尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 | | | | | | 2026/2/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | 本期 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 一周走势 | | 河北 | | 1800 | 1800 | 0 | | | 河南 | | 1800 | 1800 | 0 | | | 山东 | | 1800 | 1800 | 0 | | | 主流地区市场价 | 山西 | 1680 | 1680 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 江苏 | 1810 | 1810 | 0 | | | 安徽 | | 1810 | 1810 | 0 | | | 黑龙江 | | 1780 | 1780 | 0 | | | 内蒙古 | | 1810 | 1810 | 0 | | | 河北东光 | | 1790 | 1790 | 0 | | | 工厂价 | 山东华鲁 | 1790 | 1790 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 江苏灵谷 | 1830 | 1830 | 0 | | | 安徽昊源 | | 1770 | 1770 | 0 | | | 山东05基差 | | 2 | 4 | - ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：节前收单基本完成 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 11 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开高走，震荡上涨。大部分工厂已收单完成，假期间现货价格 平稳运行为主。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1740-1780 元/吨。今日肥易通数据日产已达 21.5 万，假期内多数装置正常运 行为主，短期没有长期停产计划。本周期货市场情绪偏强，现货节前收单顺 畅，年后即将迎来小麦返青追肥旺季，工业需求边际减弱中，上周复合肥工厂 开工基本持平，节前继续备货生产，同时前期待发进行，工厂厂内库存小幅消 化，终端走货尚可，本周将迎来假期前最后一次开工数据，预计环比下降，本 周库存大幅去化，周度减少 9.12%，但进入假期物流不畅，预计下周小幅累 库。今日大宗商品情绪整体回暖，尿素盘面同样偏强，节前流动性减弱，窄幅 波动为主。 【期现行情】 基差方面：今日现货市场主流报价上涨，期货收盘价上涨；以河南地区为基 准，基差环比上个交易日走弱，5 月合约基差 3 元/吨（-12 元/吨）。 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1785 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，震荡上涨，最 终收于 1797 元/ ...

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the supply measures for fertilizers in China as the spring farming season approaches, analyzing the price trends and supply conditions for urea, phosphate, and potassium fertilizers. Urea - In early November last year, approximately 600,000 tons of the fourth batch of urea export quotas were issued, boosting market confidence and leading to a price rebound of 250 CNY/ton [2][6] - Current urea factory prices in Shandong and Henan are around 1,700 CNY/ton, which is at historical average levels and acceptable for farmers [2][6] - Domestic urea production increased by nearly 1.5 million tons year-on-year from November to January, indicating that the export quota issuance was a strategic move for supply assurance [2][6] - Daily production capacity is expected to remain above 210,000 tons, close to historical highs, ensuring sufficient supply for the spring farming season [2][6] - There is a need to prevent speculation in urea exports to avoid overlapping demand between spring and summer fertilization [2][6] Phosphate - The high price of sulfur is putting pressure on phosphate supply, but it also indicates a high operating rate of phosphate production, which is a positive sign for supply [3][7] - A series of supply assurance measures for phosphate were introduced in late December, successfully curbing rapid price increases and managing expectations [3][7] - The most significant measure is the suspension of exports until the end of August, as China relies on exports for over 30% of its phosphate supply [3][7] - The supply-demand relationship for phosphate is expected to become more relaxed, ensuring adequate supply for spring farming [3][7] Potassium - Key supply measures for potassium include signing large import contracts for the first half of the year and holding a supply and price stabilization meeting on January 27 [4][8] - The China Inorganic Salt Industry Association predicts that domestic potassium supply will reach 22 million tons this year, an increase of nearly 2 million tons from the previous year [4][8] - The expected monthly import volume for potassium in the first quarter is likely to exceed 1.4 million tons, which is about 700,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4][8] - Overall, the supply measures for fertilizers are comprehensive and effective, with a positive outlook for supply stability [4][8]

Group 1 - In 2025, the compound fertilizer market is expected to see an increase in production capacity, leading to supply exceeding market demand significantly. Domestic demand is constrained by grain prices and terminal profits, resulting in uncertain release times and volumes, prompting low inventory strategies across production and distribution channels [1][11] - The price of 45% (15-15-15) sulfur-based compound fertilizer is projected to fluctuate, with the average price before and after the Spring Festival showing minor changes. For instance, the price in 2025 is expected to be 2705 yuan per ton before the festival and 2707 yuan after, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% [3][14] - The compound fertilizer market has maintained high prices since the beginning of 2026, with the average price at 3175 yuan per ton, which is a 16.39% increase compared to the previous year [4][13] Group 2 - The supply side indicates that the production capacity utilization rate for compound fertilizers is expected to rise in January, but may decline in February as the Spring Festival approaches. The peak demand for spring fertilizers occurs from February to April, necessitating careful logistics and inventory management [6][17] - Inventory levels for compound fertilizers are projected to increase gradually, reaching 78.71 million tons before the Spring Festival, which is a 12.12% increase from the beginning of the year. This increase is attributed to a balance between production and sales, with limited inventory growth in January [6][17] - Profit margins for compound fertilizers are expected to remain low due to fluctuating raw material costs. In January and February 2026, profits for sulfur-based fertilizers may rise due to higher prices, but actual profits could be lower due to the execution of previous low-price orders [9][20] Group 3 - After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand for compound fertilizers are anticipated to improve, with a focus on the actual initiation of spring demand. Favorable weather conditions could lead to increased agricultural demand and higher production capacity utilization [10][21] - Cost factors to monitor post-festival include changes in sulfur prices, which could impact the prices of phosphate and sulfuric acid, subsequently affecting compound fertilizer costs. The expected price range for 45% (15-15-15) sulfur-based compound fertilizer post-festival is between 3150 and 3500 yuan [10][21]

尿素日报 | 2026-02-11 春节收单接近尾声 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-10，尿素主力收盘1785元/吨（-3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1800 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1810元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： 15元/吨（+13）；河南基差：15元/吨（+13）；江苏基差：25元/吨（+13）；尿素生产利润235元/吨（+10），出口利 润1063元/吨（-17）。 供应端：截至2026-02-10，企业产能利用率89.14%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为91.85 万吨（-2.64），港口样本 库存量为16.50 万吨（+2.10）。 需求端：截至2026-02-10，复合肥产能利用率32.46%（-9.33%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为57.95%（-8.50%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数8.82日（+2.23）。 部分厂家收单好转，农业需求跟进，预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应 量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂家春节收单接近尾声。淡储采购进入后期，部 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格偏弱震荡，主力05合约收盘价1785元/吨，跌幅0.61%。现货市场继续走 | 宽幅 震荡 | | | 高，昨日山东、河南市场价格上涨至1800元/吨，日环比上调10元/吨。现货价格表现坚挺 | | | | 但后续随着物流运力及市场成交氛围逐渐下降，市场将进入有价无市状态。基本面来看， | | | | 尿素供应水平高位运行，昨日行业日产量21.56万吨，日环比持平。需求表现趋于清淡，主 | | | | 流地区产销率回落至16% 40%区间，个别地区成交依旧较好。假期订单较足的企业报价坚 | | | | 挺，订单欠缺的企业仍有降价收单可能，春节前后尿素企业 进入累库通道。整体来看， | | | | 尿素基本面春节前变化不大，现货购销活动逐步 弱，国际市场价格上涨及新一轮印标 | | | | 逐步消退，期货盘面新增驱动不足，上有政策顶、下有需求底状态继续存在。预计短期 | | | | 尿素期货价格延续区间宽幅震荡趋势，关注现货成交情况、企业库存变化、国际市场及印 | | | ...

(1)甲醇整体受到伊朗局势的影响预期未来进口减量但下游负反 馈明显,多空交织(2) 下游MTO龙头装置停车且部分企业降负荷 生产,但1.25富德重启。 3)伊朗局势有所缓和,但不能完全排 除风险。(4)内地受冷空气影响运费上涨,西北企业排库压力较 大降价出货。 (1) 原油震荡偏强。 (2) 价格回归合理区间。(3) 节前补库结 束,假期来临,需求平淡。 (1) 检修较少,开工负荷较高,供应压力偏大。(2) 下游改善 不及预期。(3)价格回归合理区间。(4)原油震荡偏暖。g8 (1) 2026年全球投产较少,西北地区差别电价有望实行. 倒逼 PVC产能出清,未来预期偏乐观。(2)基本面较差。(3)抢出[ PVC 阶段性放缓。 (1) 宏观情绪暂时消退 盘面重新交易基本面。(2)基本面偏 弱,绝对价格低位。(3)液氯走弱,现货价格小幅上涨。1 (1) 2月CP价格上行,3月买货仍相对紧张。(2)中东地缘冲突 短期风险溢价回落。 (3) 海外寒潮驱动逻辑逐步放缓 面预期走弱,预计基差逐步走扩。(4)国内PDH开工率下滑、 润预计李节性修复,LPG需求端短期偏空,压制盘面上行。 港口持续去库,但内地民用气较为充足, ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑 PX/PTA ★ 高位整理 估值水平合理，TA 加工费 438.5(+17.4)元/吨，华东基差-76(-47)；供应端方面，近 期装置负荷略有提升（其中，四川能投装置重启，独山能源 2#装置存检修计划、 独山能源 3#3 装置正常运行，INEOS、逸盛新材料、逸盛大连、逸盛海南装置维持 停车状态）。下游需求季节性走弱（聚酯企业 1-2 月检修量合计 1592(+30)wt；终 端织造开工下滑，订单延续下行）。成本端PX供需弱平衡（PXN288.1，PX-MX141.3）， 短期跟随油价波动。TA1-2 月略有累库，但从上下游投产节奏及聚酯端需求增速来 看，预期向好。春节前警惕需求端负反馈超预期、以及地缘冲突导致原油大幅波 动。 估值整体偏低，主力收盘价处近 3 个月 23.8%分位水平，华东基差-113（-10）元/ 吨。加权毛利-1170.2 元/吨。驱动层面，供应端，国内乙二醇装置整体开工负荷提 升（中科炼化重启，中化泉州提负，成都石油重启后提负，巴斯夫 9 成负荷；卫星 石化 2 月下转产 PE，古雷石化 3 月有检修计划，陕西榆林化学 3 月部分检修；海 乙二醇 ★ 谨慎看 ...