Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's stock price has increased over 5%, reaching a new high of 584.5 HKD, following the release of its Q2 2025 earnings report, which showed strong growth across various business segments [1] Financial Performance - Ctrip Group reported a net revenue of 14.843 billion RMB for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.22% [1] - The net profit attributable to Ctrip Group Limited was 4.846 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.43% [1] Business Segments Growth - The international OTA platform's total bookings increased by over 60% year-on-year [1] - Inbound tourism bookings saw a remarkable growth of over 100% year-on-year [1] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings have surpassed 120% of the levels seen in the same period before the pandemic in 2019 [1] Market Position and Valuation - According to CMB International, the Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with hotel business growth surpassing forecasts and market share continuing to rise [1] - The target price for Ctrip has been raised from 591 HKD/76 USD to 653 HKD/84 USD, based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1] - The firm anticipates a 15% year-on-year revenue growth and an 18% increase in hotel revenue for Q3, driven primarily by an increase in room nights [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.8 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.5%, exceeding expectations by 3.6% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 was 3 billion RMB, up 13.6% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations by 8.3%, driven by strong growth in international business and inbound travel demand [1][2] - The company is expected to increase its investment in international business over the next two years, which may lead to a slight decline in profit margins in the short term, but this is anticipated to open new growth avenues and greater profit flexibility in the long term [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company’s international OTA platform hotel and flight bookings grew over 70% year-over-year, with international business accounting for 14% of total revenue, up from 10% for the full year 2024 [2] - The inbound travel demand saw a 100% year-over-year increase in bookings, benefiting from favorable visa policies [2] Profitability Outlook - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 79.1%, showing a slight decline due to the increased proportion of lower-margin international business [3] - Management indicated a focus on expanding overseas operations, which may lead to short-term profit margin pressure but is expected to strengthen the company's global positioning and ensure sustainable profit release in the long run [3] Technology Deployment - The management is focusing on the comprehensive deployment of AI technology in business operations, utilizing extensive real-time travel data for personalized travel recommendations and competitive pricing [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.3 billion, 71.3 billion, and 82.4 billion RMB, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 19.7 billion, 22.5 billion, and 26 billion RMB [5][12] - The target price for the company's US stock is set at $75.50, while the target price for the Hong Kong stock is HKD 563.70, based on a PE valuation method [5][15]