SIASUN(300024) 未来财务人研究院·2024-10-23 07:46Key Takeaways Industry and Company Involved * Industry: Robotics, specifically humanoid robots * Companies: Tesla, Hamanako, North Star Technology, Double Lin Technology, etc. Core Views and Arguments 1. Market Performance: The robotics sector has been lackluster in October, with individual stocks like North Star Technology and Double Lin Technology performing well, but most stocks showing normal downward trends. The robotics sector remains one of the few areas in the tech sector that has not seen significant growth [1][2]. 2. Tesla's Humanoid Robot: Tesla showcased its humanoid robot at a press conference on October 11, demonstrating actions like dancing, playing rock-paper-scissors, and picking up gifts. Most of these actions were achieved through teleoperation, while the robot's ability to navigate through a crowd and play cards showed its hardware maturity and nearing mass production levels. The robot is expected to be priced between 30,000, but it is unlikely to achieve significant job displacement in the short term [3]. 3. Supply Chain Developments: Hamanako announced a significant expansion plan, investing approximately 27.5 billion yen (equivalent to 1 billion yuan) from 2024 to 2026. This includes a 106 billion yen investment in a domestic factory in Japan to produce harmonic drives for humanoid robots, expected to start production in March 2026. North Star Technology plans to invest 1.85 billion yuan in Jiangsu Kunshan for the production and research and development of planetary ball screw, with the earliest domestic factory expected to start production in 2026 [4]. 4. Catalysts for the Next Few Quarters: Three main catalysts are expected in the next few quarters: Tesla's third-quarter earnings release, the launch of the third-generation product before the end of the year, and the completion of the finalization and small-scale production before the end of the year, with an expected small-scale production of several thousand units next year and a larger-scale production in 2026 [5]. 5. Evolution of the Third-Generation Humanoid Robot: The third-generation humanoid robot is expected to have significant improvements in the dexterous hand, with the degree of freedom increasing from 11 to 22, making the hand function almost fully bionic. Other improvements include material and structure optimization, such as the use of carbon fiber to improve efficiency and extend battery life. The integration design capability will also be greatly improved, with higher modularization of single-joint modules, increasing the technical threshold. Additional transmission drives and sensors, such as hollow micro-motors, brushless geared slot DC motors, and miniature screws, will be added to the neck, waist, and feet, significantly increasing hardware demand. A large number of force sensors will also be configured, but their actual application is still controversial [6]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. Sensor Applications in Robotics: Currently, sensor suppliers are mainly foreign companies, but the future direction of robot iteration may involve four aspects: increased degrees of freedom, material and structure optimization, improved integration design capability, and changes in sensor demand and potential domestic production capabilities [7]. 2. Current Development Trend of Robotics Sector: The robotics sector is relatively underperforming in the tech sector, but it has high growth potential. The market has been dispersed in the past two years, especially last year, where the market would give a valuation to listed companies involved in the robotics sector or expressing intentions. However, with the establishment of the supply chain and the approaching mass production node, the market focus is shifting from a发散式思维 to focusing on companies that can truly participate in Tesla's supply chain [8]. 3. Companies to Watch in Tesla's Supply Chain: Companies worth focusing on in Tesla's supply chain include Sanyo拓普, Zhongjian Technology, Clorox, Beida Technology, Inner Harmonic, Wu Xinnong, Wu Zhou New City, and Midea Electric Appliances. These companies have high certainty in the component field and are expected to participate in the first batch of定点 projects [9]. 4. Development of Other Domestic Companies: In the component field, companies like Lushui Harmonic, which is one of the three companies in the world that can directly communicate with Tesla, may exceed expectations despite low market expectations. In the reducer field, Zhongdali De is selected as a partner by Zhiyuan. In the motor field, there are Zhaowei Electromechanical and Weichuang Sensor. Domestic companies like Helishi Sensing, Donghua, and Anpenglong are also worth paying attention to [10]. 5. Outlook for Future Development: Focus on the finalization and mass production of the third-generation product at the end of the year and Tesla's related statements. Domestic robotics companies like Yushu and Zhiyuan are also gradually choosing their supply chains. For example, in the inclined reducer field, it is hard to avoid Lushui, while Zhiyuan chooses Zhongdali De. Therefore, each target has its unique logic. Overall, the core portfolio of targets is based on the selection of Tesla and overseas supply chain participation, and these targets will have high certainty once they enter the first batch of定点 projects [11].