行业深度研究 | 通信 IDC 需求测算逻辑、估值探讨与标的梳理 IDC 行业报告（二） 引言：上篇报告中，我们讨论了 IDC 是一门什么样的生意、AIDC 与 IDC 的 差异、如何理解 IDC 需求、如何把握供给端发展演变，以及 IDC 将何去何 从。本篇报告是我们 IDC 行业报告的第二篇，聚焦市场关注点，重点讨论量 化视角下的 IDC 需求和 IDC 估值两个问题，并梳理相关标的。 如何多视角测算 IDC 需求？我们提供四种 IDC 需求测算逻辑：1）资本开支 视角：从 BBAT 资本开支计划推算，内含两个测算逻辑思路，资本开支/单台 服务器价格或单 W 投资金额，再推导至 AI 服务器需求量及其对应的 IDC 能 耗。2）应用的 Token 调用量视角：从 token 需求到 FLOPS 需求到 GW 需 求。3）IDC 厂商收入视角：预测 IDC 主要上市公司未来 IDC 收入，结合其 市场份额，反推 IDC 市场规模。4）服务器出货量视角：跟踪 AI 服务器季度 出货量，从而推算 IDC 上架需求。四种思路各有优劣，其共通之处在于把握 IDC 核心设备 AI 服务器，包括其价格、功率、性能指标。 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong government positions AI as a key industry, leveraging its status as an international data hub to foster innovation and development in AI and data within the Greater Bay Area [1] - The collaboration between Hong Kong Cyberport, Guangzhou Data Exchange, and China Unicom International aims to promote cross-border data cooperation, focusing on sectors like financial risk control, healthcare, and cross-border trade [2] - The Hong Kong government has signed a memorandum with the National Internet Information Office to facilitate cross-border data flow in the Greater Bay Area, enhancing data security and compliance [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong government plans to establish a research institute to guide AI innovation and application, aligning with the national "AI+" strategy [3] - An open data platform provides over 5,500 datasets from various government departments and agencies, promoting transparency and innovation in data usage [3] - The Cyberport will launch the largest AI supercomputing center in Hong Kong by the end of 2024, supporting startups from R&D to market promotion [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong government has allocated HKD 3 billion for a three-year AI funding program, with approximately HKD 300 million already granted to projects in various fields, including large language models and synthetic biology [4] - As of June 2023, over 90% of the computing power from the approved projects has been utilized, indicating strong engagement with the AI supercomputing center [4]

订单规模方面，字节跳动引领大基地需求增长 2024年中国智算中心在建项目快速增长，全国不同建设阶段的项目超500个。第三方IDC下单规模约为 2.5GW，其中字节跳动需求约为2GW。智算发展推动数据中心向高密度、高能效方向迈进，全球平均 机架功率不断提升，国内乌兰察布和海外东南亚成为数据中心发展的热点区域。乌兰察布自2013年起大 力发展大数据产业，签约机架规模超110万，算力运营规模可观;东南亚地区数据中心市场爆发式增 长，"SJB走廊"有望成为全球最大的数据中心市场之一，柔佛州凭借自身优势吸引众多国际巨头布局。 从市场环境来看，供需修复、价格企稳，随着需求持续增长，涨价可期 国内数据中心市场经过前期调整，供需结构逐渐优化，价格企稳。海外数据中心已出现涨价趋势，随着 AI对智算数据中心需求的增加，全球数据中心市场的供需将进一步平衡，租金价格有望回升。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦风险，政府及行业投资进度低于预期，行业需求低于预期。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，若参考字节、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、腾讯控股(00700)的资本 开支规划及对AI投入的景气度判断，预计未来三年国内的头部互联网厂商资本开支 ...

Core Concept - The article discusses the emerging concept of Real Data Assets (RDA), which transforms previously dormant data into valuable assets that can be traded or used for financing, highlighting its potential to revolutionize how companies leverage data for financial benefits [1][20]. RDA vs RWA - RDA is positioned as a more advanced version of Real World Assets (RWA), providing not just a digital representation of assets but also integrating real-time data to validate and enhance the value of those assets [3][4]. Key Companies Leveraging RDA - **Shanghai Steel Union**: Dominates the steel data market with over 70% global market share, generating 900 million yuan annually by issuing a data-backed stablecoin called "STEEL-CNY" [5][7][8]. - **COSCO Shipping Technology**: Monitors real-time data of over 5,000 global ports, transforming shipping logistics data into a payment system called "Cargo Treasure CNY," significantly reducing transaction fees [9][10]. - **Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network**: Influences pricing in the nonferrous metals market through its established indices, allowing it to charge for pricing authority rather than just data [10]. - **Sanwei Tiandi**: Enhances data credibility through AI-driven tagging, ensuring data quality for RDA applications, and plays a role in setting RDA standards [11][12]. - **Zhongxin Saike**: Collects traffic data across 80% of highways in China, enabling infrastructure financing through packaged RDA assets [13][14]. - **Data Harbor**: Provides data center services and has begun to offer computing power as RDA assets, allowing companies to rent computing resources [14][15]. - **Huayang Lianzhong**: Utilizes advertising data from over 1 billion devices to create RDA packages that can be used for financing, enhancing the value of advertising investments [17][18]. - **Great Wisdom**: Offers financial data services and has created a closed loop for data assetization, allowing users to leverage their data for loans [18][19]. Market Trends and Implications - RDA is seen as a crucial solution for small and medium enterprises facing financing challenges, as it allows them to use real-time data as collateral for loans [20]. - The article emphasizes the importance of data monopolies and state-owned enterprises in the RDA landscape, suggesting that companies with unique data or strong government ties are better positioned to succeed [21].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The GB300 is expected to start volume production in the second half of the year, with significant advancements in AI performance and capabilities [1][8] - The central government emphasizes high-quality development of the marine economy, with wind power generation rapidly increasing, accounting for over 12% of total power generation [2][10] - There is a strong growth in overseas AI demand, particularly from new enterprises, driving high capital expenditure in AI [3][14] Summary by Sections GB300 Launch - CoreWeave announced the first market delivery of the NVIDIA GB300 NVL72, featuring advanced AI performance with over exaflop capabilities and significant improvements in user response speed and throughput [1][8] Marine Economy Development - The central government is focusing on enhancing the marine economy through policy support and encouraging social capital participation, with wind power generation capacity rapidly increasing [2][10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the AI capital expenditure and related sectors, highlighting the growth potential in the optical module industry and PCB supply chain [3][14] - Specific beneficiary stocks include NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication in the optical module sector, and China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom in the telecommunications sector [3][16][17] - The marine economy sector is also highlighted, with companies like Zhongtian Technology and Hengtong Optic-Electric being potential beneficiaries [4][15]

Group 1 - The computer sector saw a net inflow of over 44 billion yuan, leading the market in capital inflow [1][2] - Other sectors with net inflows include non-bank financials (9.5 billion yuan) and banks (6.31 billion yuan) [2] - The sectors experiencing net outflows include non-ferrous metals (-44.1 billion yuan), electronics (-32.5 billion yuan), and new energy (-29.26 billion yuan) [2] Group 2 - The top stock by net inflow was沃尔核材 with 11.82 billion yuan, representing a net inflow rate of 19.67% [3] - Other notable stocks with significant net inflows include 协鑫能科 (5.36 billion yuan) and 长亮科技 (4.65 billion yuan) [3] - The stock with the highest net outflow was 好上好, with a net outflow of 4.62 billion yuan, reflecting a net outflow rate of -18.59% [4] Group 3 - The overall market showed a mixed trend with strong inflows in the computer sector while facing significant outflows in sectors like non-ferrous metals and electronics [1][2] - The data indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards technology and financial sectors, while traditional sectors may be losing appeal [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share computing hardware sector is experiencing strong performance, driven by the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology and positive market expectations from overseas markets like Nvidia [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share computing hardware sector has shown robust performance, with companies like Huadian and Jingwang Electronics reaching historical highs [1]. - Yihua New Materials' stock surged over 10%, while Jin'an Guoji successfully hit the daily limit [1]. - Several other stocks, including Aoshikang and Dongcai Technology, also recorded gains exceeding 5% [1]. Group 2: Industry Drivers - The computing hardware industry is benefiting from the rapid growth of AI technology, with PCB playing a crucial role in AI servers and high-performance computing systems [1]. - The demand for high-end PCBs is surging, leading to increased demand for upstream high-end materials, creating a supply-demand imbalance [1]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - There is a growing scarcity of high-layer and high-density interconnect (HDI) capacity, as well as a shortage of high-end material supply in the industry chain [1]. - This supply-demand imbalance presents opportunities for related companies to achieve explosive growth in performance [1]. Group 4: Infrastructure Demand - The demand for computing infrastructure is continuously increasing, with leading domestic and international manufacturers ramping up efforts to meet the surging demand for computing power [2]. - The ASIC market's growth expectations are being continuously revised upward, supporting the high prosperity of the PCB industry chain [2].

Group 1 - The concept of computing power leasing has experienced a rebound, with Data Port hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies in the sector, such as Nanling Technology, Runze Technology, Aofei Data, Guanghuan Xinwang, and Hanggang Co., have all seen their stock prices increase by over 5% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of computing power concept stocks, with Data Port (603881) hitting the daily limit, and Runze Technology (300442) rising over 8% [1] - Other companies such as Aofei Data (300738), Kehua Data (002335), and Industrial Fulian (601138) also experienced significant upward movement [1] - There is an influx of dark pool funds into these stocks, indicating increased investor interest and potential market activity [1]

Group 1 - Shengde Xintai won a bid for a thermal power steel pipe project worth approximately 217 million yuan, accounting for 8.15% of its audited revenue for 2024 [1] - High-speed Electric's subsidiary won a project for the Shanghai-Nanjing-Hefei high-speed railway, with a bid amount of 71.76 million yuan [1] - Cangge Mining's subsidiary received a construction permit for a lithium-boron mining project, with a construction area of 106,900 square meters [2] Group 2 - China Electric Power Construction signed a mining transportation project contract in Guinea worth approximately 5.063 billion yuan, with a total duration of about 72 months [3] - Guobang Pharmaceutical's subsidiary completed the registration of an equity investment fund focusing on strategic emerging industries [4] - Deshi Co. obtained two invention patents related to oil and gas field development [5][26] Group 3 - Xue Tian Salt Industry expects a significant decrease in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a decline of 76.34% to 80.29% [6] - Rundu Co. received a drug registration certificate for moxifloxacin hydrochloride tablets, used for treating various bacterial infections [7] - China Nuclear Power reported a 15.65% increase in power generation in the first half of the year, with nuclear power generation up by 12.01% [8] Group 4 - Suqian Liansheng obtained two invention patents related to wastewater treatment methods [9] - Boshi Co. signed a 109 million yuan operation and maintenance service contract for solid product packaging [11] - *ST Sailong's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for torasemide injection, used for various medical conditions [13] Group 5 - North Bay Port reported a 10.95% increase in cargo throughput for the first half of 2025, with container throughput also showing growth [14] - Kaiwei Te expects a revenue increase of 56.17% to 90.87% for the first half of 2025 [15] - Wankai New Materials plans to reduce production and conduct maintenance on 60,000 tons of PET capacity, affecting overall performance [16] Group 6 - Haiwang Bio's HW130 injection successfully completed Phase I clinical trials, showing good safety and tolerability [19] - Zhenai Meijia received a total of 22.8 million yuan in compensation for land acquisition, which will significantly impact its 2025 performance [20] - Changyuan Electric reported a 23.58% decrease in power generation in June, with a notable decline in thermal power generation [21] Group 7 - Shouxiangu's subsidiary completed the registration of two health food products [22] - Kailun Co. announced the resignation of its deputy general manager and board secretary [23] - Xibu Muye reported a 2.15% year-on-year increase in fresh milk production in June [24] Group 8 - Deshi Co. obtained two invention patents related to oil and gas field development [26] - Jingwei Huikai plans to acquire a 12.44% stake in Nuo Si Micro for 149 million yuan [27] - Electric Alloy completed the registration of its subsidiary in Mexico [29] Group 9 - Meinuohua expects a net profit increase of 142.84% to 174.52% for the first half of 2025 [30] - Guizhou Moutai repurchased approximately 3.38 million shares, accounting for 0.2692% of its total share capital [31][32] - Warner Pharmaceutical received approval for the listing application of a raw material drug for treating respiratory diseases [34] Group 10 - Yuan Dong Bio's independent director is under investigation for serious violations [35] - Dash Intelligent signed a contract for a smart project worth 11.88 million yuan [36] - Dayou Energy plans to transfer 586,500 tons of coal production capacity replacement indicators [37] Group 11 - Foton Motor reported a 150.96% increase in new energy vehicle sales in the first half of 2025 [39] - Renfu Pharmaceutical's shareholder plans to increase its stake by 1% to 2% [40] - Zongshen Power expects a net profit increase of 70% to 100% for the first half of 2025 [42] Group 12 - Yingboer plans to sell its wholly-owned subsidiary for 239 million yuan [44] - Changan Automobile reported a 1.59% increase in total vehicle sales in the first half of 2025 [46] - Fulian Precision signed a cooperation framework agreement with Sichuan Development Longmang [48] Group 13 - Nengte Technology plans to repurchase shares worth 300 million to 500 million yuan [50] - Longsoft Technology's controlling shareholder donated 3.43% of the company's shares [51] - Data Port's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2% [52]