What the Tracker Is: What We Disseminate Weekly: High frequency data to help assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains and the accompanying ramifications on the flows of freight (e.g., expected ships leaving from China to USA). While we think our data set is representative, we do plan to periodically add new data series as they become available. It is important to recognize that weekly data can be volatile, with a fair bit of noise depending on timing – but we still think looking at the d ...

Forward Air (NasdaqGS:FWRD) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 23, 2026 04:30 PM ET Company ParticipantsBruce Chan - Managing DirectorHarrison Bauer - Sell-Side Equity Research AssociateJamie Pierson - CFOShawn Stewart - President and CEOStephanie Moore - SVP, Equity ResearchTony Carreño - SVP of Treasury and Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsScott Group - Managing Director and Senior AnalystOperatorGood afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Forward Air's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings confere ...

Forward Air (NasdaqGS:FWRD) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 23, 2026 04:30 PM ET Speaker3Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Forward Air's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star one on your telephone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from ...

Core Insights - Saia Inc. continues its partnership with Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season, serving as the primary sponsor for eight races, including seven for Ty Gibbs and one for Christopher Bell [1][2] Company Overview - Saia Inc. provides a comprehensive range of transportation solutions, including less-than-truckload, non-asset truckload, expedited, and logistics services, operating 213 terminals across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico [3][6] - The company has been recognized for its safety record by the American Trucking Associations and for its environmental efforts by the EPA's SmartWay program [6] Partnership Details - The partnership with JGR is aimed at enhancing brand awareness and reinforcing Saia's commitment to performance and reliability in the logistics sector [2][5] - The first race as a primary sponsor will take place on February 22 at EchoPark Speedway, with additional races scheduled throughout the season at various prominent tracks [2] Joe Gibbs Racing Overview - JGR has established itself as a leading team in NASCAR, with five Cup Series championships and over 400 national series victories since its founding in 1992 [4] - Ty Gibbs, a rising star in NASCAR, has achieved significant milestones, including winning the 2021 ARCA Menards Series and the 2022 Xfinity Series championships, and earning the Sunoco Rookie of the Year honors in 2023 [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated over $10 per share of free cash flow in 2025, totaling $832 million for the year, with a 25% increase in fourth quarter free cash flow compared to the previous year [4][6] - Total revenue before fuel surcharge was $1.7 billion, down from $1.8 billion a year earlier, with operating income of $127 million, reflecting a margin of 7.6% [5][6] - Net cash from operating activities improved to $282 million, an 8% increase over the prior year quarter [6] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - LTL (Less Than Truckload) revenue was $661 million, down 10% year-over-year, with operating income of $62 million and an adjusted operating ratio (OR) of 89.9 [6][7] - Truckload revenue was $674 million, down from $693 million the prior year, with operating income of $48 million and an OR of 93.2% [8] - Logistics revenue was $358 million, down from $410 million, with operating income of $31 million and a margin of 8.7% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted modest signs of stabilization in overall freight dynamics, with a focus on preparing for a potential industry rebound [4] - The U.S. LTL market remains soft, with expectations of continued challenges in 2026 [16][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes strong free cash flow generation and strategic capital allocation, including opportunistic share repurchases and dividend increases [5][10] - There is a focus on improving operational efficiency and service quality, particularly in the U.S. LTL segment, with plans to enhance management tools and sales stability [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a challenging environment in 2026, particularly for LTL, while expressing cautious optimism for improvements in truckload and logistics segments [16][17] - The company is preparing for potential upturns in the truckload sector, driven by regulatory changes and market dynamics [14][18] Other Important Information - The company announced a change in its board of directors, with André Bérard retiring and Diane Giard appointed as the new lead director [11] - The company is exploring smaller acquisition opportunities while remaining cautious about larger deals until market conditions stabilize [74][75] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for fiscal year and scenarios for 2026 - Management provided guidance of $0.50-$0.60 for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious outlook due to ongoing freight recession [14] Question: Segment margin drivers behind EPS guidance - Management expects around 250 basis points of sequential margin deterioration in U.S. LTL, with unique challenges in Q1 due to weather impacts [32] Question: Pricing improvements in contracted rates - Spot rates are increasing, but long-term contract rates are slower to adjust, with expectations for future improvements as supply and demand dynamics shift [42][44] Question: Specialty truckload business outlook - Management highlighted early signs of improvement in specialty truckload, particularly in energy and industrial sectors, with a focus on high-value freight [56][58] Question: Impact of non-domiciled CDL on capacity - The company noted that the impact of non-domiciled CDL is more pronounced in the van segment than in specialty truckload, with expectations for gradual improvements in revenue per mile [90] Question: Logistics segment performance and margin expansion - Management confirmed that logistics margins expanded sequentially from Q3 to Q4, with ongoing efforts to improve service metrics [63][64]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated over $10 per share of free cash flow in 2025, totaling $832 million for the year, with fourth quarter free cash flow being 25% higher than the previous year [3][4] - Total revenue before fuel surcharge for the fourth quarter was $1.7 billion, down from $1.8 billion a year earlier, with operating income of $127 million and a margin of 7.6% [4][5] - Net cash from operating activities improved to $282 million, an 8% increase over the prior year quarter [5] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - LTL (Less Than Truckload) revenue was $661 million, down 10% year-over-year, with operating income of $62 million and an adjusted operating ratio (OR) of 89.9 [5][6] - Truckload revenue was $674 million, down from $693 million the prior year, with operating income of $48 million and an OR of 93.2% [6] - Logistics revenue was $358 million, down from $410 million, with operating income of $31 million and a margin of 8.7% [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the year with a 2.5 times funded debt to EBITDA ratio, maintaining a strong balance sheet [8] - The company anticipates adjusted diluted EPS for Q1 2026 to be in the range of $0.50-$0.60, reflecting a cautious outlook due to ongoing market conditions [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on strategic capital allocation, investing for the long term and returning excess capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [4] - The management is preparing for a potential industry rebound while controlling costs and improving operational efficiency [3][4] - The company is exploring accretive bolt-on acquisition opportunities, with a focus on smaller regional deals rather than large acquisitions due to market uncertainties [8][76] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that the freight recession persists, particularly in the LTL sector, but there are early signs of improvement in the truckload sector [12][14] - The Canadian market is performing better than the U.S. market, with a focus on improving service and reducing claims ratios [15] - The management expressed optimism about logistics improving in Q3 and Q4 of 2026, driven by customer demand in the energy sector and data centers [14][72] Other Important Information - The company announced a change in its board of directors, with André Bérard retiring and Diane Giard nominated as the new lead director [9] - The company is focused on transitioning away from retail freight towards industrial freight, aiming to increase the weight per shipment [60][61] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for fiscal year and scenarios for 2026 - Management indicated that Q1 guidance reflects a cautious outlook due to ongoing freight recession, with early signs of improvement in truckload [11][12] Question: Segment margin-related drivers behind EPS guidance - Management expects around 250 basis points of sequential margin deterioration in U.S. LTL, with weather impacting costs significantly [24][30] Question: Pricing improvements in contracted rates - Management noted that while spot rates are increasing, contracted rates take longer to adjust, and the supply-demand balance is beginning to shift [40][41] Question: Specialty truckload business and industrial activity - Management highlighted early signs of industrial activity, particularly in the energy sector, and emphasized the importance of focusing on high-value freight [52][54] Question: Impact of non-domiciled CDL on specialty flatbed - Management noted that the impact is more pronounced in the van segment, with less benefit seen in specialty truckload due to unique skill requirements [88][90]

Volumes were down but freight rates continued to move higher in January, according to monthly data from Cass Information Systems. Cass’ (NASDAQ: CASS) multimodal shipments index declined 7.1% year over year (down 14.7% on a two-year comparison) to a reading not seen since 2009—the tail end of the Global Financial Crisis. Shipments were down 2% from December on a seasonally adjusted comp. Severe winter weather and retailers holding less inventory to start the year pushed shipments lower in the month. Som ...

Core Viewpoint - Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) is expected to report a decline in earnings per share (EPS) and revenues for the fourth quarter of 2025, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate indicating a year-over-year decrease of 13.1% in EPS and a 5.4% contraction in revenues [1][2][7]. Financial Performance Expectations - The earnings per share for the upcoming quarter is estimated at $1.46, while revenues are projected to be $2.8 billion [1][2]. - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate stands at $11.01 billion, reflecting a 3.9% year-over-year increase, and the EPS estimate is $5.92, indicating a 3.5% increase year-over-year [2][3]. Segment Performance Insights - The airfreight services segment is expected to perform well, with revenues estimated at $1.04 billion, surpassing the previous quarter's figures, driven by growth in airfreight tonnage from North and South Asia [6][7]. - Customs brokerage and other services revenues are projected to reach $1.07 billion, marking a 9% increase from the same quarter in 2024 [8]. - Conversely, the ocean freight segment is anticipated to underperform, with revenues estimated at $688 million, reflecting a decline due to oversupply and weak demand in U.S.-China trade [8][9]. Market Conditions and Challenges - The company faces challenges from significant exposure to China, with weakening demand on trans-Pacific routes impacting results [9]. - The overall transportation industry is experiencing pressures from oversupply in ocean freight, which is contributing to downward pressure on rates [8][9]. Historical Performance - In the previous four quarters, Expeditors has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 13.9% [4]. - The most recent third-quarter results showed earnings of $1.64 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.40, although total revenues decreased by 4% year-over-year [10].

Company Announcement - Algorhythm's SemiCab platform is an AI-driven optimization system designed for shippers and carriers, enabling customers to scale freight volumes by 300% to 400% without increasing staff [2] - Individual operators using SemiCab can manage over 2,000 loads annually, significantly higher than the industry average of about 500 loads per broker [2] Platform Benefits - The SemiCab platform automates network-level planning and decision-making, which helps lower cost per load, reduces administrative work, and enhances asset utilization as volumes increase [3] Market Reaction - The Dow Jones Transportation Average experienced a 4% decline, marking its worst session since April, with 17 of 20 components closing lower and approximately $17.4 billion in market value lost [4] - Despite being a company valued at less than $3 million with no U.S. software customers, Algorhythm's performance contributed to significant market volatility, affecting larger companies like C.H. Robinson [4] Stock Performance - Algorhythm shares rose by 16.67%, reaching $1.26 at the time of publication [5]

Core Insights - The market provides limited opportunities for investors to acquire shares in quality companies at favorable valuations, particularly in cyclical sectors where stocks may rise before financial recovery is confirmed [1] Group 1 - Investors often see cyclical stocks increase in value ahead of any confirmation of underlying financial recovery [1]