Retail Industry Overview - The back-to-school shopping season is the second largest retail season in the U.S., with consumers expected to spend $38.8 billion in 2024, averaging $874.68 per household [1] - This spending is projected to decrease from a record high of $41.5 billion in 2023, yet 71% of parents anticipate spending more this year, with estimates rising to an average of $1,230 per household [2] Walmart Analysis - Walmart Inc. has shown a total return of over 39% in the last year and over 144% in the last five years, demonstrating resilience through economic challenges [3][4] - Despite a slowdown in discretionary spending among low- to middle-income consumers, back-to-school spending remains essential, positioning Walmart as a key destination for budget-conscious shoppers [4] - Walmart's EPS guidance for 2026 is between $2.50 to $2.60, indicating limited growth from the previous year, but analysts project a price target of $106.67, suggesting an 11% potential gain [6] DICK'S Sporting Goods Analysis - DICK'S Sporting Goods is a significant player in the back-to-school market, particularly for sporting equipment, and has enhanced its online presence over the past five years [7][8] - The stock is currently trading near the analyst consensus price of $219, with some analysts projecting targets as high as $240, indicating potential for upside [9] - The upcoming acquisition of Foot Locker is expected to positively impact future guidance, although it will not affect current results [10] Target Analysis - Target Corp. has struggled as one of the worst-performing retail stocks in 2025, with a negative total return of approximately 1.4% over the last five years, despite being a dividend king [12] - A new tariff agreement with Vietnam may provide Target with better sourcing options, allowing the company to mitigate tariff costs without raising prices [13][14] - The potential change in leadership, with CEO Brian Cornell's contract ending, could be a catalyst for improvement, as investors may welcome a new executive perspective [15]