China Autos & Shared Mobility_ All’s well that ends well; all eyes are on air pocket in demand post subsidies

Summary of Conference Call Notes on China Autos & Shared Mobility Industry Overview - The focus is on the electric vehicle (EV) market in China, particularly major brands like BYD, XPeng, Li Auto, NIO, and ZEEKR - The industry is experiencing a significant increase in sales, with December 2024 marking record sales for several brands despite concerns about future demand due to the potential end of subsidies Key Company Insights BYD - December sales reached 509,000 units, a 1% month-over-month increase and a 50% year-over-year increase, setting a new record [2][3] - Total sales for 2024 were 4.25 million units, surpassing the 4 million target [3] - Overseas sales in December were 57,100 units, a 103% increase, contributing to a total of 408,700 units for the year, at the lower end of market expectations [3] Li Auto - December sales grew to 58,513 units, a 20% month-over-month and 16% year-over-year increase, but fell short of the 4Q guidance of 160-170k units [4] - Full-year deliveries for 2024 were 500,500 vehicles, a 33% increase year-over-year [4] - Upcoming OTA update version 7.0 will enhance autonomous driving features [4] XPeng - December sales hit 36,695 units, a 19% month-over-month and 82% year-over-year increase, exceeding guidance [9] - Total annual deliveries for 2024 reached 190,000 units, a 34% increase from the previous year [9] - The company launched a second OTA upgrade for its P7+ model, introducing advanced ADAS features [9] NIO - December sales increased to 31,138 units, a 51% month-over-month and 73% year-over-year increase [10] - 4Q sales totaled 72,689 units, at the low end of guidance [10] - NIO launched its Firefly brand and the ET9 sedan, with pre-sales starting at RMB 148,800 [10] ZEEKR - December sales reached 27,190 units, a 1% month-over-month and 102% year-over-year increase [10] - Full-year deliveries for 2024 were 222,100 units, slightly below the target of 230,000 [10] - Plans for 2025 include launching two new models and aiming for 320,000 deliveries [10] Market Dynamics - The balance between order intake and sell-through in December was positive, but the lack of announcements regarding the extension of auto subsidies may dampen demand in 1Q 2025 [3] - Major OEMs reported strong order intake, indicating continued consumer interest despite potential subsidy changes [3] Additional Insights - The overall sentiment in the industry remains cautiously optimistic, with analysts expecting performance to be in line with market benchmarks in the coming months [5][32] - The upcoming "two sessions" in March 2025 may provide clarity on future government support for the EV sector [3] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the electric vehicle market in China, highlighting significant sales achievements and strategic developments among leading companies.