农业、能源上游价格回升 宏观日报 | 2026-01-14 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）工业和信息化部印发《推动工业互联网平台高质量发展行动方案（2026—2028年）》。其中提出到2028 年，具有一定影响力的平台超450家，工业设备连接数突破1.2亿台（套），平台普及率达到55%以上。实施工业互 联网与人工智能融合赋能行动，引导平台企业加快提升全员人工智能素养与技能，推动人工智能技术在工业全链 条渗透，在生产控制、风险识别等规则相对明确的场景推广判别式人工智能应用，在工艺优化、方案设计等需求 相对复杂的场景探索生成式人工智能实践。2）商务部公布对原产于美国和韩国的进口太阳能级多晶硅所适用反倾 销措施的期终复审裁定，依据《反倾销条例》第五十条的规定，商务部根据调查结果向国务院关税税则委员会提 出继续实施反倾销措施的建议，国务院关税税则委员会根据商务部的建议作出决定，自2026年1月14日起，对原产 于美国和韩国的进口太阳能级多晶硅继续征收反倾销税，实施期限为5年。 服务行业：1）美国12月消费者价格指数同比增长2.7%，预估为2.7%，前值为2.7%。美国12月核心消费者价格指数 同比增长2.6%，预估为2 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2026-01-13 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《债市利空加速出尽？ ——流动性周 报 20260111》 - 2026.01.12 固收周报 生产热度分化，物价整体回升 ——高频数据跟踪 20260112 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度分化，焦炉、高炉、PX 开工率均升高，螺纹钢产量增长，沥青、汽车轮胎开工率下降。第二， 商品房成交、土地供应面积均回落。第三，物价整体回升，能源、金 属价格上涨，其中铜价屡创新高；农产品价格整体回落，猪肉价格回 升。短期重点关注财政与货币协同政策落地情况。 生产：焦炉、高炉、PX 开工率均升高 1 月 9 日当周，焦炉产能利用率升高 0.87 pct，高炉开工率升高 0.37 pct，螺纹钢产量增加 8.56 万吨；石油沥青开工率低位继续下 降 2.0 pct；化工 PX 开工率升高 1.67 ...

宏观日报 | 2026-01-13 下游持续回暖，关注外贸政策调整 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）1月12日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。日本朝日新闻记者提问，关于中国对日本出口稀土 一事，据报道，包括明确民事用途在内的稀土对日本的出口许可审查被暂停，中国国有企业通知部分日本企业将 不再签订新的稀土合同等。对此，毛宁回应："具体的情况建议你向中方的主管部门了解，我想说的是，中方依法 依规采取有关措施，完全是正当、合理、合法。" 2)1月12日，商务部在官网通报了中欧电动汽车案的最新磋商进 展。中国机电商会认为，妥善解决欧盟对华电动汽车反补贴案，是中欧电动汽车上下游业界的普遍期待，有助于 促进中欧相关产业链供应链的安全稳定，维护中欧经贸合作大局及以规则为基础的国际贸易秩序。中欧双方本着 相互尊重和对话精神，经过多轮磋商，成功推动该案实现"软着陆"。为此，欧方将发布《关于提交价格承诺申请 的指导文件》，并在文件中确认，欧方将秉持非歧视原则，根据世贸组织规则有关规定，对每一项价格承诺申请， 适用相同法律标准，并以客观和公正的方式进行评估。 服务行业：1）国家市场监督管理总局发布公告，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The real estate sector index increased by 5.1% in the second week of January 2026, ranking 11th among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10] - New housing transactions in 20 monitored cities saw a 37% year-on-year decrease, while the average daily transaction volume increased by 104% week-on-week [22][27] - The report highlights three main issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [34][35] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 12,626.37 billion [2] Policy News - In Shenyang, new policies were implemented to optimize housing fund loans, including extending the minimum down payment policy to December 31, 2026, and increasing the loan limit for new citizens and youth [18][19] - Shanghai emphasized creating a fair market competition environment through new regulations [18][19] Sales Data - In the second week, the average daily transaction volume for new homes in 20 cities was 21.8 million square meters, with total transactions of 153 million square meters [26][27] - The average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes in 11 cities was 30.3 million square meters, with total transactions of 212 million square meters [27][32] Financing - The report notes that most companies issuing bonds this week are local state-owned enterprises, with New Hope Real Estate issuing the largest amount of 8.8 billion [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate market: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable assets like leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies [34][35]

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强 、耿佩璇 报告正文 1. 生产高频跟踪：工业生产边际改善，建筑业开工表现分化 工业生产中，高炉开工有所改善，表观消费则有回落。 上周（1月5日至1月9日），高炉开工率环比 0.4%，同比回升1.3个百分点至2.2%；钢材表观消费环比0.6%、同比回落1.5个百分点至0.6%。钢材社会库存 延续回落，环比-2.5%。 图 39: 上周，高炉开工率有所回升 全国高炉开工率 (247家) 2022 2024 2023 ■ 2025 2026 % 85 80 75 70 65 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月12月 资料来源： Wind、申万宏源研究 图 40：上周，钢材周表观消费有所回落 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1300 厅吨 1100 900 700 500 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 资料来源：iFind、申万宏源研究 国内PTA开工率 2023 · 2024 · 2022 2025 · 2026 90 (%) 85 80 75 70 ...

截止2025年12月末，集团实现经营性收入约人民币267.7亿元(含税金额约人民币285.4亿元);其中运营收 入约人民币141.9亿元(含税金额约人民币151.9亿元)，服务收入约人民币125.8亿元(含税金额约人民币 133.5亿元)。 龙湖集团(00960)发布公告，截止2025年12月末，集团累计实现总合同销售金额人民币631.6亿元，合同 销售面积518.6万平方米，12月单月实现总合同销售金额人民币37.7亿元，合同销售面积44.7万平方 米;12月单月实现归属公司股东权益的合同销售金额人民币23.8亿元，归属公司股东权益的合同销售面 积28.6万平方米。 集团2025年12月新增一块土地储备，总建筑面积6.36万平方米，权益建筑面积6.36万平方米，权益地价 人民币7.66亿元。 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces improved slightly, with a week-on-week increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year rise of 1.3 percentage points to 2.2% [1][4] - Apparent steel consumption decreased by 0.6% week-on-week and fell by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.6% [1][6] - Steel social inventory continued to decline, down 2.5% week-on-week [1] Group 2: Chemical and Automotive Industries - In the chemical sector, the operating rate of soda ash increased significantly by 4.4% week-on-week and rose by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to -2.2% [10][11] - The operating rate of PTA rose by 3.2% week-on-week and increased by 4.1 percentage points year-on-year to -4.2% [10][14] - The operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.4% week-on-week and rose by 3 percentage points year-on-year to 4.8%, while the operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires showed weakness, down 2.4% week-on-week and falling by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year to -13% [10][18] Group 3: Construction Industry - The cement production and demand showed marginal improvement, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 2.1% week-on-week and rising by 5.2 percentage points year-on-year to 9.9% [22][23] - Cement shipment rate decreased by 1.5% week-on-week but increased by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year to 0.5% [22][26] - The cement inventory ratio continued to decline, down 0.5% week-on-week and up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 1.3% [22][30] Group 4: Demand Tracking - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 47.4% week-on-week and fell by 13.6 percentage points year-on-year to 38.4% [44][45] - The transaction volume in first-tier and second-tier cities was significantly weaker than the previous year, with first-tier cities down 30.8% week-on-week and 12.7 percentage points year-on-year to 44.5%, and second-tier cities down 61.9% week-on-week and 15.8 percentage points year-on-year to 29.8% [44][48][51] - The freight volume related to domestic demand showed a decline, with railway freight volume down 5.9 percentage points year-on-year to -10.3% and highway freight traffic down 8.4 percentage points year-on-year to -9.7% [56][58] Group 5: Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices showed differentiation, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively, while egg prices increased by 1.4% [98] - The industrial product price index rose by 1.7% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index increasing by 0.7% and the metal price index rising by 3.9% [110][114]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yingxin Development has experienced a significant decline in stock price and financial performance, with a notable drop in revenue and net profit [1][2]. - As of January 12, Yingxin Development's stock price decreased by 2.14% to 3.20 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 18.79 billion CNY [1]. - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 19.40%, with a 90.48% increase over the past 60 days [1]. Group 2 - For the period from January to September 2025, Yingxin Development reported a revenue of 1.169 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 48.38%, and a net profit of -486 million CNY, a decrease of 682.00% [2]. - The number of shareholders as of September 30 was 72,100, a decrease of 4.15% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 4.33% to 64,813 shares [2]. - Yingxin Development has not distributed any dividends in the past three years, with a total payout of 1.428 billion CNY since its A-share listing [3].

滨州日报/滨州网讯 "十四五"以来，全市住建系统紧紧围绕市委、市政府重大决策部署，以党建统 领"1+5+N"工作体系为抓手，自觉将各项工作融入黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展重大国家战略，始终 锚定人民群众对美好生活的向往这一根本目标，努力把关乎百姓福祉的一件件民生实事办好、办扎实、 办到群众心坎上，持续增强群众获得感、幸福感、安全感。 城市发展能级进一步提升 五年来，滨州见证着实实在在的民生"蝶变"——房价走势趋于稳定、老旧小区居民告别"爬楼时代"迈 入"电梯生活"、冬季供暖室温提升三四度、燃气连接管全面升级为安全可靠的不锈钢波纹管……这些看 得见、摸得着的变化，正是全市住建系统坚持"民有所呼、我有所应"理念，精准破解群众"急难愁盼"问 题的生动缩影。 "十四五"期间，全市住建系统全力推进"四项工程"建设，用实打实的数据彰显成效，用高质量项目回应 期待，不断满足人民群众对舒适、安全、美好居住环境的新需求。 实施"安居宜居"工程 住有所居迈向住有优居 政策调控精准有效。适应房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形势，连续推出11条、21条、21条、31 条等多轮促进房地产市场平稳健康发展政策，因城施策促进市场平稳健康 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new policies introduced by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development aim to fundamentally eliminate unfinished buildings in the real estate market, marking a shift towards high-quality development and a departure from the previous high-risk, high-turnover model [1][11]. Group 1: Causes of Unfinished Buildings - The root causes of unfinished buildings are complex, primarily stemming from uncontrolled financial supervision and distorted development models. Developers often misuse pre-sale funds for expansion, leading to project funding chain breaks [3]. - Before 2020, deposits and pre-sale funds accounted for over 34% of real estate developers' funding, with some small and medium-sized enterprises relying on pre-sale funds for over 80% of their project financing [3]. Group 2: New Policy Measures - The new policy introduces a "three firewall" approach to mitigate the risk of unfinished buildings. The first firewall is the implementation of a current housing sales system, allowing buyers to see and verify the property before purchase, thus eliminating the anxiety associated with pre-sale properties [4]. - The second firewall focuses on restructuring development and financing mechanisms, requiring each project to establish an independent company to manage funds, ensuring that all sales and loan funds are used exclusively for the project [6]. - The third firewall aims to enhance regulatory and judicial protections, ensuring that pre-sale funds are strictly monitored and used for project construction, while also providing legal safeguards for buyers [7]. Group 3: Impact on the Real Estate Market - The implementation of the new policies will significantly reduce risks for buyers, enhancing transparency regarding property quality and reducing the costs associated with post-purchase rights protection [9]. - Developers will face increased financial pressure as they must rely on their own funds to complete projects, leading to a shift from competition based on scale to competition based on quality [9]. - The new policies will not be implemented uniformly but will consider market differences across cities, allowing for a tailored approach that balances stability and transformation [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The implementation of these policies signifies a historic transformation in China's real estate market, with the elimination of unfinished buildings representing a major breakthrough in public welfare and a key indicator of high-quality industry development [11]. - The focus will shift towards building quality housing and communities, establishing a new market ecology characterized by quality and controllable risks [11].