业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 23 日 1-2 月发用电开局良好 中东局势升 级欧亚气价上涨 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(26/3/16~26/3/20) 行 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 公用事业 ⚫ 电力： 1~2 月水电发电增速显著，第二产业拉动用电增长。2026 年 1-2 月发电量 15718 亿千瓦时，同比增长 4.1%，其中火力发电 10539 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.3%；水 力发电 1560 亿千瓦时，同比增长 6.8%。总体而言，1-2 月份规上工业火电由降转增， 水电增速加快，核电、风电、太阳能发电增速放缓。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Insights - Nuclear fusion is considered one of humanity's ultimate energy solutions, currently in the engineering verification stage, characterized by its infinite resources, high energy density, safety, and cleanliness [1][15] - The D-T (deuterium-tritium) reaction is the most feasible fusion reaction on Earth, with global research primarily focused on magnetic confinement fusion and inertial confinement fusion technologies [2][22] - The global fusion industry is experiencing active financing, with a total of $9.766 billion raised by 2025, and 78% of companies expect to have their first commercial demonstration plant operational between 2030 and 2035 [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Transition from Laboratory to Engineering in Controlled Nuclear Fusion - Controlled nuclear fusion is viewed as the ultimate energy solution, with characteristics such as infinite resources, high energy density, safety, and cleanliness [1][15] - Achieving fusion ignition requires meeting the Lawson criteria, with energy balance being a crucial indicator for commercial viability [17][20] - The main technical paths for achieving fusion include magnetic confinement and inertial confinement [25] 2. Magnetic Confinement Fusion: Tokamak as the Main Pathway - The Tokamak is recognized as the most promising method for achieving controlled nuclear fusion, with ITER being the largest experimental Tokamak reactor [27][29] - The core components of the Tokamak include superconducting magnet systems, vacuum chambers, and blanket systems, which are critical for maintaining plasma stability and achieving fusion [42][43] 3. Global Acceleration of Nuclear Fusion Commercialization - The fusion industry is seeing a surge in financing, with a total of $9.766 billion raised by 2025, and a fivefold increase in new financing from 2024 to 2025 [3][4] - In China, a dual-driven model involving state-owned enterprises and private companies is emerging, with significant milestones such as the establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., which is pivotal for commercialization [3][4][11] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies involved in materials and equipment manufacturing that have received validation or orders from large scientific installations in the short term [11] - Long-term attention should be directed towards operational companies in the fusion energy sector [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental protection sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for these industries [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on the construction of a new energy system, emphasizing the integration of various energy sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power [3][6]. - It notes the recent slight decline in global gas prices due to geopolitical tensions affecting LNG supply, particularly from Qatar, while also mentioning the stable domestic supply in the U.S. [14][20]. - The report provides specific investment recommendations across various sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and gas companies, reflecting a diversified approach to energy investments [12][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, promoting non-fossil energy sources and setting ambitious installation targets for nuclear, offshore wind, and pumped storage by 2030 [3][7]. - The plan aims to enhance the efficiency and resilience of the power system, optimize energy flow, and accelerate the development of smart grids and new energy storage solutions [6][8]. 2. Gas - The report discusses the impact of ongoing Middle Eastern tensions on global gas prices, with specific price data indicating fluctuations in various markets, including a 10.27% increase in U.S. Henry Hub spot prices [14][15]. - It highlights the current state of LNG prices in Northeast Asia, which have decreased by 13.33% recently, while also noting the overall supply constraints due to geopolitical factors [28][32]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, electricity, and environmental sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the reporting period, while the gas sector lagged behind [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report mentions recent developments in energy safety and the approval of new energy storage projects in Inner Mongolia, indicating ongoing investments in energy infrastructure [39][42]. - It also highlights significant projects such as the completion of the first unit of the "Hualong One" nuclear power plant in Zhejiang, marking a milestone in China's nuclear energy development [45][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the energy sector, particularly in the context of the new energy system construction outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][7]. Core Insights - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, promoting a multi-energy approach including wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power, with specific capacity targets set for 2025 and 2030 [3][8]. - Natural gas prices have shown slight declines due to easing panic premiums and geopolitical tensions affecting supply, with various price metrics reflecting this trend [16][22]. - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [13][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines a comprehensive strategy for carbon emission control and the development of a new energy infrastructure, focusing on the integration of various energy sources [3][7]. - Specific targets for nuclear power, offshore wind, and pumped storage have been established, aiming for significant capacity increases by 2030 [8][9]. 2. Natural Gas - Ongoing geopolitical tensions have impacted LNG supply from Qatar, leading to fluctuations in global gas prices, with recent data showing a decrease in prices across various markets [16][22]. - The report highlights the importance of U.S. domestic supply and demand dynamics, noting that the U.S. has reached its LNG export capacity limit, which contributes to price stability [16][30]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the utility, electricity, and environmental sectors have outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, while the gas sector has underperformed [39]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the approval of new energy projects and the establishment of safety protocols in energy production, emphasizing the importance of safety in the energy sector [42][45]. - The report mentions significant projects in renewable energy, including the construction of large-scale wind and solar facilities, which are expected to contribute to the energy transition [46][48].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it provides various investment recommendations for specific sectors and companies within the energy and environmental sectors. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a dual control system for carbon emissions, focusing on low-carbon development and the promotion of non-fossil energy sources [5][8][9]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp increase in natural gas prices, particularly affecting Europe and Asia, with significant price fluctuations observed [13][22][36]. - The report outlines several investment opportunities across different energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [11][12][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" introduces a dual control system for carbon emissions, aiming for carbon peak and neutrality, and emphasizes the development of non-fossil energy sources [5][8][9]. - Key tasks include accelerating the transition to green energy, promoting low-carbon technologies, and enhancing resource management [10]. 2. Gas Sector - The Middle East tensions have caused a rapid increase in gas prices, with significant weekly changes noted in various markets, such as a 116.35% increase in Northeast Asia LNG prices [13][22][36]. - The report highlights that the current geopolitical situation has led to a more abrupt price increase compared to previous cycles, with a potential for shorter duration [36]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Thermal Power: Recommended companies include Datang Power A+H and JianTou Energy, particularly in regions with high computational demand [11][12]. - Hydropower: Companies like Guotou Power and Changjiang Power are favored due to expected improvements in financial metrics [12]. - Nuclear Power: Focus on China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power, with a projected increase in approved units [12]. - Green Energy: Companies such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended as new energy market rules enhance project stability [12]. - Natural Gas: Companies like Kunlun Energy and China Gas are highlighted for their potential in a favorable pricing environment [12][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental sectors, particularly in electricity and natural gas [3][46]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a dual control system for carbon emissions, focusing on low-carbon development and the promotion of non-fossil energy sources [10][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp increase in natural gas prices in Europe and Asia, with significant price fluctuations observed [15][24]. - The report identifies several investment opportunities across various energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [13][14][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Implementation of Dual Control on Carbon Emissions - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a comprehensive approach to achieving carbon neutrality, emphasizing the need for a robust incentive mechanism and specific tasks related to energy, industry, and lifestyle [10][11][12]. - Key tasks include accelerating the transition to renewable energy, promoting low-carbon technologies, and enhancing resource management [12]. 2. Natural Gas: Impact of Middle Eastern Conflicts on Prices - Natural gas prices have surged due to geopolitical tensions, with the Henry Hub spot price at $2.90/mmBtu and European prices experiencing significant increases [15][24]. - The report notes that the current supply constraints, particularly from Qatar, have led to a more pronounced price increase compared to previous cycles [42][44]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on LNG traders and unconventional gas resource companies that benefit from high price environments [44]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, electricity, and gas sectors have outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, while the environmental sector has lagged [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent regulatory updates include the implementation of new standards for ecological industrial parks and competitive pricing mechanisms for renewable energy projects in Zhejiang [56]. - Notable company announcements include significant investments in waste-to-energy projects and renewable energy initiatives [57].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the power sector, particularly in regions benefiting from rapid computational development [1]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is abundant, with a projected installed capacity of 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The share of coal power is 40%, while solar and wind power capacities have increased by 35.4% and 22.9% respectively, leading to a significant rise in the proportion of clean energy [4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of coal power as a stabilizing force in the energy system, providing reliable support for high-energy-consuming digital infrastructure, which is crucial for the development of AI and the digital economy [9]. - Natural gas prices are expected to rise in 2025, with the US Henry Hub spot price projected at $3.51 per million British thermal units, a 59.7% increase year-on-year. This increase is attributed to geopolitical factors, extreme weather, and changes in supply-demand fundamentals [35][36]. - The report emphasizes the potential for green hydrogen projects in Yunnan, with subsidies of up to 13 RMB/kg, which could accelerate the development of the hydrogen and methanol industry [1]. Summary by Sections Power Sector - The installed capacity in China is projected to reach 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, with a significant increase in clean energy sources [4]. - The contribution of coal power to electricity generation remains substantial, accounting for 65% of the total output despite its 40% share in installed capacity [4][5]. - The "East Data West Calculation" project aims to enhance the computational network across various regions, leading to higher electricity consumption growth in provinces like Guizhou and Zhejiang [6][9]. Natural Gas - Global natural gas prices are expected to rise, with the US Henry Hub price forecasted to increase significantly due to various geopolitical and supply-demand factors [35][36]. - The report notes that the LNG supply in Northeast Asia is currently stable, but geopolitical tensions could lead to price volatility [30][36]. Environmental and Renewable Energy - The report discusses the potential for green hydrogen development in Yunnan, supported by government subsidies, which could enhance the economic viability of hydrogen projects [1]. - The report recommends several companies in the renewable energy sector, including new energy operators and integrated gas traders, as potential investment opportunities [1][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and environmental sectors, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for companies involved in these industries [1]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is abundant, with a projected installed capacity of 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The share of coal power is 40%, while solar and wind power capacities have increased by 35.4% and 22.9% respectively [2][6]. - The "East Data West Computing" project aims to establish a new computing network system, enhancing electricity demand in key provinces [8]. - Natural gas prices are expected to rise globally by 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [2][40]. - The report highlights the significant role of coal power in stabilizing electricity supply, particularly for high-energy-consuming digital infrastructure [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The installed capacity of power generation in China is projected to reach 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, with a 16.1% increase year-on-year. Coal power accounts for 40% of this capacity, while solar and wind power are rapidly growing [2][6]. - The overall clean energy share is increasing, with coal power contributing 65% of the total electricity generation [6][7]. - The "East Data West Computing" initiative is expected to drive higher electricity consumption in provinces like Guizhou, Zhejiang, and Hebei, with growth rates of 7.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - Global natural gas prices are anticipated to rise by 2025, with the US Henry Hub spot price expected to average $3.51 per million British thermal units, a 59.7% increase year-on-year [40]. - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to increased volatility in gas prices [2][20]. - The report recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies and those benefiting from lower costs and improved supply dynamics [41]. 3. Environmental Sector - The report discusses the introduction of subsidies for green hydrogen projects in Yunnan, which could accelerate the development of the hydrogen and ammonia industry [2]. - Companies such as CIMC Enric and others are recommended for their potential benefits from these developments [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of zero-carbon parks in enhancing green electricity consumption and reducing energy costs for computing enterprises [16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The industrial gas market is expected to reach 1.3 trillion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 6.8% over the next four years [3] - The competitive landscape is becoming more concentrated, with the top four companies holding 54% of the global market share and the top six in China holding 72% [3] - Growth drivers include increased outsourcing of gas supply, accelerated demand from sectors like semiconductors and new energy, and short-term benefits from macroeconomic recovery and gas price elasticity [3] Market Space - The global industrial gas market is valued at over 1 trillion, while the domestic market is around 200 billion [3] - The market is projected to grow to 284.2 billion yuan in China by 2026, with a CAGR of 9.68% from 2022 to 2026 [21] - The market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five companies holding approximately 69% of the market share [21] Equipment Market - The domestic air separation equipment market is valued at 34.1 billion yuan in 2022, with a growth rate of 25% year-on-year [4] - The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2019 to 2024, driven by larger equipment sizes and increased export demand [4] Electronic Specialty Gases - The semiconductor market is expected to remain strong, with a projected 30% year-on-year increase in global semiconductor sales by November 2025 [5] - There is significant potential for domestic electronic specialty gas manufacturers to replace imports and expand into global markets [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the industrial gas sector, such as Hangyang Co., and key players in electronic specialty gases like China Shipbuilding Gas and Guanggang Gas [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the carbon trading market and related sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for companies involved in power generation and environmental protection [2][9]. Core Insights - The carbon market in China is expanding, with a cumulative trading volume of 865 million tons and a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025. The trading volume for the year increased by approximately 24% year-on-year, although the average transaction price fell by 19.23% to 62.36 yuan per ton [2][6]. - The report highlights the government's commitment to carbon reduction, transitioning from energy control to carbon control, which is expected to create investment opportunities in the environmental sector [9]. - Natural gas prices have decreased due to a combination of supply-demand dynamics and seasonal factors, with significant price drops observed in various markets, including a 39.20% decrease in the Henry Hub spot price [2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The carbon trading market is projected to continue expanding, with key emission units increasing awareness of carbon reduction. The number of units under management reached 3,378, with significant representation from the power, steel, cement, and aluminum industries [2][6]. - Recommendations for investment include companies with stable revenue sources such as Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Huaneng, which benefit from diversified income streams [9][11]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - Natural gas prices have seen a significant decline, with the Henry Hub spot price at $4.37/mmBtu, reflecting a 39.20% week-on-week drop. The report notes that the supply-demand balance is improving, contributing to this price decrease [2][12]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower upstream resource costs and improved sales volumes [34][35]. 3. Market Performance Review - The report indicates that the power equipment and gas sectors outperformed the broader market during the review period from February 2 to February 6, 2026 [37]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent regulatory updates include the National Development and Reform Commission's notification on improving the capacity pricing mechanism for coal and gas power generation, which aims to enhance revenue recovery for power plants [39][40]. - Key company announcements include performance forecasts from major players like Datang Power and Shanghai Electric, indicating significant year-on-year profit growth [41]. 5. Valuation Tables - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the utility sector, with several companies rated as "Buy," indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [43][44].