abc 25 February 2025 Global Research China Resources Microelectronics Solid near-term demand priced in Solid near-term outlook, but likely priced in by the market We lower our 2024-26E earnings to factor in 1) more conservative GP margin (cut assumptions by 0.6-0.8ppt) and 2) the negative impact of two 12-inch fabs' ramp-up on CR Micro's bottom line. Despite the solid near-term outlook of the company's quarterly revenue/earnings YoY growth, we keep our Neutral rating unchanged. This is mainly due to: 1) pri ...

A c t i o n | 24 Feb 2025 03:02:27 ET │ 13 pages Kingnet (002517.SZ) +Ve on Dragon Nest: World and Solid Pipeline; Raise TP to Rmb19.5 CITI'S TAKE Kingnet is likely to announce FY24/1Q25 results around late-Apr. We keep FY24E estimates unchanged which is largely inline with Street expectation. However, we see upside revision potential on 1Q25/FY25E estimates given solid debut of Dragon Nest: World on Feb 20 which ranked top-10 by iOS grossing in first 3 days of launch. With 17 games from Kingnet being appro ...

Summary of UBTECH Robotics (9880.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: UBTECH Robotics - **Ticker**: 9880.HK - **Market Cap**: US$5.7 billion (HK$44.2 billion) [6][9] Industry Context - **Industry**: Humanoid Robotics - **Key Competitors**: Dobot (2432.HK), Figure AI - **Market Dynamics**: The humanoid robot sector is in its early stages, with significant growth potential anticipated. Core Insights 1. **Technology Edge**: The launch of the Tiangong Robot is expected to alleviate market concerns regarding UBTECH's technological capabilities, as both Tiangong and UBTECH share R&D resources and investor support from Beijing Yizhuang Investment [1][2] 2. **Financial Projections**: - 2024/25E net loss estimates reduced by 6%/3% due to better-than-expected performance in the consumer robot segment compared to humanoid robots [1] - Target price raised to HK$142, reflecting a >100% increase, based on a 24x 2025E price-to-sales (P/S) ratio [1][3] 3. **Valuation Comparison**: UBTECH's valuation is likened to Tesla's during its early years, suggesting a potential upside given the current market cap is only ~14% of Figure AI's estimated value of US$39.5 billion [1][3][12] 4. **Sales Forecast**: Humanoid robots are projected to contribute 21% and 37% of total revenue in 2025 and 2026, respectively, up from 1% in 2024 [24] Financial Performance - **Earnings Summary**: - 2022: Net Profit -975 million RMB - 2023: Net Profit -1,234 million RMB - 2024E: Net Profit -948 million RMB - 2025E: Net Profit -786 million RMB - 2026E: Net Profit -330 million RMB [5][10] - **Revenue Growth**: Expected revenue growth from 1,492 million RMB in 2024E to 2,411 million RMB in 2025E, with a gross profit margin improvement [10] Risks and Challenges 1. **Market Risks**: Potential for weaker-than-expected revenue growth and slower humanoid robot development [26] 2. **Profitability Concerns**: Higher R&D costs and challenges in achieving economies of scale could impact profitability [26] 3. **Competition**: Concerns regarding competition from Tesla's Optimus, although it is believed that Tesla's focus on NEV will limit its market impact [4] Additional Insights - **Investment Strategy**: Rated as Buy/High Risk, with expectations of significant growth in humanoid robots driving future performance [24] - **Lock-up Agreements**: Additional 12-month lock-up agreements for executives may reduce selling pressure on the stock [24] Conclusion UBTECH Robotics is positioned in a rapidly evolving industry with significant growth potential, particularly in humanoid robotics. Despite current losses and operational challenges, the company's strategic initiatives and market positioning suggest a promising outlook for investors.

Summary of Semiconductor Production Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE) industry in Japan, particularly the market dynamics affecting front-end and back-end equipment manufacturers [1][4][7]. Key Companies Discussed - **Ulvac (6728.T)**: Downgraded price target from ¥9,600 to ¥7,700 due to slowing demand for power semiconductor equipment [4][19]. - **Lasertec (6920.T)**: Price target reduced from ¥20,600 to ¥16,400 amid lower demand forecasts [4][19]. - **Tokyo Electron (8035.T)**: Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight due to increased market risks [4][19]. - **SCREEN Holdings (7735.T)**: Upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight, with expectations of solid earnings growth [4][12]. Market Dynamics - **WFE Market Outlook**: Slightly raised outlook for the Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) market, expecting a contraction of 3% YoY to $99 billion in 2025, followed by a 4% growth to $103 billion in 2026 [9][10]. - **China Market Uncertainty**: Significant decline in sales to China expected, with a forecasted 30% YoY fall in sales for the year [8][10]. Companies are adjusting their forecasts based on varying expectations for the Chinese market [8][10]. - **Capex Trends**: Investment appetite is weakening for power devices and mask shop tools, with DRAM makers showing increased interest in EUV exposure tools [3][7]. Financial Adjustments - **Earnings Forecasts**: Earnings forecasts for Ulvac and Lasertec have been trimmed due to lower demand expectations [3][7]. - **Production Cuts**: Anticipated production cuts for most front-end equipment, with unclear timing for market recovery [7][10]. Investment Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: Disco and Advantest are recommended as strong back-end demand continues, with both companies operating at full capacity [13][14]. - **Valuation Adjustments**: The industry is viewed as attractive due to lower valuations, with price target upside for most stocks [14][19]. Risks and Opportunities - **Risks**: The potential for a harsh downturn in the Chinese market due to US restrictions poses a significant risk to recovery projections [10][13]. - **Opportunities**: Recovery in electronic device demand and investments in AI-related technologies are seen as potential growth drivers [42][46]. Conclusion - The Semiconductor Production Equipment industry is facing mixed signals, with some companies showing resilience while others are adjusting to a challenging market environment. The focus remains on navigating uncertainties, particularly in the Chinese market, while capitalizing on emerging opportunities in advanced technologies.

Global Research ab 24 February 2025 China Medtech Medical imaging equipment expert channel check – signs of recovery Latest trends in China's medical imaging equipment sector Geopolitical risks could have a limited impact on overseas business The expert believes geopolitical risks would have a limited impact on domestic companies. 1) In Europe, the purchase of a single piece of equipment with a value of more than EUR5m would be subject to the EU's International Procurement Tool (IPI); but as the variety and ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the **US Dollar (USD)** and its expected performance in **2025**, drawing parallels with **2017** and **2018**. The analysis is provided by **Morgan Stanley Research**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD Decline in 2017**: The USD declined in 2017 due to trade policy, global growth, and European politics, with fiscal and Fed policy being less supportive than anticipated. Similar factors are expected to contribute to a decline in 2025 [1][4][68]. 2. **Trade Policy**: In 2025, the USD is expected to be negatively impacted by trade policy, similar to 2017. The administration is likely to use tariffs as a negotiation tactic, particularly with China, Canada, and Mexico [77][78][80]. 3. **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy is not expected to be fully incorporated into growth expectations until a budget reconciliation bill is passed. This mirrors the situation in 2017, where deficit forecasts remained unchanged until late in the year [4][68][106]. 4. **Global Growth Expectations**: Global growth in 2025 is anticipated to align with expectations, contrasting with the faster-than-expected growth in 2017. This is expected to have a neutral or slightly negative impact on the USD [4][113]. 5. **European Politics**: Political stability in Europe is expected to improve, reducing EUR-negative risk premiums, similar to the underperformance of EU-skeptical parties in 2017 [4][69][117]. 6. **Central Bank Policies**: The Fed is expected to cut rates, while the ECB's policies may lead to a stronger EUR against the USD. This reflects the changes in central bank policies observed in 2017 [4][119][125]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Tariff Expectations**: The expectation of gradual increases in tariffs on imports from China and the Euro Area is highlighted, with a focus on the potential impact on the USD [78][99][103]. 2. **Investor Sentiment**: There is a significant divergence in investor expectations regarding trade policy, with many believing that tariffs will not escalate as much as previously anticipated [91][92]. 3. **Deficit Forecasts**: The analysis indicates that deficit expectations have widened significantly since the 2024 election, similar to the dynamics observed in 2016-2017 [108][109]. 4. **Market Positioning**: The USD has recently declined due to positioning by investors who expected more aggressive tariff measures than those announced [87][88]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the expected trends in the USD and the influencing factors.

ab 25 February 2025 Global Research Sector Keys: Global Real Estate Optimism despite uncertain environment Equities Global Real Estate Charles Boissier, CFA Analyst charles.boissier@ubs.com +44-20-7568 4415 This report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 90. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors sho ...

Summary of Humanoid Industry Developments Industry Overview - The report focuses on the humanoid robotics industry, highlighting significant developments and trends in the sector as of February 2025. The "Humanoid 100" index has increased by 20% year-to-date (YTD), outperforming the S&P 500 by over 1,800 basis points [8][14]. Key Observations - **Growing Interest**: There is a notable increase in corporate, venture, and public investor interest in humanoid robotics, with January and February 2025 being particularly eventful months for developments in this field [2][8]. - **Performance of Humanoid 100**: 72 out of 100 members of the Humanoid 100 index are positive YTD, with 32 members showing gains of over 20%. The top performers are predominantly China-based industrial firms [8][14]. - **Blurring Lines Between Tech and Robotics**: Major tech firms in the US and China are increasingly involved in humanoid and robotics sectors, driven by the pursuit of new growth opportunities and access to high-quality robotics training data [8][9]. Investment Trends - **Funding Surge**: January 2025 saw a record high of 18 funding activities in China, with significant investments in both body and brain categories of humanoid robotics. Notable transactions included Fourier's Rmb800 million (approximately US$109 million) series E financing [30][57]. - **Valuation Increases**: Companies like Figure AI have seen valuations soar, with a reported valuation of $39.5 billion, representing a more than 15x increase from the previous year [10][57]. Major Players and Collaborations - **Tech Giants' Involvement**: Companies like Meta, Google, and Apple are forming teams and partnerships to develop humanoid robots, indicating a shift towards integrating robotics into their business models [11][37][41]. - **Collaborative Efforts**: There is a trend of partnerships between hardware and AI firms, as many robotics startups lack the capital to develop foundational models, while tech firms have the resources but need physical applications [10][11]. Upcoming Catalysts - **Key Events**: Several upcoming conferences and corporate announcements are expected to drive further interest and investment in humanoid robotics, including the Nvidia GTC AI conference and Tesla's AI Day [13][64]. - **Government Support**: Local government initiatives in China are also expected to bolster the humanoid robotics sector, with plans to produce 20,000 robots annually by 2027 [56]. Performance Metrics - **Top Performers**: The top performers in the Humanoid 100 index include Rainbow Robotics (+140%), Horizon Robotics (+136%), and Zhongda Leader (+129%), with most top performers being based in China [15][14]. - **Bottom Performers**: Notably, Tesla has seen a decline of 18% YTD, indicating challenges in its humanoid robotics segment compared to its competitors [15][14]. Conclusion - The humanoid robotics industry is experiencing rapid growth and investment, with significant interest from major tech firms and venture capitalists. The performance of the Humanoid 100 index reflects a strong market sentiment, particularly among China-based companies. Continued advancements and collaborations are expected to drive the sector forward in the coming months.

FICC Research Economics 24 February 2025 China Rising animal spirits China's H shares outperformed amid the AI breakthrough. CNY stabilised with "Mar-a-Lago Accord" talk gaining momentum. President Xi's symposium with entrepreneurs sent supportive signals. We think key things to watch for the NPC, including the growth and inflation targets, and fiscal package. Previously published in Global Economics Weekly: Deal and Peace, 21 February 2025. Equity re-rating; CNY stabilises The DeepSeek breakthrough has led ...

QUICK TAKE 24 February 2025 China SMID Internet China Robotaxi: And then there were three...Takeaways from our test ride of Didi's Robotaxi with Jan2025 software upgrade Boris Van +852 2918 5753 boris.van@bernsteinsg.com Ting Ming Neo +852 2123 2554 tingming.neo@bernsteinsg.com China's Robotaxi scene is commonly viewed as a two horse race between Baidu and Pony.AI (not covered), with Didi (not covered) a distant third. Understanding Didi's likelihood of catching up is therefore critical to formulating one's ...