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HD vs. LOW: Which is the Better Bet in the Home Improvement Space?
ZACKSยท 2025-06-19 14:56
Core Insights - The home improvement retail sector is dominated by two major players, Home Depot Inc. and Lowe's Companies Inc., each with distinct strategies and market positions [1][2]. Group 1: Home Depot (HD) - Home Depot holds an estimated 25% market share in the $1 trillion home improvement industry, reporting $39.9 billion in sales for Q1 fiscal 2025, a 9.4% year-over-year increase [3][4]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on deferred demand in home improvement, estimated at $50 billion, with over 55% of U.S. homes being over 40 years old [4]. - Home Depot is investing in digital innovation, with digital sales rising 8% year-over-year and the introduction of AI tools to enhance customer engagement [5][6]. - The company maintains a diversified sourcing strategy, with over 50% of its sourcing in the U.S., allowing it to manage tariff headwinds effectively [6]. Group 2: Lowe's (LOW) - Lowe's holds a 17-18% market share in the home improvement sector, generating $20.9 billion in sales for Q1 fiscal 2025, despite a 1.7% decline in comparable sales [7][8]. - The company is focusing on value and innovation, with recent acquisitions like Artisan Design Group aimed at tapping into the $50 billion Pro spend segment [8][11]. - Lowe's is implementing a Total Home strategy with investments in Pro, online, and in-store experiences, showing mid-single-digit Pro comp growth in Q1 [8][10]. - The company has trimmed its China exposure to 20% and emphasizes a competitive pricing strategy through strong vendor relationships [11]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Home Depot's fiscal 2025 sales are projected to grow 3.1% to $164.5 billion, while EPS is expected to decline 1.3% to $15.04 [12][15]. - Lowe's fiscal 2025 sales are expected to increase 0.7% to $84.3 billion, with EPS anticipated to rise 2.4% to $12.29 [15]. - Home Depot trades at a forward P/E multiple of 22.31X, while Lowe's trades at 16.58X, indicating that Lowe's appears more attractively valued [23][25]. - Home Depot offers a dividend yield of 2.64% with a payout ratio of 61%, while Lowe's has a yield of 2.17% and a lower payout ratio of 39% [27]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Home Depot remains the market leader with a strong Pro business and financial efficiency, while Lowe's is narrowing the gap through digital innovation and strategic acquisitions [26][28]. - Lowe's compelling valuation and growth potential position it as an attractive opportunity for investors seeking value in the home improvement sector [28].