士丹利：宏观战略的G10 外汇图表

Summary of Morgan Stanley Global Macro Strategy Call Company and Industry - Company: Morgan Stanley - Industry: Global Macro Strategy, Foreign Exchange (FX) Market Key Points and Arguments USD Outlook - View: Neutral with a bullish skew - Core Argument: USD is expected to rise into the second half of 2024 due to positive rate differentials and US election risk premium being priced in [9][33] - Current Account: The US current account deficit is at 3.1% of GDP, narrowing from its peak in Q2 2022 [39] EUR Outlook - View: Neutral with a bearish skew - Core Argument: EUR is weighed down by negative carry and risks of policy divergence between the Fed and ECB [9][33] GBP Outlook - View: Neutral with a neutral skew - Core Argument: High carry and a benign risk environment support GBP, but lack of policy divergence leads to sideways movement against USD [9] JPY Outlook - View: Neutral with a bullish skew - Core Argument: JPY remains neutral, but recent US data suggests potential for sharper Fed rate cuts, impacting JPY positively [9] CHF Outlook - View: Neutral with a bearish skew - Core Argument: CHF continues to weaken due to low yields and market focus on carry [9] NOK Outlook - View: Neutral with a bullish skew - Core Argument: NOK is well-positioned against G10 currencies as Norges Bank is expected to cut rates less aggressively [9] SEK Outlook - View: Neutral with a bearish skew - Core Argument: Risks are tilted to the downside for SEK despite an improving growth outlook [9] AUD and NZD Outlook - AUD: Bullish with a bullish skew; expected to gain as inflation decelerates globally [9] - NZD: Bearish with a bearish skew; decoupled from RBNZ policy expectations due to growth concerns [9] CAD Outlook - View: Neutral with a bearish skew - Core Argument: Markets are underestimating the potential divergence of the Bank of Canada from the Fed, which may weigh on CAD [9] Market Positioning - Options Data: Market is most long on NZD and most short on NOK; JPY shorts and EUR positioning noted [19] - CTA Models: Most bullish on NZD and AUD, bearish on JPY [22] Interest Rates and Inflation - Rate Expectations: Gradual decline in rates expected in 2024; 2s10s curves anticipated to dis-invert [25] - Core Inflation: Slowed significantly in the second half of 2023, raising questions about sustainability [28] Additional Insights - Risk Sensitivity: USD is highly sensitive to rates and risk assets, with performance concentrated during the London/NY session overlap [42] - Shadow Short Rate: Indicates that USD may be about 8% overvalued compared to its implied fair value [59] Other Important Content - Analyst Certification: Investors should be aware of potential conflicts of interest in Morgan Stanley Research [3][4] - Disclosure Section: Important disclosures are located at the end of the report [4]