Summary of Yingliu (603308.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yingliu, a leading domestic manufacturer of high-end precision cast components, primarily focused on gas turbine and aerospace components. The company has transitioned from traditional casting to high-end markets since 2015, with a current global market share below 1% [1][21][23]. Industry Context - **Industry**: Gas turbine supply chain, which is currently experiencing shortages, particularly in hot-section components like turbine blades. Major OEMs such as Siemens Energy, GE Vernova, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) report high capacity utilization and extended backlogs, indicating a supply-demand imbalance that is expected to last until at least 2028-2030 [2][28][39]. Key Insights and Projections - **Market Opportunity**: Yingliu is well-positioned to capitalize on the gas turbine supply shortages due to its available capacity, competitive average selling prices (ASPs), and ongoing R&D advancements. The company aims to increase its market share to approximately 4% with Siemens Energy and 8% with Baker Hughes by 2030 [3][58]. - **Revenue Growth**: Yingliu's revenue from gas turbine components is projected to grow from 29% of total revenue in 2025 to 48% in 2030, while aerospace components are expected to rise from 15% to 20% over the same period. Total revenue is forecasted to increase from Rmb2,943 million in 2025 to Rmb8,847 million by 2030, representing a CAGR of 25% [4][110]. - **Earnings Growth**: The company anticipates a 40% CAGR in earnings per share (EPS) from 2025 to 2030, driven by operating leverage and improved gross profit margins (GPM), which are expected to rise from 36% in 2025 to 43% in 2030 [4][110]. Customer Relationships and Contracts - **Key Customers**: Yingliu has secured long-term agreements with major clients including Siemens Energy, Baker Hughes, GE Aerospace, and Safran. The company expects significant revenue growth from these relationships, particularly with Siemens Energy, which is projected to become the largest customer by 2030, contributing around Rmb1 billion in revenue [61][98]. Competitive Positioning - **Price Advantage**: Yingliu's products may have a price advantage of approximately 20%-30% compared to global peers, which could enhance its competitiveness in securing contracts with overseas customers [10][83]. - **Employee Growth**: Yingliu's subsidiary, Yingliu Hangyuan, plans to increase its workforce by 40% from the end of 2024 to the end of 2025 to support anticipated order ramp-ups [16][78]. Financial Metrics - **Valuation**: The company is valued at a target price of Rmb52.7, implying an 18% upside from current levels. The valuation is based on a 30x P/E ratio for 2028E, discounted to 2026E using a 10% cost of equity [1][4]. - **R&D and Capex**: R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue are expected to decline from 9.2% in 2025 to 8.1% in 2030, reflecting increased production efficiency. Capex as a percentage of revenue is projected to decrease significantly as the company moves past its heavy investment phase [110][112]. Additional Considerations - **Nuclear and Aerospace Segments**: Yingliu is also expanding into nuclear applications and the commercial aerospace industry, with expected revenues from nuclear components reaching Rmb1 billion by 2030. The aerospace segment is anticipated to become a significant growth driver, contributing 20% of total revenue by 2030 [106][98]. - **Yield Rates**: Current yield rates for different blade types are 70-80% for equiaxed and directionally solidified crystals, but only 10-60% for single crystal blades, indicating room for improvement in production efficiency [85][90]. This comprehensive overview highlights Yingliu's strategic positioning within the gas turbine and aerospace markets, its growth potential, and the financial metrics that support its investment case.

Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Kweichow Moutai - **Stock Code**: 600519.SS - **Industry**: Spirits Key Points Market-Oriented Operation Plan - Kweichow Moutai announced a shift to a more market-driven pricing framework to optimize channel investments and safeguard profitability, focusing on demand dynamics [1] - The new strategy includes: 1. Adjusting product portfolio to a pyramid structure by pricing tier 2. Transitioning from a traditional sales model to a multi-dimensional model including direct sales, distribution, agency, and consignment 3. Expanding sales channels to include online, offline retail, restaurants, and private VIP clients 4. Implementing a market-oriented pricing system for various sales models [1] Pricing Adjustments - Suggested retail prices (RSP) for key SKUs: - Feitian Moutai vintage (2019-2024): Rmb1,909 to Rmb2,659 per bottle - Feitian Moutai 2026: Rmb1,499 per bottle - Non-standard Moutai SKUs: RSP cut by approximately 20-30% [1] - Ex-factory prices for distributors of key non-standard Moutai products reduced by 7-37% [1] Impact on Channel Profitability - Price adjustments are expected to stabilize the wholesale price system, boost distributor confidence, and improve market supply/demand dynamics [2] - Estimated channel margins for Jingpin Moutai and Moutai 15-Year now approach 20% following the adjustments [2] - The adjustments are anticipated to expand market share and consumer base for strategic SKUs, solidifying flagship products' market status [2] Sales Volume and Earnings Revisions - Sales estimates revised down by 5-9% for 2025-2027, primarily due to lower Moutai spirits volume and softer ASP trends [7] - Expected sales/NP decline of -1%/-2% in 2025 and -1%/-1% in 2026 [7] - The 12-month price target is revised down to Rmb1,553 from Rmb1,691, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7] Theoretical Sales Impact Analysis - The pricing and volume quota adjustments could imply up to Rmb30 billion sales reduction in 2026 [6][12] - Improved supply/demand dynamics and better product affordability are expected to create favorable conditions for wholesale price recovery and retail sales rebound in the second half of 2026 [6] Product Matrix Strategy - Moutai is restructuring its product offerings into a pyramid structure: 1. Base tier: Feitian Moutai 500ml 2. Mid tier: Jingpin and Zodiac 3. Apex tier: Vintage spirits with controlled shipments to enhance value [17] Channel Strategy - Moutai is developing five parallel sales channels: wholesale, offline retail, online retail, catering, and private traffic, focusing on an integrated online and offline transformation [21] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include potential regulatory changes, environmental concerns, slower macroeconomic recovery, capacity constraints, and volatility in US interest rates [37] Conclusion - Kweichow Moutai's strategic shift towards a market-oriented pricing model and channel expansion aims to enhance profitability and market share amidst changing consumer dynamics and industry cycles [2][20]

Summary of Conference Call on Chinese Power Solution Providers Industry Overview - The focus is on the **AI Data Center (AIDC)** power supply sector, particularly the **Chinese power solution providers** that are positioned to address the critical bottleneck of **time-to-power** in the AI buildout [3][4][13]. Key Insights - **Export-Driven Opportunities**: Chinese firms with expertise in **High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC)** systems and established OEM/ODM relationships are expected to benefit from the increasing demand for robust AIDC power infrastructure, particularly in the US market [3][4][17]. - **Market Dynamics**: The US is experiencing a severe power bottleneck, with local power equipment capacity covering only **40%** of demand. This creates an opportunity for non-traditional suppliers, including qualified Chinese companies, to fill the gap [13][24]. - **Growth Projections**: The average sales CAGR for AIDC power products is projected to reach **39%** through **2030E**, driven by capacity buildout and technology-driven ASP inflation [15][58]. Preferred Companies - **Yingliu**: A leading manufacturer of gas turbine blades, expected to benefit from supply shortages, with a projected revenue and EPS CAGR of **25%** and **40%** respectively from **2025-30E** [21][81]. - **Sieyuan**: Positioned as a top supplier for power transformers, with a projected revenue CAGR of **23%** and net profit CAGR of **28%** from **2025-30E** [21][82]. - **Kstar**: Anticipated to see a **27%** total sales CAGR, driven by overseas high-power electricals and a strong focus on 800V DC products [21][81]. - **Envicool**: A liquid cooling specialist with a projected **98%** CAGR in server cooling sales from **2025-30E** [21][81]. - **Hongfa**: Expected to benefit from rising demand for HVDC relays, with a revenue target of **Rmb2,160 million** by **2030E** [21][81]. - **Jianghai**: Anticipated to see earlier-than-expected demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors, with a focus on supercapacitors as a medium-term growth driver [21][22]. Competitive Landscape - **Supply Constraints**: The supply of gas turbines and transformers is expected to remain tight until **2028E-2030E**, with significant backlogs reported by major manufacturers [14][40]. - **Pricing Power**: Chinese suppliers can command price premiums of **10% to 80%** in overseas markets compared to domestic sales, driven by shortages and the ability to deliver faster [17][77]. Structural Trends - **Power Demand Growth**: The US is projected to see a **175%** increase in data center electricity use by **2030**, contributing to a **2.6%** CAGR in power demand [23][24]. - **Technological Shift**: The transition to **800V DC architecture** is becoming standard for new AI data center projects, which is expected to enhance energy efficiency and reduce operational costs [57][70]. Conclusion - The Chinese power solution providers are well-positioned to capture significant market share in the AIDC sector, driven by their ability to meet stringent technical requirements and deliver products with shorter lead times. The combination of strong demand, supply constraints, and technological advancements presents a compelling investment opportunity in this sector [3][4][17][72].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The global grid equipment industry is experiencing a structural shortage driven by demand for grid upgrades and increased automation in data centers (AIDC) [31][32] - In the US, power has become a significant bottleneck for data center construction, with average wait times for grid connections increasing to nearly five years from three years in 2020 [31] - Major companies like Siemens Energy and GE Vernova have order backlogs equivalent to 3.0 to 3.7 years of revenue, indicating strong demand outpacing manufacturing capacity [31] - The shortage of power transformers and tank-type circuit breakers is particularly acute, with forecasts indicating a 30% shortage in 2026 narrowing to around 10% by 2030 [37] Company Insights: Sieyuan Electric - Sieyuan Electric is one of the top-3 suppliers to China's State Grid, with 34% of its revenue coming from overseas markets in 1H25 [2] - The company has a significantly shorter delivery cycle for transformers (6-9 months) compared to competitors (2-3 years), allowing it to capture market share in the US [2] - Expected overseas revenue growth for Sieyuan is projected at a 43% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with contributions to total revenue reaching 53% by 2030 [2][51] - Sieyuan's global market share in switchgear and transformers is expected to grow to 8% and 6% respectively by 2030 [13][51] - The company is valued at 25X 2028E P/E, with a 12-month target price of Rmb194.6, implying a 22% upside [2][50] Company Insights: Huaming Power Equipment - Huaming holds a 32% market share by value and 90% by volume in on-load tap changers in China as of 2025 [3] - The company is expected to see overseas revenue growth at a 26% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with global market share rising from 13% to 18% by 2030 [3][20] - However, the lengthy certification process for tap changers (18-36 months) limits rapid market entry despite the overall equipment shortage [3][22] - Huaming is valued at 22X 2028E P/E, with a 12-month target price of Rmb24.2, indicating a 12% downside [3][27] Key Market Dynamics - The US transformer market is projected to reach USD 5.5-6 billion by 2025, driven by data centers and renewable energy interconnections [56][58] - AIDC is contributing approximately 40% of incremental demand, significantly impacting order backlogs and lead times [58] - The pricing for power transformers in the US could be several times higher than in China, with potential gross profit margins increasing from 15% in China to 42% for exports to the US [65][77] Competitive Advantages of Sieyuan - Sieyuan's competitive edge lies in its high product quality, strong R&D capabilities, and efficient market execution [81] - The company has established itself as a leader in State Grid tendering, securing top ranks across multiple product categories [86] - Sieyuan's partnerships and operational excellence position it well to capitalize on the structural shortages in the US market [79][81] Conclusion - The grid equipment industry is poised for significant growth due to structural shortages and increasing demand for modernization - Sieyuan Electric is well-positioned to benefit from these trends, while Huaming Power Equipment faces challenges due to certification delays - Investors should consider the potential for high profitability in the US market, particularly for companies with shorter lead times and strong product offerings

Summary of Conference Call on China Consumer Durables Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Durables - **Outlook for 2026**: Weaker growth in the domestic market is anticipated, while overseas demand is expected to remain resilient. The forecast includes a -1% growth in consumer appliances, supported by a Rmb75 billion trade-in subsidy assumption for 2026E [1][8][38]. Key Points and Arguments Domestic Market Dynamics - **Trade-in Policy**: The trade-in policy for 2026 is expected to be smaller in scale, covering only 6 categories compared to 12 in 2025, with reduced subsidy amounts [8][34]. The anticipated total subsidy is around Rmb250 billion, which is lower than previous expectations [9][38]. - **Consumer Spending**: Despite concerns over a slowdown, healthy consumer spending growth is expected in key overseas markets, particularly the US, which is forecasted to grow by 2.2% in 2026 [12][52]. - **Pricing Competition**: Competition is expected to ease slightly in 2026 due to a focus on profitability and rising material costs, which may support margins [10][39]. Company-Specific Insights - **Midea**: - Rated as a "Buy" due to its resilience and limited downside risk. Expected revenue/profit growth of 7%/8% in 2026E, with a target price of Rmb98 [6][18]. - Anticipated to benefit from overseas market growth and emerging business opportunities [6][16]. - **Roborock**: - Upgraded to "Buy" as it is expected to enter a phase of fast profit growth starting Q1 2026, with a forecast of 17% revenue growth and 59% profit growth in 2026E. Target price set at Rmb210 [3][19]. - Focus on new product expansion and market share gain, particularly in Europe and less penetrated markets [7][19]. - **Jason Furniture**: - Downgraded to "Neutral" due to balanced risk-reward in valuation. Expected revenue/profit growth of 4%/6% in 2026E, with a target price of Rmb32 [3][20]. Market Trends and Risks - **Consumer Appliances**: The overall consumer appliances market is expected to see a mild decline in demand, with specific categories like split ACs facing the most significant impact from reduced trade-in support [30][36]. - **Material Costs**: Rising copper prices pose a risk to margins, particularly for HVAC products, which are significantly affected by material costs [14][70]. However, companies are exploring alternatives like "Aluminum for Copper" to mitigate these risks [73]. - **Overseas Demand**: Despite moderated growth, overseas markets remain critical for revenue, with expectations for continued resource allocation towards international expansion [46][51]. Emerging Opportunities - **New Product Development**: Companies are actively developing new products in robotics and AI, which may serve as mid/long-term growth drivers [65][66]. Innovations in robotic vacuum cleaners and humanoid robots are highlighted as potential future revenue contributors [68][69]. Conclusion The China consumer durables market is navigating a complex landscape with a mix of challenges and opportunities. Companies like Midea and Roborock are positioned favorably for growth, particularly in overseas markets, while the domestic market faces headwinds from reduced trade-in subsidies and pricing competition. The focus on innovation and new product development may provide additional avenues for growth in the coming years.

13 January 2026 | 4:28PM CST Equity Research CHINA INDUSTRIAL TECH: DATA CENTER ELECTRICALS The Export Alpha – Buy Kstar on US AIDC ODM Wins; Neutral on Kehua We reiterate Buy on Kstar (12m TP of Rmb67.6, 26% upside) and Neutral on Kehua (12m TP of Rmb50.5, 24% downside), two diverging investment stories within data center electricals. While both benefit from secular power demand, we see Kstar as better positioned to capture the high-margin US AIDC growth. Conversely, Kehua remains more exposed to the domes ...

Summary of Roborock Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Beijing Roborock Technology (688169.SS) - **Industry**: Robotic vacuum cleaners and home appliances Key Points Financial Performance and Forecast - After five consecutive quarters of profit decline since Q3 2024, Roborock is expected to enter a new phase of rapid profit growth starting Q1 2026, driven by global market share gains and strategic adjustments, particularly in China [1] - Earnings forecast revised up by 7%-2% for 2026-2027, with projected revenue and profit growth of 17% and 59% respectively in 2026, the fastest among covered companies [1] - Current valuation shows favorable risk-reward, with a 2026 P/E nearing historical lows and conservative market expectations [1] - New 12-month target price (TP) set at Rmb 210, implying approximately 30% upside potential [1] Market Insights - **China**: Revenue growth of 9% year-over-year (YoY) expected, with a break-even on profitability despite heavy losses in 2025. Margin recovery anticipated as previous drags from aggressive investments are lifted [2] - **Europe**: Revenue growth of 22% YoY with a 19% margin, driven by expansion into less-penetrated markets like France, Italy, and Spain [3] - **US**: Revenue growth of 27% YoY with a 9% margin, supported by share gains from iRobot and tariff optimization. Expected further share gains in offline retail channels [4] Key Catalysts and Risks - **Catalysts**: 1. New product launch in China (Feb/March) 2. Release of Q1 2025 results (April) 3. Sales performance during major promotional events like "618" and Amazon Prime Day [5] - **Risks**: 1. Competition 2. Slower product launches and expansion 3. Increased marketing expenses 4. Weaker consumer spending power 5. Tariff impacts [5] Market Share and Competitive Position - Roborock has been gaining market share in both domestic and overseas markets, with significant growth in app downloads indicating strong consumer interest [8][10] - In the US, market share increased from approximately 15% in 2024 to around 20% in 2025, with further potential for growth as iRobot faces bankruptcy [28][31] Profitability Outlook - Profit growth expected to rebound in 2026, driven by reduced investments in washer-dryers and the exit of self-borne trade-in subsidies [16] - Anticipated profit growth acceleration starting Q1 2026, with margins recovering from trough levels in China and the US [22] Scenario Analysis - Updated scenario analysis indicates a downside potential of -18% and an upside potential of 74% in bear and bull cases respectively [1] - Current trading at 18x 2026E P/E, with a potential re-rating to 23x P/E based on historical performance during earnings revisions [46] Financial Projections - Expected revenue and profits for 2026 are Rmb 22 billion and Rmb 2.3 billion, growing by 17% and 59% YoY [53] - Revised earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are 4% and 6% below consensus, reflecting a conservative outlook [54] Conclusion - Roborock is positioned for significant growth in the coming years, with a strong focus on market share expansion and profitability recovery. The company faces risks from competition and market conditions but has potential catalysts that could drive performance.

Summary of CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd. (中伟股份) - **Industry**: Battery Materials, specifically Nickel and Cobalt-based precursors - **Market Position**: Leading global producer of nickel and cobalt-based battery precursors, with a significant market share in the nickel precursor market projected at 20.3% and cobalt precursor market at 28% by 2024 [1][9][10] Key Insights Market Leadership - CNGR holds the largest market share in both nickel and cobalt precursor active materials globally, with over 70% of its nickel precursor products being high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel variants [1][9] - The company has a strong pricing power due to its leading position in high-nickel precursor markets, with a market share of 31.7% in high-nickel and 89.5% in ultra-high-nickel precursors by 2024 [9][10] Vertical Integration - CNGR has established a vertically integrated business model covering the entire supply chain from mining and smelting of nickel to battery material production and recycling [1][9] - The company has a nickel smelting capacity of 155,000 tons, which will meet 100% of its precursor production needs by 2024, providing a cost advantage [1][9] Global Presence - The company operates four production bases in China and has additional facilities in Morocco, Indonesia, and planned operations in South Korea, enhancing its global footprint and ability to meet local sourcing demands [2][10] Client Base - CNGR's clientele includes top-tier companies in the battery, automotive, and consumer electronics sectors, such as Samsung SDI, SK Hynix, LG, Panasonic, CATL, and BYD, which contributes to stable profitability [2][10] Investment Risks - Potential demand slowdown due to technological changes and government policy shifts [2][10] - Increased competition that may pressure profit margins [2][10] - Volatility in commodity prices affecting profitability [2][10] Valuation - Target price for A-shares is set at RMB 53.9 and for H-shares at HKD 45, corresponding to a projected P/E ratio of 25.0x for A-shares and 19.1x for H-shares in 2026 [2][11] - The H-share target price includes a 31% premium over A-shares, reflecting a more attractive valuation [11][12] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the upcoming fiscal years are as follows: - FY24: RMB 40.2 billion - FY25: RMB 45.9 billion - FY26: RMB 56.1 billion - FY27: RMB 57.7 billion [7] - EBITDA projections are: - FY25: RMB 4.9 billion - FY26: RMB 5.6 billion - FY27: RMB 6.4 billion [7] Conclusion - CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leader in the battery materials industry with a robust growth outlook driven by its market leadership, vertical integration, and strong client base. However, investors should remain cautious of the outlined risks and market dynamics that could impact future performance [1][2][10]

Summary of Megmeet (002851.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Megmeet Electric Co., Ltd. - **Founded**: 2003 - **Listed**: 2017 - **Market Share**: 3% in global embedded power supply market as of 2024 - **Key Competitors**: Delta Electronics, Lite-On - **Recent Performance**: Share price increased by 260% since October 2024 due to recognition as an NVIDIA MGX ecosystem partner [21][30] Key Industry Insights - **Transition**: Megmeet is shifting from automation and control to becoming a global player in AI server power supply [1] - **Market Potential**: Expected to capture 5% of the global AI server power supply market by 2030, with 8% in custom ASIC supply chains and 3% within the NVIDIA ecosystem [22][39] - **Growth Forecast**: Anticipated total sales CAGR of 28% from 2025 to 2030, primarily driven by server power supply breakthroughs [10][29] Core Investment Debates 1. Market Share Potential - **Forecast**: 5% global market share by 2030, with a focus on custom ASICs [22][39] - **NVIDIA Ecosystem**: Positioned as a secondary supplier to mitigate risks associated with single suppliers [22][39] - **800V DC Architecture**: Transition starting in 2027 may favor established players due to reliability and trust [22][39] 2. Valuation Check - **Current Valuation**: Trading at 79x 12-month forward P/E, higher than the average of 72x since October 2024 [2][23] - **Earnings Forecast**: Projected earnings CAGR of 58% from 2025 to 2030, but 6-19% below consensus for 2025-2027 due to manufacturing challenges [2][26] 3. R&D and Product Cycle - **Product Gaps**: Significant gap in high-efficiency product portfolio compared to tier-1 peers [3][24] - **Competition**: Increasing entrants in the market may intensify competition for next-gen products [3][24] - **Monitoring**: Close observation of product iterations and customer validation is essential [3][24] Financials & Valuation - **Target Price**: Set at Rmb 86.8, implying a 14% downside from current levels [4][26] - **Long-Term Growth**: Expected 27% LT earnings CAGR from 2028 to 2030 [4][26] - **Risk-Reward Profile**: Balanced, with upside potential contingent on faster order wins and production [4][26] Additional Insights - **R&D Focus**: Higher percentage of sales allocated to R&D compared to global peers, though absolute expenditure remains small [30][36] - **Capital Expansion**: Plans to raise Rmb 2.7 billion for production upgrades, particularly in Thailand [48][49] - **Management Team**: Experienced leadership with backgrounds in major companies like Huawei and Emerson [30][35] Conclusion - **Investment Outlook**: While Megmeet shows potential for growth in the AI server power supply market, challenges in execution and competition must be closely monitored. The current valuation reflects optimistic market share expectations that may not align with projected growth rates.

Summary of China Cosmetics Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The China cosmetics sector is expected to experience a reset for higher-quality growth in 2026, moving away from reliance on high-cost Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) and focusing on popular core SKUs. This shift has led to a contraction in Net Profit Margin (NPM) due to deleveraging impacts, despite improvements in Return on Investment (ROI) [1][2]. Key Trends and Insights - **Consumer Acquisition Costs**: Monitoring new consumer acquisition costs will be critical, especially as channel migration benefits diminish and the ingredient cycle remains ambiguous. Anti-involution policies will also play a significant role [1]. - **Branding Strategy**: Branding is anticipated to be the most effective strategy for consumer engagement and new product launches in 2026. Companies with high repurchase rates and cost-efficient omni-channel strategies are better positioned for success [1][2]. - **Market Dynamics**: The cosmetics market is expected to grow at a normalized rate, with growth projected at less than 1x GDP growth. The market is forecasted to see a 2.1% increase in beauty spending in 2026, with a mix of onshore and offshore market performance [17][18]. Company-Specific Insights - **Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGP)**: Upgraded from Neutral to Buy with a target price increase from HK$89 to HK$105, reflecting a 27% upside. The company is noted for strong branding and a balanced channel presence, with a forecasted sales and net income CAGR of 23% and 22% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][9]. - **Giant Biogene**: Maintained as Buy, with a target price lowered from HK$71 to HK$46, indicating a 36% upside. The company is expected to recover with new skincare products and a focus on medical aesthetics, projecting sequential growth of -8%/+12%/+17% YoY for 1H26E/2H26E/2027E [2][9]. - **Shanghai Jahwa**: Target price reduced from RMB 31 to RMB 28, with a 22% upside. The company is on a turnaround trajectory with improving margins and cash flow [2][9]. - **Proya Cosmetics**: Remains Neutral as the company is expected to moderate organic growth while awaiting more execution on white space exploration [2][9]. - **Botanee Biotech**: Neutral rating with early signs of a potential turnaround but lacking clear growth drivers [2][9]. - **Bloomage Biotech**: Maintained as Sell due to downside risks in skincare and muted growth in medical aesthetics amid a mature product cycle [2][9]. Market Performance and Projections - **E-commerce Trends**: Tmall is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, supported by anti-involution measures. Douyin's performance has been softer than expected, with a significant decline in KOL channel performance [19][21]. - **Sales Growth Expectations**: The cosmetics sector is projected to see sustained GMV growth on Tmall, while Douyin is expected to experience a narrowing gap in growth rates compared to Tmall [20][21]. Conclusion - The China cosmetics sector is poised for a shift towards higher-quality growth in 2026, with branding and strategic channel management becoming increasingly important. Companies that adapt to these changes and focus on core products are likely to outperform in the evolving market landscape [1][2][19].