DSV, the world’s largest freight forwarder, lowered the top end of its profit forecast range and said it may have to make deeper cost cuts https://t.co/1OrTv0DvDN ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Global Logistics Core Insights and Arguments - **Deceleration in Demand**: Signs of deceleration in ocean and air freight demand are emerging as ocean volume growth slowed to +3% globally in August, with a significant decline of -12% in Transpacific Eastbound volumes [1][3]. Air freight volumes also showed a modest deceleration in September, likely due to the expiration of the de minimis exemption [5][23]. - **Pressure on Ocean Rates**: Ocean freight rates are at their lowest levels since 2023, with the SCFI down over 50% year-to-date [3][20]. Key indicators such as the SCFI and WCI have seen declines of 54% and 58% respectively [20]. - **Orderbook Expansion**: The container shipping orderbook grew by +6% in Q3, with new orders equivalent to 3.4% of the in-service fleet, indicating continued investment despite oversupply risks [4][21]. - **Airfreight Performance**: Airfreight demand grew by 4% in August, but the growth rate moderated in September, with revenues below last year's levels [5][23]. The expiration of the US de minimis exemption is expected to impact future demand [23]. - **Surface Freight Outlook**: U.S. surface rates contracted in June and are expected to remain flat or decline in the second half of the year due to a softer freight outlook [6][24]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Trade Volumes**: Global trade volumes increased by 4.9% YoY in July, driven by a 6% rise in emerging market exports, while U.S. and European exports remained largely unchanged [2][18]. - **PMI Indicators**: September PMIs showed an increase in China (+0.7pt to 51.2) and the U.S. (+0.4pt to 49.1), while Europe saw a decrease for the first time this year (-0.9pt to 49.8) [2][18]. - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the logistics sector remains weak, with companies expressing pessimism regarding international ocean demand and potential challenges in achieving a meaningful peak season [3][19]. Company Ratings and Valuations Key Company Ratings - **DSV**: Rated Outperform with a target price of DKK 1,700. Expected to become the largest freight forwarder post-acquisition of DB Schenker [9]. - **DHL**: Rated Outperform with a target price of €42.00. Strongly levered to e-commerce and world trade, with a solid long-term holding outlook [10]. - **Kuehne+Nagel**: Rated Market-Perform with a target price of CHF 165. Underperformance in volume growth noted, with execution issues impacting investor sentiment [11]. - **AP Moller - Maersk**: Rated Underperform with a target price of DKK 10,600. Facing challenges in container shipping with declining spot rates and a high orderbook [12]. Valuation Comparisons - **Valuation Metrics**: DSV shows a strong growth trajectory with an expected EPS of DKK 100+ by 2028, while Maersk's strategy has been criticized for failing to deliver promised synergies [9][12]. - **Market Cap and Share Buybacks**: DSV is projected to repurchase DKK 24 billion of shares annually, compared to its current market cap of DKK 310,654 million [9]. Conclusion The global logistics industry is experiencing a notable deceleration in demand across both ocean and air freight sectors, with significant pressure on rates and a growing orderbook despite oversupply risks. Companies like DSV and DHL are positioned favorably, while others like Maersk face challenges. The overall sentiment in the logistics sector remains cautious as companies navigate a complex market landscape.

Group 1 - Freightos will present at the 19th annual LD Micro Main Event on October 20th at 01:30 PM PT [1] - The event will take place from October 19th to 21st at the Hotel del Coronado in San Diego, California [4] - Approximately 120 companies will participate in the event, presenting in half-hour increments and attending private meetings with investors [5] Group 2 - Freightos is a leading vendor-neutral global freight booking platform, connecting airlines, ocean carriers, freight forwarders, and importers/exporters [6] - The Freightos platform digitizes the international freight industry, offering software solutions for pricing, quoting, booking, shipment management, and payments [6] - Freightos provides real-time industry data through Freightos Terminal, including leading spot pricing indexes like Freightos Air Index (FAX) and Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the impact of tariffs on global supply chains, particularly freight flows from China to the USA, highlighting ongoing trends in shipping and logistics [1][2][5]. Core Observations - **Freight Volume Trends**: Laden vessels from China to the USA decreased by 6% week-over-week (WoW) and 2% year-over-year (YoY) [1][3]. - **Port of Los Angeles**: Expected sequential imports are set to decrease by 26% in the upcoming week, with a further anticipated decline of 9% two weeks later [3][35]. - **Rail Intermodal Volumes**: Experienced an 8% YoY decline, indicating a shift from previously positive growth trends [3][44]. - **Ocean Container Rates**: Rates fell by 15% sequentially and are down 73% YoY, reflecting significant pressure on shipping costs [3][32]. Potential Risks and Opportunities - **Peak Season Uncertainty**: There is concern that shippers may delay orders due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which could lead to underwhelming volume and revenue during the peak season [5][6]. - **Restocking Potential**: If consumer demand remains resilient, there could be a significant restocking event in 2026, which would positively impact freight flows and margins [5][6]. - **Transport Stocks**: The report suggests that transport stocks may face volatility in the second half of 2025 if consumer demand does not increase, but truckers have been upgraded due to a lowered recession forecast [6][5]. Additional Insights - **High Frequency Data**: The report emphasizes the importance of analyzing high-frequency data over multiple weeks to understand tariff-related trends, as weekly data can be volatile [2][4]. - **Logistics Manager Index**: The index indicates that upstream inventories expanded while downstream inventories reverted to expansion after three months of contraction [67][68]. - **Congestion Levels**: The Supply Chain Congestion Tracker indicates fluidity levels are close to pre-COVID baselines, suggesting improved logistics efficiency [51]. Conclusion - The current trends in freight volumes, shipping rates, and inventory levels indicate a complex landscape influenced by tariffs and consumer behavior. The potential for a restocking event in 2026 could provide a significant opportunity for growth in freight flows if consumer spending remains strong.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Logistics**: The logistics industry is experiencing significant changes, particularly in ocean and air freight sectors, with varying demand and pricing pressures. Ocean Freight - **Demand and Rates**: As of mid-September, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reached its lowest level since 2023, indicating a sharp decline in ocean freight rates post-peak season. Rates have dropped approximately 35% from their early June peak, with key indicators like SCFI and World Container Index (WCI) down over 50% year-to-date [1][3][21]. - **Volume Growth**: Ocean volumes increased by 5% year-over-year in July, contributing to a 5% year-to-date increase. However, there are concerns about sequential declines in volumes for Q3, particularly in trade lanes heavily exposed to forwarders [3][20]. - **Orderbook Expansion**: The orderbook for new vessels grew by 6% in Q2, with new orders equivalent to 3.6% of the in-service fleet. The projected fleet growth is 47% from 2019 to 2026, raising concerns about oversupply [4][22]. - **Suez Canal Transits**: Transits through the Suez Canal remain consistent with last year's levels, with no significant changes anticipated for 2025 [23]. Air Freight - **Stability in Volumes**: Airfreight volumes have shown mid-single-digit growth year-over-year in Q2 and summer, although yields are slightly down due to lower fuel surcharges. The overall industry revenue is up in the low single digits [5][24]. - **Risks Ahead**: The expiration of the de minimis exemption and rising tariffs pose risks to airfreight demand, particularly in the second half of the year [5][24]. Surface Freight - **Market Conditions**: U.S. surface rates contracted in June and are expected to remain flat or decline in the second half of the year due to a softer freight outlook. Carriers are cutting trans-Pacific sailings significantly ahead of tariff deadlines, leading to a challenging environment for import traffic [6][25]. Company Ratings and Insights - **DSV**: Rated as Outperform, with expectations of significant synergies from the acquisition of DB Schenker, potentially making it the largest freight forwarder by air and sea volumes by 2025 [9]. - **DHL**: Also rated Outperform, benefiting from its diversified logistics operations and strong exposure to e-commerce and global trade [10]. - **Kuehne+Nagel**: Rated Market-Perform, facing challenges in execution and volume growth compared to peers [11]. - **Maersk**: Rated Underperform, with concerns over its core container shipping business and a challenging rate environment due to high orderbook levels [13]. - **UPS**: Rated Outperform, with confidence in margin improvement due to visibility in cost moderation [16]. - **FedEx**: Rated Market-Perform, facing risks related to complex network integration in the U.S. market [16]. Economic Indicators - **Global Trade Volumes**: Increased by 3.4% year-over-year in June, driven by emerging markets and Japan, while U.S. imports declined by 2.4% [2][19]. - **PMI Trends**: August PMIs showed improvements in China (50.5), the U.S. (48.7), and Europe (50.7), indicating a potential stabilization in manufacturing activity [2][19]. Conclusion - The logistics industry is navigating a complex landscape with varying demand across ocean, air, and surface freight sectors. Companies are adapting to changing market conditions, with some poised for growth while others face significant challenges. The outlook for the second half of the year appears cautious, particularly in light of tariff uncertainties and potential oversupply in the ocean freight market.

Group 1: Indonesia's Economic Landscape - Indonesia has a population of 270 million and a rapidly expanding middle class, making it the world's largest archipelago with over 17,000 islands and 1,000 ports [1] - The Port of Tanjung Priok in Jakarta is a critical logistics hub, handling around 6% of global container transshipment annually and ranking among Southeast Asia's top three logistics centers [1] - The Jakarta International Container Terminal exceeded 2.2 million TEUs in 2024 and will continue 24-hour operations in 2025, reinforcing its role as Indonesia's vital container gateway [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Trade Opportunities - Indonesia has accelerated infrastructure upgrades across ports, airports, and digital networks, significantly improving logistics efficiency and regional connectivity [2] - With the full implementation of RCEP, Indonesia is experiencing a wave of opportunities in trade, investment, and cross-border logistics [2] Group 3: Indonesia Regional Conference 2025 - The Indonesia Regional Conference 2025 will be held in Bali on November 18–19, 2025, focusing on regional collaboration and industry differentiation [3][5] - The conference aims to provide a premium environment for rational dialogue and deep cooperation, offering access to frontier market intelligence and current industry developments [8] - Expected attendance includes over 300 global logistics and corporate representatives, fostering deeper connections through networking formats like One-on-One Meetings [11]

Equity Research 22 September 2025 | 5:01AM EDT US Tariff Impact Tracker: Up and Down Trends Seemingly to Persist US Tariff Impact Tracker – this past week, laden vessels from China to USA were down sequentially (-7% WoW) and remained down on a YoY basis (-13% YoY). Data suggests late-September and early-October is shaping up to be mostly mixed sequentially based on Port of LA data (up next week, down first week of Oct), following 2H-August and early/mid-September reads that were generally weak – continuing ...

Core Viewpoint - Flexport expects to achieve profitability by 2025, primarily due to the sale of the Convoy freight-matching platform for $250 million, which significantly exceeds its burn rate for the year [1][2]. Company Summary - The sale of Convoy is described as a "one-time event" that is crucial for Flexport's financial goals [1]. - Without the Convoy sale, Flexport would struggle to meet its profitability target for 2025, but it remains optimistic about achieving profitability by 2026 through organic growth and market expansion [2]. - Flexport has recently opened an office in Indonesia and plans to enter six additional countries in 2026 [3]. Industry Summary - The logistics industry, including Flexport, has faced challenges due to decreased demand and slower shipping volume growth, leading to lower freight rates [4]. - Major package delivery companies like UPS and FedEx have also been affected, implementing significant cost-cutting measures to enhance efficiency [4]. - The industry has experienced volatility due to tariff changes, which have disrupted freight bookings and caused fluctuations in shipping volumes [5]. - Flexport's air freight operations have been impacted by the closure of the duty-free de minimis provision, affecting trade volumes from Asia to the U.S. [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the impact of tariffs on global supply chains, particularly freight flows from China to the USA, highlighting a significant decline in laden vessels and TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) [1][4][9]. Core Observations - Laden vessels from China to the USA decreased by 10% sequentially and 19% year-over-year (YoY) [1][4]. - The Port of Los Angeles is expected to see a 26% decline in sequential imports by September 5, with a potential recovery of 30% in the following weeks [4][36]. - Rail intermodal volumes on the West Coast fell by 5% YoY, indicating a shift in freight movement patterns [4][43]. - Ocean container rates are under pressure, down 1% sequentially and 75% YoY [4][32]. Tariff Impact and Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the full impact of recent tariff implementations is yet to be realized, with potential volatility in shipping activity as peak season approaches [1][6]. - There is a risk that shippers may delay orders due to uncertainty, which could lead to underwhelming peak season volumes and revenue [6][7]. - A potential re-stock event in 2026 is anticipated if consumer spending remains resilient during the holiday season, which could positively affect freight flows and margins [6]. Recommendations for Transport Stocks - The report notes that transport stocks may face downward pressure if consumer demand does not increase post-peak season [7]. - Trucking companies have been upgraded due to a reduced likelihood of recession and resilient consumer behavior [7]. - Freight forwarders like EXPD and CHRW are expected to benefit from market volatility and potential surges in demand due to tariff pauses [7]. - Parcel services (UPS and FDX) are also positioned to capitalize on increased demand for air freight during peak periods [7]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the volatility of weekly data and the importance of analyzing trends over a multi-week basis to understand tariff-related impacts [5][9]. - The Logistics Managers Index indicates a decline in inventory levels for retailers, suggesting a cautious approach to inventory management [69][73]. - The Supply Chain Congestion Tracker shows fluidity levels returning to pre-COVID baselines, indicating improved logistics conditions [48][50]. Conclusion - The current trends in freight flows from China to the USA reflect significant challenges due to tariffs and market volatility, with potential implications for transport stocks and overall supply chain dynamics. The upcoming months will be critical in determining the trajectory of these trends as peak season approaches and consumer behavior evolves.

Financial Initiatives - Flexport 与 BlackRock 合作，将其供应链融资池增加一倍，达到 250 million 美元 [1] Industry Impact - 关税提高增加了美国零售商和制造商的成本 [1]