（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 事实上，当前制冷剂行业格局正面临重塑。根据《基加利修正案》实施的配额管理，氟化工行业正 从"自由竞争"转向"配额管制"，巨化股份凭借较高的配额占比获得比较显著的优势。巨化股份2024年年 报透露，公司二代制冷剂（HCFCs）生产配额为3.89万吨，占全国26.10%，其内用配额占全国31.28%， 为国内第一；第三代氟制冷剂（HFCs）生产配额29.98万吨，占全国同类品种合计份额的39.6%。 而受供需变化影响，去年四季度以来，国内制冷剂价格就出现持续拉升的局面，今年以来制冷剂价格更 是呈现全面上涨趋势。百川盈孚数据显示，截至6月5日，第三代主流制冷剂R32国内均价突破5.1万元/ 吨，年内涨幅达19%，同比增长42%；行业毛利润高达3.5万元/吨，较去年同期增加超1万元/吨。 受益于亮眼业绩预期及行业高景气度，巨化股份年内股价涨幅达20.4%，并于7月2日盘中创下29.29元/ 股的历史新高。截至7月8日收盘，公司股价报28.79元/股，日内上涨0.95%，仍处于历史高位附近。 在配额政策推动和市场需求提振的双重驱动下，国内氟化工龙头企业巨化股份（600160.SH）或将交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company held an investor reception on June 13, 2025, to enhance communication with investors regarding its development strategy and the current situation of refrigerants, particularly the third-generation hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and their market dynamics [2][5]. Group 1: Event Details - The investor reception took place on June 13, 2025, from 15:00 to 17:45 [2]. - The event was held in the company's video conference room [3]. - Attendees included company executives and representatives from various investment firms, totaling 51 participants [4]. Group 2: Discussion Highlights - The main purpose of the meeting was to strengthen investor relations and address misconceptions regarding the HFCs quota system, which is a significant change in the industry [5]. - HFCs are characterized as essential refrigerants for air conditioners and heat pumps, with a growing market due to increasing demand in various sectors [6]. - The company emphasized that HFCs have unique market attributes, including low downstream cost share and high storage capability, distinguishing them from other chemical products [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The implementation of the quota system for HFCs starting in 2024 under the Montreal Protocol has positioned China to hold over 80% of the global HFCs quota, creating a specific business model [7]. - The company noted that the seasonal production decline in the air conditioning sector does not solely dictate HFC demand, as market structures are evolving [8]. - The company has secured export orders for the third quarter, with prices showing an upward trend [8][9]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Measures - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has optimized the quota distribution plan for 2025, increasing the R32 quota by 45,000 tons [10]. - The company is prepared to request an additional 10% quota adjustment if demand significantly increases in the second half of the year [10][11]. - Measures to combat counterfeit products in the HFCs market include stricter regulations and enhanced enforcement against illegal production [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 809 million yuan, up 160.64% year-on-year, indicating a robust recovery and growth trajectory [1][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the fluorochemical industry, particularly benefiting from the ongoing upcycle in refrigerants, with significant growth expected in the coming years [7]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 29.36 billion yuan, 35.23 billion yuan, and 40.51 billion yuan respectively, alongside net profits of 3.30 billion yuan, 4.20 billion yuan, and 4.90 billion yuan [7][15]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 20.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4%, followed by a recovery with 18% growth in 2024 [15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.35 yuan in 2023 to 1.22 yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong growth outlook [15]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 72.6 in 2023 to 20.8 in 2025, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [15]. Market Position - The company has solidified its market position as a leading player in the fluorochemical sector, particularly in the production of fluorinated refrigerants and chlorinated raw materials, with a global leadership status [7]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant increase in sales and production across key product lines, particularly in refrigerants, where average prices rose over 50% [7].