全景东盟双周报（2025 年第 10 期）： "链联通"构筑中国—东盟人工智能合作新生态 证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证 2025 证 10 证 22 证 核心观点 分析师 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 全景东盟双周报 "链联通" 构筑中国—东盟人工智能合作新生态 武赟杰 证wuyunjie_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525040001 研究助理：田冀霖 证tianjilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 研究助理：刘小逸 证liuxiaoyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 风险提示 1. 证证证证证证证证证证证证 2. 证证证证证证证证证证证证 3. 证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 全景东盟双周报 一、外交动态：中国-新加坡建交 35 周年 ⚫ 外交动态： 中国新加坡建交 35 周年。 10 证 3 证证 证证 证证 证证 35 证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证 ...

核心观点 分析师 行业点评报告·消费行业 社零增速继续放缓，各平台双十一促销抢跑 2025 年 10 月 21 日 何伟 ：hewei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525010001 陈柏儒 ：chenbairu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130521080001 顾熹闽 ：guximin_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070001 谢芝优 ：xiezhiyou_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519020001 郝帅 ：haoshuai@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524040001 刘光意 ：liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 张迪 ：zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 赵红蕾：S0130524060005 吕雷：S0130524080002 杨策：S013052005000 ...

行业周报 · 交通运输行业 油价及汇率： 证证 2025 证 10 证 17 证证证证证证证证证证证 61.29 证证 /证证 证证证 -2.79% 证证 2024 证证证 -17.68% 证证 2019 证证证 +2.30% 证证证 2025 证 10 证 17 证证证证证证证证证证证证 7.1048, 证证证证证 0.08% 证证 2024 证证证证证 0.38% 证证 2019 证证证证证 0.23% 证 对美船舶收费落地，油运干散迎景气催化 ——交通运输行业周报 1020 2025 证 10 证 20 证 ⚫ 本周板块行业行情回顾 ：证证证 10 证 13 证-10 证 18 证证证 31 证 SW 证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 + 0.37 % 证证证证 4 证证证证 300 证证证 证证证 -2.22 % 证 证证证 10 证 13 证-10 证 18 证证证 SW 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证 证证证 +3.06% 证证证证证证证 +2.57% 证证证证证证证 +2.33% 证证证证 证证证 +1.08% 证证证证证 +0.83% 证证证证证 +0.22% 证证证证证 -2. ...

Economic Overview - GDP growth for Q3 2025 is reported at 4.8%, with a slight decrease from 5.2% in Q2 2025[5] - The GDP growth rate for the first nine months of 2025 is 5.0%[5] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing investment has weakened significantly, with a decline of 1.1% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025[22] - The manufacturing sector's investment growth is attributed to diminishing returns on equipment updates and internal competition[22] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment continues its downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% in the first nine months of 2025[26] - The infrastructure investment growth rate is projected to be supported by recent central government financial assistance to local governments[26] Consumer Spending - Overall consumer spending growth is slightly below expectations, with retail sales growth at 3.0% in September 2025[12] - Service retail remains stable, while dining services have seen a decline[12] Employment Trends - The unemployment rate has decreased but remains higher compared to the previous year, reported at 5.2%[4] - Employment conditions are improving, but the recovery is not yet robust[4] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights potential risks including economic uncertainties and external market pressures that could impact future growth[4] - The foundation for consumer recovery is deemed unstable, indicating a need for cautious optimism[12]

证0755-8345-3719 证zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130522110001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 赵红蕾 证010-8092 -7606 国内经济平稳，美国财政不确定性加剧 —— 宏观周报（10 月 13 日-10 月 17 日） 2025 证 10 证 19 证 投资方面： 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 分析师 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 詹璐 证zhaohonglei _yj@chinastock.com.c n 证证证证证证证证S0130524060005 铁伟奥 证136-8324 -0373 证tieweiao_ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [1]. Core Insights - The demand for financing remains to be improved, with a continuation of fund activation [3]. - Social financing (社融) has shown a year-on-year decrease, with September's new social financing at 3.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of 229.8 billion yuan compared to the previous year [3]. - The growth rate of social financing stock is at +8.68% year-on-year, with a slight decline of 0.13 percentage points month-on-month [3]. - The issuance of government bonds continues to weaken its support for social financing growth, with new government bonds in September amounting to 1.19 trillion yuan, a decrease of 347.1 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. - The report highlights a marginal improvement in residents' medium and long-term loans, while corporate financing demand remains weak [3]. - The report suggests that the activation of funds is increasing, with M1 and M2 growth rates at +7.2% and +8.4% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - The report emphasizes the need for recovery in credit demand and suggests monitoring the effectiveness of new policy financial tools [3]. Summary by Sections Banking Industry - The banking sector's fundamentals are accumulating positive factors, with a marginal improvement in mid-term performance expected [3]. - The report recommends specific banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), and others, indicating their potential for value [3].

二十届四中全会即将召开 ——政策双周报（2025 年第 6 期） 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 政策双周报（2025 年第 6 期） 二十届四中全会即将召开 —— 政策双周报（2025 年第 6 期） 2025 证 10 证 14 证 分析师 许冬石 证010-8357 -4134 证xudongshi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130515030003 路自愿 证136-7105 -7587 证luziyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525070001 风险提示 1.证证证证证证证证证证 2.证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 ⚫ 9 证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证 9 月政治局会议 证证 证证证证证证证证 证证证证证 两项消费领域重点试点工作 证证证证证证 证 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 0.4% to 0.3%[1] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, while year-on-year they decreased by 4.4%, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In September, PPI remained flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.3% from -2.9%[2] - Production demand improved, supporting price increases in some energy and raw material sectors[2] - The coal processing price rose by 3.8% month-on-month, while the prices for coal mining and washing increased by 2.5%[2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The improvement in CPI may continue into October due to tailwind factors, with a focus on the progress of pig production capacity reduction[2] - The real estate market remains weak, with property sales area and sales value down 4.7% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively[2] - M1 growth has been rising, which is expected to support PPI improvement, although the overall PPI is unlikely to turn positive this year[2]

"增长滤镜"下的东盟消费潜力再评估 证证证证证证证证证 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 CGS-NDI 专题报告 "增长滤镜"下的东盟消费潜力再评估 2025 证 10 证 14 证 核心观点 分析师 首席经济学家 章俊 证8092 -8906 证zhangjun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130523070003 研究助理：田冀霖 证tianjilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 研究助理：刘小逸 证liuxiaoyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 东盟消费规模增长预测 证证证证证Euromonitor 证证证证证证证证证证 风险提示 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 ⚫ 东盟消费潜力的再审视 ：2025 证证证证证证证证证证 IP 证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 ...

为何进出口数据再超预期？ —— 9 月进出口数据解读 2025 证 10 证 13 证 分析师 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zha n gdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 风险提示： 证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证 证证证 证证证证证证证 证证证 证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2 宏观动态报告 1 ⚫ 10 月 13 日海关总署公布 9 月进出口数据： 9 证证证证证证证 3286 证证证证 证证证证证 8.3% 证证证 4.4% 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2.9% 证证证 2381 证证证证证证 7.4% 证证证 1.3% 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1.7% 证 证证证证 904.5 证证证证证证 1023 证证证证 证 ⚫ 9 月出口增速反弹回 ...