Summary of Key Points from the Capex Tracker Industry Overview - The Capex Tracker indicates a trend of capital expenditure (Capex) cuts across various industries, with notable exceptions in Technology and Utilities [3][4]. Core Observations - General Industrial Capex is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% for the period 2024-2028, which is a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous update in July [3][4]. - Positive growth in Capex is observed in the following sectors: - **Datacenters**: 26.5% CAGR, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from July [4]. - **Pulp & Paper**: Improvement noted, but specific growth figures not provided [3]. - **Conventional Power Generation**: Positive outlook with companies like Wartsila and Accelleron showing growth [3]. - **Mining**: Companies such as Epiroc and FLSmidth are expected to benefit [3]. - Conversely, significant declines are noted in: - **Vehicles/Autos**: Negative growth, with a decrease of 1.8 percentage points to 2.0% CAGR [4]. - **Pharma and Biotech**: Both sectors are experiencing negative trends, with Biotech showing a decline of 8.6% [4]. Detailed Capex Growth by Sector - **Datacenters**: - 2025 Capex growth projected at 51.7%, a significant increase of 15.2 percentage points [4]. - **Renewables and T&D**: - 2025 Capex growth at 17.5%, down by 8.0 percentage points [4]. - **Semiconductors**: - 2025 Capex growth at 15.7%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points [4]. - **Healthcare**: - 2025 Capex growth projected at 0.0%, indicating stagnation [4]. - **Consumer Sector**: - 2025 Capex growth at 0.7%, reflecting a decline of 1.1 percentage points [4]. Additional Insights - The Capex Tracker highlights a robust growth trajectory in Datacenters, Renewables, and Mining, while traditional sectors like Vehicles and Pharma are facing headwinds [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these trends for potential investment opportunities and risks in the respective sectors [3][4]. Conclusion - The Capex Tracker serves as a critical tool for understanding industry trends and making informed investment decisions, particularly in identifying sectors poised for growth versus those facing challenges [3][4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Capital Goods - **China's Economic Performance**: China's GDP growth in H1 was +5.3% YoY, supported by export frontloading and government stimulus. However, signs of a sequential slowdown are emerging, with manufacturing and infrastructure fixed asset investment (FAI) declining by -1.3% and -6.4% YoY in August, compared to -0.3% and -2% YoY in July [1][29] - **GDP Growth Forecasts**: The GDP growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2025 have been revised down to +4.5% and +4% YoY, respectively, while the FY forecasts for 2025-2027 remain unchanged at +4.7% to +4.1% YoY [1][29] - **Market Conditions**: Companies exposed to China are facing a difficult market, with a shift towards local-for-local strategies due to increasing competition [1] Automation Sector - **Market Recovery**: A mild recovery in the China Automation market is expected in 2025, with Factory Automation (FA) orders showing strength, particularly in the battery segment. Domestic companies like Inovance reported FA orders up over 20% YoY in August [2][30] - **Inventory Levels**: Distributors' inventories for major companies like Siemens and Omron have normalized, which is expected to support growth moving forward [2][30] - **Forecast Adjustments**: The growth forecast for the China Automation market has been cut to +0.2% YoY for 2025, with Factory Automation revised to +1.7% YoY due to demand uncertainty and weaker-than-expected demand from electronics [31] Construction Sector - **Property Market Outlook**: The outlook for the China property market remains weak, with new home sales down 9.7% YoY in August. No meaningful recovery is expected in the near term due to lack of government support [3][48] - **Construction Machinery Demand**: Demand for construction machinery is positive, driven by large infrastructure projects and increased government support for modernization projects [3][48] Consumer Sector - **Retail Sales Trends**: Retail sales growth slowed to +3.4% YoY in August, down from +3.7% in July, indicating a peaking of consumer durable subsidies. However, expectations for future spending are at a 16-month high, with 46% of respondents expecting to increase spending in the next six months [4][61][66] Key Companies and Their Exposure to China - **Company Exposure**: Kone has the highest exposure to China, with 26% of group sales in FY23, down from 31% in FY22. Other companies with significant exposure include Atlas, Metso, and ABB [9][10] - **Performance Insights**: Siemens Digital Industries reported a 19% YoY revenue growth in China for Q3'25, driven by strong demand in the battery segment [34][37] Additional Insights - **Manufacturing PMI**: The NBS manufacturing PMI for August was 49.4, indicating continued demand weakness, with new orders remaining in contraction territory [14][17] - **Price Pressures**: Rising purchase and producer prices indicate ongoing cost pressures, exacerbated by tariffs and trade tensions [17][22] - **Government Policy**: Limited room for substantial easing efforts from the government is anticipated, with policymakers comfortable with the current growth trajectory [29] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the capital goods sector, particularly in relation to the Chinese market.

Summary of China Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Equity Market - **Key Focus**: 1H25 results, 15th Five-Year Plan, sector performance, and investment strategies Key Findings from 1H25 Results - **Performance Metrics**: Among 445 A and H share companies, 28% reported earnings beats, 40% in-line, and 31% misses [3][14] - **Top Performing Sectors**: - **Transportation**: 67% beats due to strong volume gains and cost control - **Semi-conductor**: 46% beats driven by revenue growth from tariff pull-ins and localization - **Industrial**: 40% beats attributed to margin expansion from lower commodity costs [14][15] - **Underperforming Sectors**: - **Utilities**: 55% misses due to weaker gas demand and renewable tariff cuts - **Small Caps & Education**: 45% misses linked to muted macro conditions - **Hardware**: 43% misses primarily from auto and surveillance demand [14][15] Economic Outlook for 2H25 - **GDP Growth**: PRC GDP grew by 5.3% in 1H25, exceeding the target of 5.0% for 2025 [21] - **PPI/CPI Trends**: PPI down 2.8% and CPI down 0.1% in 1H25, indicating challenges in industrial production prices [21] - **Government Focus**: Emphasis on supply-side reforms to boost CPI/PPI in 2H25, with key themes including economic development, technological innovation, social welfare, green development, and reform [4][20] Sector Recommendations - **Upgrades**: - **Healthcare and Insurance**: Upgraded to overweight due to aging population and increasing insurance needs [5] - **Downgrades**: - **Telecom and Oil & Gas**: Downgraded to underweight due to low profit growth and reduced price competitiveness [5] - **Technology Sector**: Increased weighting expected to benefit from the 15th Five-Year Plan [5] Index Target Revisions - **HSI Targets**: Revised targets for HSI are 26,800 (+7%) by end-2025, 27,500 (+6%) by mid-2026, and 28,800 by end-2026, driven by higher EPS growth [6] - **Valuation Metrics**: HSI's forward P/E at 10.3x and PB at 1.2x are in line with historical averages [6] Top Investment Picks - **H-Share Top Buys**: - Hengrui (Healthcare) - Sunny Optical - ASMPT - **Removed from Top Buys**: Anta, Huaneng Power, and BYD [7] Additional Insights - **Consumer Sector**: Anticipated shifts in consumer behavior and potential government pro-consumption policies in 2H25 [20] - **Yield Plays**: Domestic investors are focusing on yield plays amid cautious outlook for the PRC economy [22][23] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a mixed performance in the Chinese equity market for 1H25, with significant sectoral variations. The outlook for 2H25 suggests a focus on supply-side reforms and strategic investments in healthcare, technology, and insurance sectors, while maintaining caution in telecom and oil & gas. The revised index targets reflect optimism for EPS growth driven by government initiatives and market dynamics.

Summary of China's Exports (June 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's export performance across various industries, highlighting significant year-over-year (YoY) growth in specific sectors and regions. Key Points Export Growth Statistics - China's overall export value increased by **6% year-to-date (YTD)** YoY as of June 2025 [8] - Notable YoY growth in specific goods: - Natural rubber: **+450%** - Aluminium ore: **+243%** - Electroplating machines: **+155%** [13] Sector Contributions - The sectors contributing most to YoY incremental exports in June included: - Low-value simplified exports/imports: **+16% YoY** - Semiconductors: **+11% YoY** - Other semiconductors: **+9% YoY** [19] Regional Export Performance - Exports to various regions showed mixed results: - **Africa**: +21% YoY - **ASEAN**: +13% YoY - **Latin America**: +7% YoY - **Europe**: +5% YoY - **United States**: -11% YoY [11] Declines in Specific Markets - Exports to the US and Mexico decreased by **16%** and **13%** YoY, respectively [3] - The healthcare and consumer sectors recorded the largest declines in exports to the US and Mexico [3] Sector-Specific Insights - Utilities was the only industry to record YoY growth in exports to both the US and Mexico [3] - In the EU, miscellaneous goods drove growth, while rare earth and tobacco saw an increasing share of exports [4] - Exports to ASEAN were driven by miscellaneous goods and autos, with battery materials and rare gas showing increased shares [5] Notable Sector Performance - The **healthcare sector** faced significant challenges, with pharmaceuticals experiencing a **-52%** decline in exports to the US [29] - The **automotive sector** showed varied performance, with passenger vehicles down **-69%** YoY in June [29] Incremental Export Value Breakdown - The top sectors contributing to incremental export value in June included: - Low-value simplified exports/imports: **16%** - Semiconductors: **11%** - Electrical equipment: **8%** [19] Summary of Key Sectors - **Technology**: +11% YoY - **Consumer**: -2% YoY - **Industrials**: +13% YoY - **Basic materials**: +7% YoY - **Utilities**: +57% YoY [9] Conclusion - The report indicates a complex landscape for China's exports, with significant growth in certain sectors and regions, while others face substantial declines. The data suggests a need for strategic adjustments in response to changing global market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Prysmian (PRY IM) with a target price of EUR74 and Emerson Electric (EMR US) with a target price of USD153, indicating positive investment opportunities in the capital goods sector [7][15][76][77]. Core Insights - The HSBC Global Composite Capex Lead Indicator declined to -30 in May 2025 from -7 in March 2025, reflecting a slowdown in global capital expenditure due to tariff volatility, although some sectors showed improvement [7][21]. - The FTSE World Industrials Index has shown resilience, increasing by 9% quarter-to-date despite geopolitical uncertainties and tariff-related challenges [7][14]. - The report highlights a potential for positive performance in the FTSE World Industrials over the next six months, supported by a reading of -30 in the lead indicator [7][21]. Summary by Sections Global Capex Outlook - The report forecasts global capex to reach approximately USD3.9 trillion in 2025, with sectors like Software, Airlines, and Computer Hardware expected to lead growth [23][24]. - The capital goods sector is experiencing varied performance across regions, with EMEA showing improvement while APAC and the Americas faced declines [7][31][35]. Regional Analysis - **Americas**: The capex lead indicator declined marginally to -36 in May 2025, with mixed performance across sectors; manufacturing improved while construction and utilities declined [31][32]. - **EMEA**: The capex lead indicator improved to -11 in May 2025, driven by early-cycle improvements in manufacturing and transport [33][34]. - **Asia Pacific**: The capex lead indicator fell to -40 in May 2025, primarily due to a significant decline in mainland China, although Japan showed some improvement [35][36]. Subsector Performance - **Manufacturing**: The lead indicator improved to +13 in May 2025, with positive trends in the Americas and EMEA, while mainland China declined [43][44]. - **Utilities**: The lead indicator rose significantly to +45 in May 2025, indicating strong growth in solar and gas generation investments [56][57]. - **Consumer**: The lead indicator improved slightly to -56 in May 2025, with low-level improvements in the Americas and EMEA, while Japan and mainland China saw declines [58][59]. Stock Recommendations - **Prysmian**: The company is well-positioned to benefit from US electrification trends and has a strong demand outlook in the T&D segment, justifying a Buy rating [68][69]. - **Emerson Electric**: The company is expected to benefit from a transformation towards automation and improved margins, leading to a Buy rating with a target price of USD153 [76][77].

Core Viewpoint - New Providence Acquisition Corp. III will allow holders of its initial public offering units to separately trade Class A ordinary shares and warrants starting June 16, 2025 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - New Providence Acquisition Corp. III is a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) incorporated in the Cayman Islands, aiming to effect a merger, amalgamation, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses [2] - The company primarily seeks to acquire and operate a business in the consumer industry but is open to opportunities in any business or industry at any stage of corporate evolution [2] Group 2: Trading Information - Starting June 16, 2025, holders of the units sold in the initial public offering can elect to separately trade the Class A ordinary shares and warrants [1] - The separated Class A ordinary shares and warrants will trade on the Nasdaq Global Market under the symbols "NPAC" and "NPACW," respectively, while units that are not separated will continue to trade under the symbol "NPACU" [1]

Group 1 - RH (NYSE: RH) stock has significantly underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index since the end of 2021, making it a challenging holding for investors who bought in during that year [1] - The company has faced difficulties in maintaining its stock value, indicating potential issues in its business model or market positioning [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific financial metrics or performance data for RH, focusing instead on the general sentiment surrounding the stock's performance [1]