2026年3月30日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：周名未 邮箱：zhoumingwei@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 牛市五倍股：从科创扩向周期制造 证 券 研 究 报 告 牛市五倍股：从科创扩向周期制造 证 券 研 究 报 告 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 我们在前期报告《本轮牛市百只五倍股画像》中已经对24/9/18-25/8/22已经诞生的五倍股行业上市板分布、估值及基本面特征进行过梳理，彼 时我们认为牛股往后走的观测重心将更多转到基本面特征。因此本篇报告将延续此思路，对截至03/27本轮牛市的非北证五倍股进行梳理，并对 比牛市一年内即25/09/30前诞生的五倍股与09/30至今五倍股的相关指标。（注：本轮五倍股定义为24/9/18起的区间内自最低价的最大涨幅超 500%的非北证个股、剔除综合 ...

对话电子- 押注预期差，锁定科技反弹 20260329 摘要 跌买入窗口。 近期 TMT 板块整体下跌，但基本面似乎依然强劲，应如何看待其后续走势和 具体的投资机会？ 市场的托底力量。 在外部冲击收敛、市场预期从反弹转向反转的背景下，二季度有哪些值得关注 的、可能形成趋势性抱团的投资方向？ 2026 年第一季度市场高波动，偏股型基金收益中位数在 3 月 23 日时约为- 4%，即使经过上周反弹，平均水平可能仍在-2%左右，主流指数如沪深 300 也录得负收益。因此，市场正在寻找二季度可能出现的趋势性抱-团方向，类似 2025 年 4 月至 8 月的 CPO 行情。 目前有三个潜在方向： 第一，超跌的有色 金属板块，包括贵金属和小金属。该板块逻辑类似于去年 CPO 行情启动前的大 幅下跌（CPO 当时跌幅达 40%）。但不同之处在于，有色板块的后续走势更 依赖于宏观逻辑，如美元指数回落、全球从加息转向降息的预期以及全球经济 增长的确认，而去年 CPO 行情更多由产业逻辑驱动。 第二，创新药板块。该 板块上周已出现一波行情，主要受益于其一季度景气度回升，以及若地缘事件 收敛，美债收益率高位回落将打开其估值空间。部 ...

Performance Analysis - As of Q4 2025, the S&P 500 index revenue growth was 6.0%, up 0.6 percentage points from Q3, marking the highest level since Q4 2023[7] - The S&P 500 index EPS growth for Q4 2025 was 15.6%, significantly exceeding the previous forecast of 8.0% and the ten-year median of 7.0%[8] - The operating costs for the S&P 500 index increased by 4.5% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reflecting manageable cost pressures despite tariff impacts[7] Sector Insights - The technology sector continued to drive growth, contributing approximately 64% to the S&P 500's earnings growth, up from 40% in Q3[18] - The industrial sector saw a significant EPS growth of 26.5% in Q4 2025, driven by increased defense spending and manufacturing policy shifts[24] - The healthcare sector's EPS growth fell to 0.5%, down 4.8 percentage points from Q3, due to competitive pressures and cost increases from tariffs[22] Market Trends - The shift towards cyclical sectors has been notable, with cyclical stocks outperforming technology stocks since early 2026[5] - Concerns over AI sustainability and geopolitical tensions have led to a preference for heavy asset sectors, reinforcing the relative strength of cyclical stocks[4] - The capital expenditure growth for the S&P 500 was 31.5% in Q4 2025, with the "Mag7" companies leading at 74.0%[14] Economic Outlook - The Philadelphia Fed's latest economic forecast suggests that U.S. economic growth will peak in the third quarter of 2026 before slowing down[29] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are expected to keep asset prices under pressure until clarity is achieved[4]

Core Insights - The current A-share market is facing two significant underlying logical changes: structural imbalance in internal positions and substantial macroeconomic changes [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of determining whether the current situation is more comparable to early 2021 or early 2022, as historical pricing reviews indicate essential differences between the two periods [1][10] Historical Pricing Review - In March 2021, the core essence of the decline was structural adjustment rather than the onset of a systemic downturn. The decline was triggered by a rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields and deteriorating micro trading structures, leading to a significant correction in previously favored "Mao Index" core assets [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 8.1%, while the ChiNext Index dropped nearly 21.6%. However, the market did not enter a full bear market but instead completed a clear shift in main lines, with the "Ning Combination" replacing the "Mao Index" as the core trading focus [2][11] - In February 2022, the decline was characterized as a defensive reduction rather than a simple style rebalancing, driven by weakening risk appetite, declining incremental funds, and profit expectations. The decline was triggered by inflation expectations stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the total A-share market dropping 9.46% in January 2022 [3][11] Current Market Analysis - Based on the historical scenarios, two core scenarios are projected for the current market: 1. If the macro environment shows moderate inflation and resilient global economic characteristics, the current market is more likely to resemble March 2021, with the Shanghai Composite Index's performance aligning with this scenario [4][12] 2. If clear stagflation and a pause in the global rate cut cycle occur, the current market will resemble early 2022, necessitating a comprehensive reduction in positions and a shift towards defensive strategies [4][12] Sector Positioning - The report highlights that as of Q4 2025, domestic institutions have a significant allocation in the pan-technology sector, exceeding 50%, with the total allocation in overseas sectors approaching 70%. This indicates a structural imbalance that necessitates a rebalancing strategy moving forward [7][33] - The report suggests a focus on "new and old coexisting" strategies, emphasizing the selection of representative structural directions within technology, overseas, and resource sectors for effective portfolio management [7][8] Investment Themes - The report identifies four key rebalancing themes: 1. New and old rebalancing 2. Internal rebalancing within resource sectors 3. Internal rebalancing within technology sectors 4. Internal rebalancing within overseas sectors [8] - The emphasis is on identifying low-positioned value stocks and adjusting to the changing macroeconomic landscape, particularly in light of rising oil prices and a strengthening dollar [33][29]

Group 1 - The report indicates that high oil prices will not lead to stagflation in China, as improved inflation expectations can catalyze an upward inventory cycle, benefiting manufacturing and cyclical industries amid global energy transition and capacity security [1] - High oil prices impact the A-share market through four main pathways: cost shock, inventory changes, external demand pressure, and valuation effects [4][33] - The report highlights that the cost transmission ability is ranked as upstream > downstream > midstream, with industries like transportation, chemicals, electricity, and construction being more affected by high oil prices [14][18] Group 2 - Historical analysis of the oil price shocks during the Libyan civil war (2010-2012) and the Russia-Ukraine conflict (2021-2022) shows that while upstream sectors benefited initially, sustained high oil prices eventually suppressed external demand and led to stagflation concerns [33][39] - The report emphasizes that the current economic cycle in China is in a recovery phase rather than overheating, suggesting that rising oil prices could accelerate the recovery of the Producer Price Index (PPI) [27][31] - Recommended sectors include those benefiting from the energy transition and capital goods exports, such as power equipment, new energy vehicles, and construction materials, which are expected to see price increases and inventory replenishment [4][33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the potential for significant long-term growth in specific segments of the AI computing power investment landscape, despite short-term volatility in stock prices due to various factors [5] - The article highlights that the GTC conference and OFC conference have a synergistic effect, suggesting that the optical interconnection sector is likely to benefit from these developments [5] Group 2 - Ping An Bank reported a 10.4% decline in revenue and a 4.2% decrease in PPOP for 2025, with retail profit contribution showing signs of recovery [5] - CITIC Bank achieved a revenue of 212.5 billion, a slight decrease of 0.55%, but a net profit increase of 2.98%, with a dividend payout ratio rising to 31.75% [5] - Greentown Service's revenue reached 19.16 billion, up 7.1%, with a core operating profit increase of 24.6% and a dividend payout ratio of 75% [7] - Wanwu Cloud reported a revenue of 37.27 billion, a 2.7% increase, with a core net profit of 2.13 billion, reflecting a growth of 0.8% [7] - Wancheng Group achieved a revenue of 51.46 billion, a significant increase of 59.17%, and a net profit growth of 358.09% [7] - Tianshili's revenue was 8.236 billion, with a net profit of 1.105 billion, showing a 16% increase, despite a 3% decline in overall revenue [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 14.80, representing an upside potential of approximately 87.8% from the current price of HKD 7.88 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of HKD 97.63 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.6%. All three major business segments—enterprise systems, consumer electronics, and cloud computing—are projected to show robust growth [2][3]. - The cloud computing and AI business has emerged as a significant growth driver, with cloud revenue expected to increase by 29.1% to HKD 50.81 billion, supported by strong partnerships with major cloud providers [3]. - The company is strategically positioned in the "domestic + overseas" computing ecosystem, with significant revenue contributions from both the North Asia market and Southeast Asia, where it has established itself as a key partner for NVIDIA [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to generate revenue of HKD 97.63 billion, with a gross profit of HKD 4.35 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.35 billion, marking a substantial increase of 28.7% year-on-year [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be HKD 0.94, with a proposed dividend of HKD 0.42, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 43% [2][4]. Revenue Breakdown - The North Asia market is anticipated to contribute HKD 61.88 billion in revenue, growing by 5.9%, while the Southeast Asia market is expected to reach HKD 35.75 billion, reflecting a growth of 16.6% [3]. - The cloud computing segment is projected to grow significantly, with AWS revenue increasing by over 120%, and contributions from Alibaba Cloud and Huawei Cloud also showing strong growth [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2026-2028 are adjusted to HKD 110.74 billion, HKD 125.96 billion, and HKD 144.33 billion respectively, with net profits expected to reach HKD 1.56 billion, HKD 1.87 billion, and HKD 2.15 billion [4][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 17% in profits over the next three years [4].

责任编辑：小浪快报 富国创新科技混合型证券投资基金（简称：富国创新科技混合A，代码002692）公布3月17日最新 净值，下跌5.08%。 富国创新科技混合A成立于2016年6月16日，业绩比较基准为中证TMT产业主题指数×60%+中证全 债指数收益率×40%。该基金成立以来收益208.40%，今年以来收益7.95%，近一月收益4.29%，近一年 收益127.60%，近三年收益105.05%。近一年，该基金排名同类23/8168。 基金经理为罗擎。罗擎自2025年7月15日管理（或拟管理）该基金，任职期内收益97.53%。 最新定期报告显示，该基金前十大重仓股如下： | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 持仓占比 | 持仓股数（股） | 持仓市值（元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300308 | 中际旭创 | 9.88% | 890000 | 5.43亿 | | 300502 | 新易盛 | 9.41% | 1200000 | 5.17亿 | | 002384 | 东山精密 | 7.71% | 5000039 | 4.23亿 | | 300394 | 天孚通信 | 6. ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the current dynamics between the "Technology + Overseas" and "Resource" sectors, highlighting an inherent contradiction that may lead to a decisive outcome between AI technology and traditional resource commodities [2][3] - The report emphasizes that the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the military conflict between the US and Iran, have led to a surge in oil prices, disrupting the previously balanced relationship between the two sectors [2][3] - It suggests that the current "HALO" trading strategy, which is based on AI technology's creative destruction, may lead to a disconnection between asset values and fundamentals, driven by emotions rather than cash flow [3][4] Summary by Sections Current Market Dynamics - The report notes that the "Technology + Overseas" sector has recently faced challenges, with the rise in oil prices contributing to a narrative of "secondary inflation" that disrupts the previous balance with resource sectors [2][3] - It highlights that the current market is characterized by a shift from growth chasing to embracing certainty and scarcity, particularly in sectors less likely to be replaced by AI [7] HALO and TACO Trading Strategies - "HALO" trading is defined as a strategy focusing on heavy assets and low obsolescence, which seeks to hedge against uncertainties exacerbated by geopolitical tensions [7] - "TACO" trading, originating from Trump's tariff policies, is viewed as a short-term trading strategy that capitalizes on market volatility and is expected to lead to a recovery in oil prices, which could benefit the "Technology + Overseas" sector [4][7] Future Outlook - The report concludes that 2026 will not be a year dominated by either technology or cyclical sectors, but rather a period of coexistence, termed "New and Old Dance Together," emphasizing the importance of balanced portfolio management [4][15] - It identifies four key sectors for investment: non-ferrous resources, cyclical chemicals, AI applications, and overseas engineering machinery, advocating for a strategy that balances these sectors [4][15]

Core Viewpoint - IREN Limited's stock experienced a significant surge of approximately 13% after enduring a decline of over 45% from its November highs near $80 to the high $30s, and is currently consolidating in the low $40s [1] Company Summary - IREN Limited's stock price fell from nearly $80 in November to the high $30s, marking a decline of over 45% before rebounding [1] - The recent surge indicates a potential recovery or consolidation phase for the stock, which is now trading in the low $40s [1]