Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Xiaomi's strong financial performance in Q2 2025, with total revenue reaching 116 billion yuan, marking a 30.5% year-on-year increase, and an adjusted net profit of 10.8 billion yuan, up 75.4% year-on-year [1] - The automotive business is experiencing rapid growth, with revenue from smart electric vehicles and AI innovations reaching 21.3 billion yuan, and new car deliveries totaling 81,302 units in Q2, surpassing 300,000 units cumulatively by July [1] - Xiaomi's smartphone segment continues to achieve high-end market penetration, with smartphone shipments of 42.4 million units, maintaining a top-three global position for five consecutive years, and a market share of 24.7% in the 4,000-5,000 yuan price range, ranking first [1] Group 2 - The IoT business has reached a historical high, with revenue from IoT and lifestyle consumer products at 38.7 billion yuan, a 44.7% year-on-year increase, and a significant growth of 66.2% in smart home appliance revenue [1] - Research and development investment has significantly increased, with R&D spending at 7.8 billion yuan, a 41.2% year-on-year growth, and the total number of R&D personnel reaching a record high of 22,641 [2] - Xiaomi has launched its self-developed 3nm flagship SoC chip, named Xuanjie O1, and achieved notable performance records with its SU7 Ultra model at the Nürburgring racetrack [2]

盈利预测及评级 机构：国联民生证券 我们预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为4744/5887/6964 亿元，同比分别+30%/24%/18%；归母净利 润分别为437/567/714 亿元，同比分别+85%/30%/26%，对应EPS 分别为1.68/2.18/2.74 元/股，CAGR-3 为45%。考虑到公司人车家生态实现闭环，有望迎来高质量经营发展，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；高端化和全球化不及预期；贸易关税风险。 研究员：高登/郇正林/管泉森 汽车：规模效应加速释放，YU7 上市推动成长加速Q2 公司智能电动等创新业务收入213 亿元，同比 +234%，环比+14%，主要得益于交付持续爬坡以及ASP 提升。Q2 公司汽车交付量达到8.1 万辆，同比 +198%，环比+7%，ASP 达到25.4 万元，同比+11%，主要系高单价的SU7 Ultra 交付增加。Q2 公司汽 车业务毛利率为26.4%，同比+11pct，环比+3pct，受益饱满订单以及产能爬坡，公司汽车业务规模效应 持续增强。Q2 智能电动等创新业务经营亏损为3 亿元，环比收窄，6 月小米第二车YU7 上市， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported record high revenue and adjusted net profit for Q2 2025, driven by strong performance in various business segments, particularly in IoT and automotive sectors [1][2][3]. Automotive - Q2 2025 revenue from smart electric vehicles and AI-related businesses reached 213 billion, with a sequential increase of 14.4%, while operating losses narrowed from 5 billion to 3 billion [2] - The gross margin improved to 26.4%, attributed to lower core component costs and increased deliveries of the SU7 Ultra model [2] - The company plans to accelerate production capacity in the second half of 2025 and aims to enter the European market by 2027, enhancing its global brand influence [2] IoT - Q2 2025 IoT business revenue was 387 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 44.7% and a sequential increase of 19.7%, driven by strong sales in smart home appliances and wearables [3] - The gross margin for IoT was 22.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points, reflecting improved product mix [3] - The company is expanding its retail strategy, increasing the number of offline stores in mainland China from approximately 16,000 to over 17,000 [3] Mobile Phones - Q2 2025 mobile phone revenue was 455 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.1% and a sequential decline of 10.1% [4] - The average selling price (ASP) decreased to 1,073, with a gross margin of 11.5%, impacted by fluctuations in component prices [4] - Despite a challenging domestic market, the company achieved a 3.6% year-on-year increase in its smartphone sales [5] Internet Services - Q2 2025 internet services revenue was 91 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [6] - The gross margin for internet services was 75.4%, with a slight decline compared to the previous year [6] - The global monthly active user count reached 730 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [6] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the global smartphone market and the largest AIoT hardware platform, with positive long-term growth prospects across its business segments [6] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the expansion of its vehicle lineup and ecosystem synergies, aiming to rank among the top five global automakers by 2025-2027 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's Q2 2025 financial report shows significant growth in revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by its automotive business, IoT, and internet services, despite challenges in its smartphone segment [4][6]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi reported Q2 revenue of 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 10.8 billion yuan, up 75.4% [4]. - The automotive business generated 20.6 billion yuan in revenue from the delivery of 81,300 vehicles, with a gross margin of 26.4% [6][9]. - The operating loss in the automotive sector decreased from 500 million yuan in Q1 to 300 million yuan in Q2, marking a 40% improvement [9][12]. Business Segments Smartphone Business - Smartphone revenue was 45.5 billion yuan, accounting for 39.3% of total revenue, but showed a decline of 2.1% year-on-year and 10.1% quarter-on-quarter [14]. - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones fell to 1,073 yuan, down 11.3% from the previous quarter [15]. - Despite challenges, Xiaomi maintained a 14.7% market share globally, ranking third, and regained the top position in Southeast Asia with an 18.9% market share [16]. IoT and Internet Services - IoT revenue reached 38.7 billion yuan, a 44.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.5% [17]. - Internet services generated 9.1 billion yuan, growing 10.1% year-on-year, with a high gross margin of 75.4% [20]. - The IoT segment is becoming a significant profit source, surpassing the smartphone business in gross margin contribution [20]. Cost Management - Xiaomi's overall expense ratio decreased to 13.9%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control despite entering the automotive sector [22]. - R&D expenses were 7.8 billion yuan, with a slight decrease in the R&D expense ratio due to revenue growth outpacing absolute spending [24]. - The company leveraged shared R&D resources across its product lines, enhancing efficiency [24]. Automotive Business Outlook - Xiaomi's automotive business is close to profitability, with a theoretical net loss of approximately 6,000 yuan per vehicle, indicating that minor adjustments could lead to profitability [11][12]. - The company aims to deliver 350,000 vehicles by the end of the year, with production capacity increasing [12]. - The automotive sector's rapid growth and decreasing losses suggest a potential for achieving quarterly profitability by late 2025 or early 2026 [12].

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has lowered Xiaomi's target price from HKD 69.32 to HKD 61 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating, but has removed the stock from its recommended list for the Asia region [1] Financial Performance - The firm anticipates a decrease in the company's profitability in the second half of the year compared to the first half [1] - It is expected that the gross margin in the third quarter may come under pressure due to intensified competition in the smartphone market, rising costs, and seasonal slowdown in IoT products [1]

需要注意的是，小米的三大业务板块结构在第二季度中出现了一定的变化。 第二季度，智能电动汽车及AI等创新业务分部收入为人民币213亿元，其中，智能电动汽车收入为人民 币206亿元；毛利率为26.4%；经营亏损已从一季度的5亿元收窄至3亿元，并预计将在今年下半年实现 盈利。据卢伟冰透露，2022年至2025年上半年，小米在该业务上的费用投入超300亿。 8月19日晚，小米集团发布了2025年二季度业绩报告。当期，实现营收为1159.6亿元，已连续三个季度 营收破千亿，同比增长30.5%；净利润119亿元，经调整净利润为108亿元，创历史新高，同比增长 75.4%。 整体来看，小米2025年上半年营收为2272.49亿元，同比增长38.2%。经调整利润为215.06亿元，同比增 长177.5%；毛利为515亿元，较上年同期的352.24亿元增长46.2%。 这主要得益于大家电产品出货量持续保持高速增长态势。数据显示，小米2025年第二季度空调产品出货 量超540万台，同比增速超60%；冰箱产品出货量超79万台，同比增速超过25%；洗衣机产品出货量超 60万台，同比增速超过45%。 对比之下，小米的智能手机业务在二季 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported a significant performance surge in Q2 2025, achieving a record total revenue of 116 billion yuan, with a notable focus on high-end smartphone strategies and automotive business expansion [4][6]. Financial Performance - Total revenue reached 116 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.5% [6]. - Adjusted net profit was 10.8 billion yuan, up 75.4% year-on-year [6]. - Gross margin improved to 22.5%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Business Segment Performance - **Smartphone Business**: Revenue was 45.5 billion yuan with a gross margin of 11.5%, impacted by rising memory prices [6]. - **IoT Business**: Revenue grew by 44.7% year-on-year to 38.7 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.5% [6]. - **Automotive Business**: Revenue reached 20.6 billion yuan with a gross margin of 26.4%, and operating losses narrowed to 300 million yuan [6]. Business Highlights and Strategic Directions - **Smartphone**: Xiaomi maintained a global market share of 14.7%, ranking among the top three for 20 consecutive quarters. The share of models priced above 4000 yuan approached one-third [7]. - **IoT Business**: The segment saw a 44.7% revenue increase, with notable growth in tablet sales and a plan to open 400-500 new overseas stores in 2025 [8]. - **Automotive Business**: The first SUV, "Xiaomi YU7," achieved a lock order volume of 240,000 units, with a delivery volume of 81,300 units [9]. - **R&D Investment**: R&D spending increased by 41.2% year-on-year, with a focus on edge AI technology, allocating 7.5 billion yuan for 2025 [10]. Investor Q&A Summary - **IoT Business Expansion**: The domestic market benefits from offline channel development, while overseas expansion is crucial, with plans for 400-500 new stores in 2025 and over 1000 in 2026 [12]. - **Smartphone Margin Fluctuations**: Short-term impacts from DDR4 memory price increases, with long-term strategies focusing on high-end products and self-developed chip technology [13]. - **IoT Margin Pressure**: Q2 margins were affected by promotional activities, but the annual target remains unchanged [14]. - **Automotive Margin Drivers**: The high margin is attributed to the effectiveness of the high-end strategy and standardization on the Modena platform [15]. - **Edge AI Strategy**: The focus is on enhancing user experience, with plans to increase the proportion of edge AI in the future [16].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported a strong revenue growth of 30.5% year-on-year for Q2, driven by IoT and lifestyle products, despite a slight decline in smartphone revenue [2] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached 116 billion RMB, with a net profit of 10.8 billion RMB, marking a 75.4% increase year-on-year [2] - Smartphone revenue was 45.5 billion RMB, down 2.1% year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) in overseas markets [2] - IoT and lifestyle products generated 38.7 billion RMB, showing a significant growth of 44.7% year-on-year [2] - Internet services revenue was 9.1 billion RMB, up 10.1% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from innovative segments, including electric vehicles and AI, totaled 21.3 billion RMB, with a loss of 300 million RMB [2] Margin Analysis - The gross margin for smartphones decreased from 12.1% in the previous year to 11.5% in Q2, influenced by increased promotional activities and competition [2][3] - The company anticipates a recovery in smartphone gross margin in Q4, focusing on high-end products and investments in chips, operating systems, and AI [3] Market Outlook - The overall smartphone market growth is expected to be flat or minimal, leading Xiaomi to revise its sales target to approximately 175 million units for the year [3] - The company emphasizes optimizing product structure and improving ASP in response to market conditions [3] R&D Investment - R&D expenditure for Q2 was 7.8 billion RMB, a 41.2% increase year-on-year, with an expected total investment of 30 billion RMB for the year [4] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased from 39.336 billion RMB to 36 billion RMB year-on-year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported a record high revenue of RMB 115.96 billion for Q2, marking a 30.5% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of RMB 11.9 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB 10.83 billion, up 75.4% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 reached RMB 115.96 billion, compared to RMB 88.89 billion in the same period last year, reflecting a 30.5% increase [2]. - Gross profit was RMB 26.10 billion, up 41.9% year-on-year [2]. - Operating profit surged to RMB 13.44 billion, a 128.2% increase from the previous year [2]. - The adjusted net profit of RMB 10.83 billion represents a 75.4% increase year-on-year [2]. Automotive Business - In Q2 2025, revenue from Xiaomi's smart electric vehicles and AI-related businesses was RMB 21.3 billion, with smart electric vehicle revenue at RMB 20.6 billion [3]. - The gross margin for the smart electric vehicle segment was 26.4%, but the segment incurred an operating loss of RMB 300 million [3]. - Xiaomi has invested over RMB 30 billion in automotive and innovative businesses from 2022 to the first half of 2025, leading to significant losses in new business segments [5]. Research and Development - Xiaomi's R&D expenditure in Q2 was RMB 7.8 billion, a 41.2% increase year-on-year, with a total of 22,641 R&D personnel, the highest in the company's history [6][7]. Smartphone and IoT Business - Revenue from the smartphone segment was RMB 45.5 billion, with a gross margin of 11.5%, and global smartphone shipments reached 42.4 million units, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year [9]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment achieved record revenue of RMB 38.7 billion, up 44.7% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.5%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points [9]. Stock Performance - As of August 19, Xiaomi's stock price closed at HKD 52.4, down 1.23%, with a total market capitalization of HKD 1.36 trillion, reflecting a nearly 14% decline from its recent high of HKD 61.45 on June 27 [11][12].

Summary of Xiaomi's Q225 Preview and Key Insights Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi - **Industry**: Smartphone and Internet-of-Things (IoT) home-lifestyle company - **Mission**: To build high-quality products at reasonable prices, capping hardware net margin at 5% per year [14][15] Key Financial Metrics - **Q225 Smartphone Sell-Through**: 41 million units, up 0.5% YoY and 1.5% QoQ [2] - **Q225 Estimated Sell-In**: 42.4 million units, in line with sell-through due to lean channel inventory [2] - **Full Year Unit Growth Forecast**: 175 million units, slightly revised down from 176 million [2] - **Q225 Smartphone Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Expected to be flat QoQ at 11.6% [2] Regional Performance - **China**: Sell-through grew 8% YoY, driven by subsidies and the 618 shopping festival [2] - **Europe and Rest of World (RoW)**: Recorded declines of -1% and -4% YoY, respectively, due to competition from Samsung and market share gains in emerging markets [2] AIoT Business Insights - **Q225 AIoT Sales Forecast**: RMB 36.6 billion, up 37% YoY; 2025E forecast at RMB 140.6 billion, up 35% YoY [3] - **Margin Expectations**: Seasonal decline expected due to 618 promotions, with a forecasted 3.7 percentage points QoQ decline from Q125's peak [3] - **Challenges**: Receding subsidy impacts and intensified domestic competition may suppress margin upside [3] Electric Vehicle (EV) Segment - **Q225 EV Deliveries**: 82,000 units, up 8% QoQ [4] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Expected to rise to RMB 240,000, with a margin increase of 0.7% [4] - **Future Capacity**: Second EV plant ramp-up is critical for 2H25/2026 shipment forecasts, with expectations of 398,000 and 720,000 units in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] Valuation and Price Target - **Revised Price Target**: Lowered from HK$62.0 to HK$60.0, maintaining a Neutral rating [5] - **Earnings Forecast Adjustments**: Q225 and 2025 earnings forecasts reduced by 10.4% and 5.5%, respectively [5] - **Valuation Methodology**: Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with smartphone, AIoT, and internet segments valued at 22.5x 2026E PE [5] Profitability and Financial Metrics - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2025E at RMB 483.4 billion, growing to RMB 929.7 billion by 2029E [6] - **Net Earnings**: Projected net earnings for 2025E at RMB 42.0 billion, increasing to RMB 92.2 billion by 2029E [6] - **Debt Management**: Net cash position expected to improve significantly by 2029E [6] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: Include raw material price hikes, competition in the premium smartphone market, and potential declines in IoT demand as subsidies fade [15] - **Upside Risks**: Faster-than-expected adoption of edge-AI smartphones, earlier monetization of IoT products, and higher EV shipments could drive growth [16] Market Position - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately HK$1,348 billion (US$172 billion) [7] - **Free Float**: 59% of shares [7] - **Average Daily Volume**: 151,813 shares [7] Conclusion Xiaomi is navigating a complex landscape with mixed performance across its segments. While the smartphone and AIoT businesses show growth potential, challenges from competition and market dynamics necessitate careful monitoring of margins and capacity expansions, particularly in the EV sector. The revised price target reflects a cautious outlook amid these developments.