同花顺20250428

Summary of the Conference Call for Tonghuashun Company Overview - Company: Tonghuashun - Industry: Financial Services, specifically focusing on stock trading and related services Key Points and Arguments 1. Performance Impact from Market Trading Volume: Tonghuashun's performance is significantly influenced by market trading volume, with a lag in revenue recognition of about two quarters. The peak trading volume in Q4 2024 is expected to drive performance growth in Q2 2025, with cash flow metrics being crucial for performance predictions [2][4][8]. 2. Revenue Sources: Approximately 70% of Tonghuashun's revenue comes from telecom value-added services and advertising/internet services. The telecom value-added services operate on a prepaid model, leading to delayed revenue recognition, while advertising/internet services are concentrated in the second half of the year, causing seasonal fluctuations in financial reports [2][6]. 3. Record Cash Flow: In Q4 2024, Tonghuashun's cash flow from sales reached a historical high of 2.35 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year. The cash flow growth rate for Q1 2025 is expected to be close to 90%, with an annual total cash flow projected around 9 billion yuan [2][10][11]. 4. Increase in Deferred Revenue: Deferred revenue has shown consistent growth, increasing from 1.1-1.2 billion yuan per quarter post-pandemic to around 1.5 billion yuan, with some quarters nearing 2 billion yuan, indicating improved user engagement and willingness to pay [2][12][13]. 5. User Metrics: Tonghuashun has over 30 million active users, with a paid user ratio close to 10%, translating to over 2 million paid users. The introduction of new products is expected to enhance average revenue per user and gradually increase the paid user ratio, leading to stable operating cash flow [2][14]. 6. Financial Performance in Q1 2025: The financial performance in Q1 2025 was not particularly strong, with revenue growth around 20% and profit growth about 10%. Despite significant trading volume increases, the stock price opened lower, likely due to the business model and revenue recognition methods [3]. 7. Future Performance Expectations: High growth is anticipated in Q2 2025, even if trading volumes decline. The average daily trading volume is currently between 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion yuan, having doubled compared to the same period last year. The cash flow from Q4 2024 is expected to reflect in Q2 2025, driving performance growth [4][18]. 8. Business Growth Segments: The advertising and internet business, particularly brokerage referral services, grew rapidly in 2024, with telecom value-added services expected to accelerate in 2025 due to increased retail investor activity and subscription growth for trading software [5][18]. 9. AI Applications: Tonghuashun is focusing on vertical applications of AI. The stock recommendation and investment business, which was paused for three months due to regulatory issues, resumed around March 2025 and is expected to have a more noticeable impact on performance in Q2 [5][19]. 10. Cash Flow as a Predictor: Cash flow metrics typically lead revenue and profit indicators by about two quarters. For instance, cash flow from sales increased in Q2 of the previous bull market, while actual revenue recognition occurred in Q4. Therefore, revenue and profit growth rates are expected to be faster in Q2 2025 [15]. 11. Net Profit Margin: Tonghuashun's net profit margin is approximately 40%, which significantly influences its valuation. Different market conditions may lead to varying valuations [16]. 12. Future Trading Volume and Pricing: For 2026, trading volume is expected to remain between 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion yuan, with higher average revenue per user anticipated compared to 2025, suggesting continued cash flow growth [17]. Additional Important Insights - Seasonal Revenue Distribution: Revenue from advertising and internet services shows significant quarterly variation, with Q4 typically having the highest revenue, followed by Q2, while Q1 and Q3 are relatively lower [9]. - Cash Flow Trends: The cash flow performance is expected to be strong in both Q1 and Q2 of 2025, with projections indicating a total cash flow of around 8 billion to 10 billion yuan for the year [11].