：大宗商品：数据观察：观市显微镜（2）：情绪调整到哪了？

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Recent trends indicate a decrease in speculative net long positions in various commodity markets, with Brent crude oil futures reaching a low point not seen in the past year, currently remaining at relatively low levels [5][10] - Brent crude oil prices have rebounded to approximately $85 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices have risen to around $80 per barrel, indicating a recovery from previous lows [7][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Speculative net long positions in agricultural commodities, particularly CBOT soybeans and corn, have decreased significantly, with reductions of 93,700 contracts and 81,200 contracts respectively [10][30] - In contrast, speculative net long positions in NYMEX natural gas and WTI crude oil have increased, with gains of 23,000 contracts and 19,100 contracts respectively [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market sentiment for commodities has shifted, with NYMEX natural gas and WTI crude oil showing increased speculative positions, while other commodities like LME copper and precious metals have seen a decline in speculative interest [10][24] - The probability distribution for Brent crude oil prices by the end of 2024 indicates a 48% chance of prices being between $75 and $90 per barrel, reflecting a leftward shift in market expectations compared to the previous month [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The company anticipates a tightening supply-demand balance in the oil market, with OPEC+ expected to gradually increase production in Q4 2024, which may lead to a further improvement in market sentiment [7][24] - The outlook for the precious metals market remains cautious, with expectations of a potential shift towards more cyclical commodities as economic conditions evolve [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management has noted that the recent increase in North American travel demand signals a tightening market, which may improve overall market sentiment [7] - The company expects that the global oil market will experience a supply-demand shortfall of approximately 890,000 barrels per day, with the gap likely to widen in the second half of 2024 [7] Other Important Information - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal peak in natural gas demand, with expectations for prices to rise to the $3-$4 per million British thermal units range during the summer [27] - The company has highlighted the potential impact of adverse weather conditions on agricultural commodity prices, particularly for CBOT soybeans [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the oil market in the second half of 2024? - The company anticipates a tightening supply-demand balance, with a projected shortfall of approximately 890,000 barrels per day, which may lead to higher prices [7] Question: How is the company addressing the recent changes in commodity market sentiment? - The company is closely monitoring speculative positions and adjusting strategies accordingly to capitalize on potential market recoveries [10][24]