2 September 2025 | 5:00AM EDT US Tariff Impact Tracker: Data Still Pointing to Potential for Near-Term Import Weakness; Volatile Trends Continue US Tariff Impact Tracker – Laden vessels from China to USA dropped sequentially by 10% and were down 19% on a YoY basis. Data suggests 2H-August is shaping up to be up and down before turning more negative into the initial part of September based on Port of LA data - continuing the uncertain trends post the initial China surge. Full ramifications from the recent ta ...

Flexport, the tech-focused freight forwarder, is joining with BlackRock to double its supply-chain financing pool to $250 million as tariffs raise costs for U.S. retailers and manufacturers https://t.co/eO9gQqJwsz ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the impact of tariffs on global supply chains, particularly freight flows from China to the USA, highlighting ongoing volatility and potential near-term weaknesses in imports [1][2][4]. Core Observations - Laden vessels from China to the USA decreased by 5% sequentially and 21% year-over-year (YoY) [3][8]. - Expected imports into the Port of Los Angeles are projected to decline by 15% in the upcoming week, with a further anticipated drop of 31% two weeks later [3][36]. - Rail intermodal volumes on the West Coast saw a 1% YoY decline, indicating a potential shift in import trends [3][43]. - Ocean container rates fell by 10% sequentially and are down 76% YoY, reflecting significant pressure on shipping costs [3][32]. Tariff Impact and Future Projections - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead shippers and retailers to delay orders, potentially resulting in an underwhelming peak season for freight volumes and revenues [5][6]. - A potential re-stock event in 2026 could occur if consumer spending remains resilient during the 2025 holiday season, which would positively impact freight flows and margins [5][6]. Stock Recommendations - The report suggests that transport stocks may face downward pressure in the second half of 2025 if consumer demand does not increase [6][7]. - Freight forwarders like EXPD and CHRW are expected to benefit from volatility and potential surges in demand due to tariff-related delays [6][7]. - Parcel services (UPS and FDX) are also positioned to capitalize on increased demand for air freight during this period [6][7]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of analyzing high-frequency data to understand trade volumes and pricing trends, cautioning against drawing conclusions from short-term fluctuations [2][8]. - The Logistics Managers Index indicates that upstream inventories are expanding while downstream retail inventories are contracting, suggesting a potential mismatch in supply chain dynamics [70][71]. - The Supply Chain Congestion Tracker indicates that overall fluidity levels are returning to pre-COVID baselines, reflecting improvements in logistics [48][50]. Conclusion - The ongoing volatility in freight flows from China to the USA, influenced by tariff policies and consumer demand, presents both risks and opportunities for investors in the transport sector. The potential for a re-stock event in 2026 could provide a favorable outlook if consumer resilience persists [5][6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **transportation industry**, specifically the impact of **US tariffs** on freight flows from **China to the USA** [1][2][5]. Core Observations - **Laden vessels** from China to the USA decreased by **8% sequentially** and **21% year-over-year (YoY)**, indicating a significant decline in shipping activity [1][5]. - The **Port of Los Angeles** is expected to see a **13% increase** in sequential imports, but a potential **12% decrease** is anticipated in the following weeks, reflecting volatility in shipping patterns [5][36]. - **Rail intermodal volumes** on the West Coast increased by **2% YoY**, suggesting a recovery in logistics as inventory levels normalize [5]. - **Container rates** have dropped by **8% sequentially** and are under pressure, down **70% YoY**, indicating a challenging pricing environment for shipping companies [5][32]. Tariff Impact and Future Projections - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead shippers to delay orders, potentially resulting in a lackluster peak season for freight volumes and revenues [6]. - If consumer demand remains resilient, a **re-stock event** could occur in **2026**, benefiting freight flows and margins after a prolonged period of destocking [6]. - Goldman Sachs economists have reduced the recession forecast to **30%** and increased the GDP outlook for Q4 to **1.3%**, suggesting a more favorable economic environment for transportation [8]. Stock Recommendations - **Truckers** have been upgraded due to a reduced likelihood of recession and resilient consumer demand [8]. - **Freight forwarders** like **EXPD** and **CHRW** are expected to benefit from volatility and potential surges in demand due to tariff-related delays [8]. - **Parcel services** (UPS and FedEx) are also positioned to gain from increased demand for air freight during peak seasons [8]. - **Intermodal services** on the West Coast (UNP and JBHT) may benefit from increased imports, although challenges could arise in the second half of 2025 if demand does not recover [8]. Additional Insights - The **Logistics Managers Index** indicates that upstream inventories are expanding, while downstream retail inventories are contracting, reflecting differing dynamics in supply chain management [73]. - The **Supply Chain Congestion Tracker** shows a slight increase in congestion, indicating that fluidity levels are returning to pre-COVID baselines [52]. - **Air cargo rates** from Shanghai to LA increased by **18% month-over-month** in July, highlighting ongoing volatility in shipping costs [60]. Conclusion - The transportation industry is currently facing significant challenges due to tariff impacts and fluctuating demand. However, there are potential opportunities for recovery and growth in the coming years, particularly if consumer spending remains strong and inventory levels stabilize.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **transportation industry**, specifically the impact of **US tariffs** on freight flows from **China to the USA** [1][2][5]. Core Observations - **Laden vessels** from China to the USA decreased by **4% sequentially** and **19% year-over-year (YoY)**, indicating a softening trend that may persist through mid-August based on data from the **Port of Los Angeles** [1][5]. - The **tariff-related impacts** are still unfolding, and the upcoming weeks are critical for understanding shipper reactions as the peak season approaches [1][6]. - **Weekly data** can be volatile, but analyzing it over multiple weeks can reveal trends related to tariffs [3][9]. Freight Flow Data - **Container rates** have dropped by **8% sequentially** and are under significant pressure, down **67% YoY** [5][29]. - **Rail intermodal volumes** on the West Coast increased by **1% YoY**, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive growth, suggesting a recovery in logistics following previous disruptions [5][40]. - Planned **TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units)** into the Port of Los Angeles are expected to drop by **3%** in the near term, with a potential **20% increase** two weeks later [5][33]. Future Projections - The **2025 trade scenario** suggests that shippers may delay orders due to uncertainty, which could lead to an underwhelming peak season in terms of volume and revenue [6]. - If a **re-stock event** occurs in 2026, it could significantly benefit freight flows and margins, especially if consumer spending remains strong during the holiday season [6]. Stock Recommendations - **Transport stocks** may face downward pressure in the second half of 2025 if consumer demand does not increase [8]. - **Freight forwarders** like **EXPD** and **CHRW** are expected to benefit from volatility and potential surges in demand due to tariff pauses [8]. - **Parcel companies** such as **UPS** and **FDX** are also positioned to gain from increased demand for air freight during peak seasons [8]. Additional Insights - The **Logistics Managers Index** indicates that upstream inventories are expanding, while downstream inventories are contracting, reflecting a complex inventory landscape [69]. - The **Supply Chain Congestion Tracker** remains stable, suggesting fluidity in logistics comparable to pre-COVID levels [48][50]. - The **Big Three ports** (LA, Long Beach, Oakland) experienced a **5% YoY decline** in volumes but a **21% sequential increase** from May to June, indicating a recovery trend [52]. Conclusion - The transportation industry is navigating a challenging environment influenced by tariffs, consumer behavior, and inventory management. The upcoming months will be crucial for assessing the impact on freight flows and stock performance in the sector [1][6][8].

Summary of Freightos (CRGO) FY Conference Call - August 11, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Freightos (CRGO) - **Industry**: Global freight and logistics, focusing on digitalizing shipping processes Key Points and Arguments Industry Context - The global shipping industry is valued at approximately **$600 billion** annually, with **90%** of products in stores in the US and Europe being imported [9][8] - The industry remains largely offline, presenting a significant opportunity for digital transformation [6][7] Business Model - Freightos aims to be the **Booking.com or Expedia** for global freight, providing a digital platform for shipping [8] - The company operates two segments: - **Platform**: Transactional revenue from bookings - **Solutions**: Subscription-based revenue from software and data services [30] Financial Performance - The company has seen a **26% growth** in the number of transactions and a **24% increase** in booking per transaction [42] - Gross booking value increased by **56%**, exceeding expectations by **13%** [42] - The company is not yet profitable but has a clear path to profitability, projecting to reach positive EBITDA by Q4 of the following year [67] Market Dynamics - The freight forwarding industry consists of **100,000 freight forwarders**, with the largest handling **$2.03 trillion** annually [17] - Most transactions in the industry are still conducted via emails and phone calls, leading to inefficiencies such as **2-3 days** wait for price quotes [20][19] Digitalization Efforts - Freightos is a leader in the digitalization of the freight industry, with a focus on improving transaction speed and reducing costs [45] - The company has developed a digital customs broker, **Clearit**, to enhance its service offerings [81] AI Integration - The company is actively integrating AI to improve internal efficiencies and product offerings, particularly in dynamic pricing for airlines [51][53] - Unique data assets allow Freightos to create tailored AI solutions that competitors may find hard to replicate [54] Growth Opportunities - The ocean freight market is seen as a significant growth area, with signs of digitalization finally emerging [57] - The company is exploring ways to aggregate small importers and exporters, which represents a large market opportunity [71] Strategic Considerations - M&A is considered an option but not a necessity; the company prefers to preserve cash and focus on organic growth [68] - Partnerships with transportation management systems have been beneficial, but direct sales remain the primary revenue source [66] Regulatory Impact - The recent removal of the **de minimis exemption** for low-value imports is expected to positively impact Freightos by increasing demand for customs brokerage services and freeing up air cargo capacity [80][82] Additional Important Insights - The company has established a strategic footprint by owning both the backend (Webcargo) and frontend (Freightos marketplace) of its platform, creating barriers to competition [28][30] - The growth dynamic of marketplaces is emphasized, where increased participation from buyers and sellers enhances overall platform value [64] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Freightos FY conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning, market dynamics, and growth potential in the logistics industry.

Summary of Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) Update / Briefing August 06, 2025 Industry Overview - The briefing focuses on the U.S. Customs market and recent trade actions affecting importers, particularly in relation to tariffs and trade agreements [6][7][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Recent U.S. Trade Actions**: - Six major trade actions are highlighted, with specific dates for implementation [7]. - Notable actions include the increase of tariffs on fentanyl imports from Canada and the introduction of copper tariffs from Brazil [10][11][12]. 2. **Tariff Increases**: - Fentanyl tariffs from Canada increased from 25% to 35% [13]. - Copper tariffs from Brazil set at 40%, raising the total tariff to 50% when combined with existing rates [25][26]. 3. **Reciprocal Tariffs**: - A new set of reciprocal tariffs will be implemented affecting 95 countries, with rates changing from a universal 10% to new specific rates [30][34]. - Countries with trade deficits with the U.S. may see increases in tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% [34]. 4. **In-Transit Exemptions**: - Exemptions for goods loaded on vessels before specific deadlines to avoid additional tariffs [26][56]. - Documentation is emphasized as crucial for claiming these exemptions [28][29]. 5. **Impact on India**: - An additional 25% duty on imports from India starting August 27, raising the total tariff to 50% due to geopolitical tensions [54][55]. 6. **End of De Minimis**: - The end of de minimis for low-value shipments (under $800) will apply to all countries starting August 29, requiring formal entries for all imports [59][62]. 7. **Ongoing Investigations**: - Section 232 investigations are ongoing, focusing on national security risks related to various industries, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [68][69]. 8. **Legal Challenges**: - Legal challenges against the government's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPA) are ongoing, with potential implications for future tariff enforcement [73][74][78]. 9. **Transshipment Concerns**: - The administration is concerned about transshipment practices that may evade tariffs, particularly involving inputs from non-market economies like China [82][90]. 10. **Value Chain Understanding**: - Importers are encouraged to understand the full value chain of their goods to comply with new regulations and avoid penalties [94][96]. Other Important Content - **Documentation and Compliance**: Emphasis on the importance of maintaining accurate documentation for customs declarations and understanding the life cycle of customs entries [99][100]. - **Future Outlook**: Continued monitoring of trade actions and legal developments is advised, as changes are expected to impact various sectors significantly [71][72]. This summary encapsulates the critical updates and insights from the Expeditors International briefing, focusing on the evolving landscape of U.S. trade policies and their implications for importers.

Core Insights - Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) reported second-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.34 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.24, marking an 8.1% year-over-year increase driven by higher freight volumes and customs fees [1][11] - Total revenues reached $2.65 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.4 billion, and reflecting an 8.7% year-over-year growth attributed to strong air tonnage and ocean volumes [1][11] Financial Performance - Airfreight tonnage and ocean container volume both increased by 7% during the quarter, contributing to an 11% year-over-year rise in operating income to $248 million [2] - Total operating expenses rose by 8.6% year over year to $2.4 billion [2] - Airfreight Services revenues grew by 10.6% year over year to $951.8 million, while ocean freight and services revenues increased by 3.7% to $675.8 million [3] Shareholder Returns - In the second quarter of 2025, EXPD returned $335 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks [4] - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.16 billion, slightly up from $1.15 billion at the end of 2024 [4] Strategic Outlook - The CEO of EXPD expressed optimism regarding the company's strategic initiatives aimed at maximizing operational excellence and enhancing customer service, positioning the company for organic growth and improved profitability [5]

Group 1 - Expeditors International reported $2.65 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2025, an increase of 8.7% year-over-year [1] - The company's EPS for the same period was $1.34, compared to $1.24 a year ago, reflecting an EPS surprise of +8.06% [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.4 billion by +10.52% [1] Group 2 - Airfreight services revenue was $951.79 million, surpassing the average estimate of $832.55 million by four analysts, representing a year-over-year change of +10.6% [4] - Customs brokerage and other services generated $1.02 billion in revenue, exceeding the average estimate of $915.75 million, with a year-over-year change of +10.5% [4] - Ocean freight and ocean services revenue reached $675.78 million, compared to the estimated $615.95 million, marking a +3.7% change year-over-year [4] Group 3 - Shares of Expeditors International returned +0.6% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite changed by +1% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **transportation industry**, particularly the impact of **US tariffs** on freight flows from **China to the USA** [1][2][5]. Core Observations - **Freight Volume Decline**: Laden vessels from China to the USA decreased by **15% sequentially** and **14% year-over-year (YoY)**, indicating a significant slowdown in shipping activity [1][5][13]. - **Port of Los Angeles Data**: Expected sequential imports into the Port of Los Angeles are projected to drop by **15% TEUs** (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) for the week ending August 8, with a potential **5% increase** two weeks later [5][40]. - **Rail Intermodal Volumes**: Rail intermodal volumes on the West Coast increased by **2% YoY**, marking the fourth consecutive week of positive growth, suggesting a recovery in logistics following previous disruptions [5][47]. Tariff Impact and Future Scenarios - **Tariff Effects**: The impact of the recent tariff implementations is still unfolding, with potential scenarios including: 1. A surge in orders ahead of a **90-day tariff pause** in China, leading to inventory buildup [6][11]. 2. A continued slowdown in activity due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs [6][11]. - **High Tariff Rates**: The **30% tariffs** remain high, which could dampen demand over time, especially as e-commerce faces the end of de minimis exemptions [8][11]. Market Predictions - **Transport Stock Outlook**: The analysis suggests three potential scenarios for transport stocks: 1. A significant pull-forward in orders leading to a sharp decline in freight demand in the second half of 2025 if consumer spending decreases [11]. 2. A less pronounced pull-forward, resulting in uncertainty for shippers [11]. 3. Economic stability leading to increased orders as retailers face inventory shortages, which would be beneficial for transport companies [11]. - **Recession Forecast**: Goldman Sachs economists have reduced the recession probability to **30%** and increased GDP outlook for Q4 to **1.3%**, indicating a more resilient consumer environment [11]. Freight Forwarders and Logistics - **Freight Forwarders**: Companies like **EXPD** and **CHRW** are expected to benefit from market volatility and potential surges in demand due to tariff-related shifts [11][12]. - **Parcel Services**: Companies such as **UPS** and **FDX** may also benefit from increased demand for air freight and logistics services during this period [14]. Container Rates and Shipping Trends - **Container Rates**: Container rates from China to the US West Coast remain under pressure, down **66% YoY**, despite being flat sequentially [5][37]. - **TEU Volatility**: TEU volumes from China to the US have shown volatility, with a **13% sequential decrease** and a **3% YoY increase** in the most recent week [21][25]. Conclusion - The transportation industry is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by tariffs, changing consumer behavior, and fluctuating freight volumes. The next few weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory of shipping activity and the broader economic implications for the sector [1][6][11].