Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the alternative energy sector, but it highlights significant growth opportunities and trends that suggest a positive outlook for investment in this industry. Core Insights - U.S. electricity demand is projected to grow at a 3.6% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, primarily driven by data center expansions, which are expected to account for 70% of this growth [2] - The policy environment for clean energy remains stable, with key tax credits for solar and storage extended through 2030, despite some uncertainties regarding IRS guidance and potential tariffs [3] - There are ongoing interconnection and permitting delays that pose challenges to new generating capacity, but political pressure is increasing to address these regulatory hurdles [4] - The clean energy sector is experiencing increased free cash flow generation due to tariff protections and domestic manufacturing tax credits, which will be crucial for long-term earnings growth [5] - The nuclear energy sector is seeing a revival due to strong demand for 24/7 clean energy and supportive government policies, with expectations for new electricity generation projects to progress by the mid-2030s [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Electricity Demand Growth - U.S. electricity demand is expected to rise significantly, with a 3.6% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, driven mainly by data centers [2] Section 2: Policy Environment - The extension of investment tax credits for solar and storage through 2030 provides a stable policy backdrop, although some uncertainties remain [3] Section 3: Generation Capacity Challenges - Interconnection and permitting delays are critical bottlenecks, but there is growing political momentum to reform these processes [4] Section 4: Financial Performance - Increased free cash flow generation is anticipated due to favorable tax policies, which will be essential for capital redeployment and earnings growth [5] Section 5: Nuclear Energy Revival - The nuclear sector is experiencing renewed interest and support, with expectations for project advancements in the coming years [6]

Investment Rating - The report provides a comprehensive outlook on the global oil and gas industry, indicating a cautious but optimistic investment rating for major oil companies, reflecting the anticipated fluctuations in oil prices and demand dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $68.22 per barrel in 2025, with a gradual decline expected in subsequent years, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [3]. - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 0.9 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2025 and 1.1 Mb/d in 2026, driven primarily by non-OECD countries, particularly China and India [26][32]. - The global oil supply is expected to increase by 2.0 Mb/d in 2025 and 1.6 Mb/d in 2026, with significant contributions from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers [43][46]. Summary by Sections Global Oil Market Outlook - The report outlines a balanced view of the oil market, highlighting both supply and demand factors that will influence pricing and market stability [2]. UBS Oil Price Forecast - The forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil prices shows a downward trend from 2024 to 2026, with Brent expected to average $68.22 in 2025 and WTI at $64.84 [3]. Demand Analysis - Global oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.9 Mb/d in 2025, with significant growth in regions outside of OECD, particularly in Asia [23][26]. - The report notes that US gasoline demand is approximately 2% lower than the previous year, indicating a shift in consumption patterns [35]. Supply Analysis - Global oil supply is projected to grow significantly, with OPEC crude production expected to average 28.7 Mb/d in 2025, reflecting a recovery in output levels [43][49]. - The US is expected to lead supply growth, particularly from the Permian Basin, with a forecasted increase of 0.1 Mb/d in 2025 [81][87]. OPEC+ Dynamics - The report discusses OPEC+ compliance and production strategies, indicating a cautious approach to managing output levels in response to market conditions [54][59]. - OPEC's spare capacity is projected to remain around 4.4 Mb/d in 2026, suggesting limited room for additional production increases [65]. Long-term Outlook - The report anticipates a decrease in final investment decisions (FIDs) for new projects in 2025, which may impact future supply growth [104]. - Long-term oil price forecasts suggest a range of $70 to $80 per barrel by 2030, influenced by various geopolitical and economic factors [115].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Shenzhen Megmeet with a price objective (PO) raised to RMB 105 from RMB 60 [3][12][24]. Core Insights - The AI server power supply business is expected to experience significant revenue growth, contributing RMB 0.3 billion, RMB 4.0 billion, and RMB 11.6 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, which will account for 3%, 26%, and 48% of total revenue [3][14][22]. - The report highlights the increasing content value of power supplies in the GB300 AI server, which is projected to enhance Megmeet's market size and revenue potential [2][12][22]. - Adjustments to earnings estimates reflect a decrease of 32% for 2025, an increase of 14% for 2026, and an increase of 46% for 2027, indicating a stronger growth outlook in the latter years [3][19][22]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Megmeet are set at RMB 9.892 billion for 2025, RMB 15.228 billion for 2026, and RMB 24.219 billion for 2027, with a notable increase in the AI server power supply segment [3][19][22]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is revised to RMB 0.78, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years, reaching RMB 3.96 by 2027 [3][19][22]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - Megmeet is positioned as a leading player in the power supply market, ranking No. 3 globally in sales value as of 2024, with a diverse portfolio across various industries [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential in the AI server power supply sector, driven by rising AI capital expenditures and the company's expanding customer base [12][22][24]. Valuation Methodology - The price objective of RMB 105 is derived using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, reflecting the stable growth of the legacy business and the robust potential of the AI server power supply segment [3][24][25].

ab 20 August 2025 You are signed up to Global Economic Research on our Neo platform. Should you wish to unsubscribe from the 'Global Economic Forecast Database' without losing access to other economics research, please email ubs-economics@ubs.com. Source: UBS Global Research Global Economic Forecast Database UBS forecasts - changes this week Latest global economic forecasts All UBS economic forecasts (>50 indicators for roughly 40 countries/regions) are accessible in Excel through our "Global Forecast Datab ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the A-share market, indicating a potential bullish sentiment among investors, particularly in high beta sectors such as communication, electronics, and machinery equipment [1]. Core Insights - The A-share market has seen an increase in daily trading volume, with an average of 1.95 trillion yuan in August, up from 1.63 trillion yuan in July, indicating improved investor sentiment [1]. - The financing balance in the A-share market has been rising, reflecting optimistic views from leveraged funds, although the current leverage is still below levels seen in mid-2015 [1][28]. - The number of new investors in the A-share market was approximately 1.11 million in July, a significant increase of 71% year-on-year, but still lower than the 3.8 million new investors in October 2024 [29]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The report highlights that since August, the A-share market has experienced a steep upward trend, with major indices surpassing previous highs, attracting more external funds [1]. - The increase in daily trading volume and financing balance suggests a growing confidence among individual investors [1][28]. Section 2: Household Savings and Liquidity - Chinese households have accumulated over 7.2 trillion yuan in excess savings since 2020, indicating a potential for increased investment in the stock market [2]. - The rising M1 and M2 differential suggests enhanced overall liquidity in the market [31]. Section 3: Fundraising and Investment Trends - Public and private fund issuance has significantly increased compared to last year, with equity funds recording a 17% return, aligning with the overall market recovery [3]. - Public funds are expected to increase their holdings in A-shares by at least 10% annually over the next three years, necessitating an additional 5.9 trillion yuan in 2025 [37]. Section 4: Institutional Investment - Insurance funds are projected to net inflow 1 trillion yuan into equity assets in 2025, reflecting a strong commitment to the stock market [4]. - The report estimates that central financial institutions may have net purchased over 200 billion yuan in A-share ETFs in the second quarter of 2025 [47]. Section 5: Tactical Investment Strategies - The report recommends a tactical increase in exposure to liquidity-sensitive and high beta sectors, including electronics, semiconductors, and non-bank financials, due to improved market sentiment [7]. - Selective participation in industries such as photovoltaics, chemicals, and lithium is also advised in the context of the "anti-involution" trend [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a selective participation strategy in sectors with attractive risk-reward profiles, specifically highlighting solar, chemicals, and lithium as top picks [1][6]. Core Insights - The anti-involution campaign is broadening into various sectors, including healthcare and financial services, with mixed feedback from analysts regarding its potential impact [1][2]. - Despite skepticism in the market about the effectiveness of the anti-involution initiatives, the motivations behind these initiatives are considered valid, leading to an upside skew in share price risks [3]. - The report emphasizes that the relevant sectors have not significantly outperformed the broader market, and investor expectations are generally low, indicating potential for positive surprises in future policies [3]. Sector Summaries Solar - The solar sector is characterized by very low profitability compared to other sectors, with significant long-term growth potential and external pressures to reduce excess capacity [6][8]. Chemicals - The chemicals sector faces low profitability and is close to historical troughs in valuation, with potential for cutting outdated capacities [6][8]. Lithium - The lithium sector is noted for its strong long-term growth potential and asymmetric risk-return profile, making it an attractive investment opportunity [6][8]. Auto - The auto sector is under pressure from fierce price competition and global excess capacity, with regulatory scrutiny aimed at promoting rational competition [2][8]. Healthcare - In healthcare, the focus is shifting towards non-price conditions in procurement, which may impact pricing strategies in the sector [2][8]. Food Delivery - The food delivery sector is experiencing regulatory pressure to rectify aggressive promotional practices, which may affect demand sensitivity [2][8]. Coal - The coal sector is facing production limits in certain provinces, which could lead to slight price increases [2][8]. Hog - The hog sector is under scrutiny for production capacity controls, with recent upward revisions in price forecasts [2][8].

知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 Global Research 14 July 2025 China Equity Strategy How will a weaker dollar impact A-shares and AH premium ? Four structural reasons why the dollar could continue to weaken UBS forecasts the dollar to continue to weaken this year, and has set its 2025 year-end target for EUR/USD and USD/JPY at 1.23 and 130, respectively. In addition to ുറ്റു വ slowdown in US GDP growth and Fed rate cuts, UBS foresees four other structural reasons why the dollar should depreciate further. (1) Net forei ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the overall market, with a specific focus on iron ore, indicating potential upside if property support is provided in China [6]. Core Insights - China's GDP growth for the June quarter was reported at +5.2% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus of +5.1%, driven by front-loading of exports and earlier government bond issuance [1]. - Industrial production growth accelerated to 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the consensus of 5.6%, while retail sales growth slowed to 4.8%, below the expected 5.3% [3]. - The property sector shows signs of weakness, with starts and sales down 20% and 15% year-on-year, respectively, leading to concerns about sentiment risk if significant stimulus is not implemented [2]. - Iron ore prices are expected to stabilize within the US$90-100 per ton range, supported by potential property policy support, despite an increase in supply [2]. - The electric vehicle (EV) sector remains robust, with EV output growing by 21% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the automotive sector [5]. Summary by Sections Mining Strategy - The report highlights mixed economic indicators for China, with a focus on the property sector's impact on overall market sentiment [1]. Iron Ore - Following a decline in property signals, the China Urban Work Conference indicated a shift in urban development focus, which may affect iron ore demand [2]. - Iron ore prices could benefit from any incremental property support, despite a projected increase in supply [2]. Base Metals - Industrial production growth is strong, but retail sales are weaker than expected, suggesting that stimulus measures may need to be reevaluated [3]. Coal - The coal sector faces persistent oversupply, with production increasing by 3% year-on-year, leading to bearish fundamentals in the near term [4]. Battery Raw Materials - The EV market continues to show strength, with significant year-on-year growth in output, supported by favorable trade conditions [5]. UBS View - The report suggests a cautious approach to investments, with a focus on iron ore as a potential area for upside if property support is realized [6].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the 2025 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.7% from 4% previously projected [5][54]. Core Insights - Robust Q2 GDP growth of 5.2% YoY was supported by better retail sales and solid exports, despite ongoing property downturn and decelerating fixed asset investment (FAI) growth [2][9]. - The property downturn is expected to continue in H2 2025, impacting construction activities and consumer confidence [3][34]. - Additional policy stimulus is anticipated to be modest and data-dependent, with expectations of a fiscal stimulus of >0.5% of GDP in H2 [4][42]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Q2 GDP growth was 5.2% YoY, slightly lower than Q1's 5.4% [7][9]. - Industrial production growth edged down to 6.2% YoY in Q2 from 6.5% in Q1, while service value-added growth improved [9][15]. - The report anticipates a deceleration in economic growth in H2, particularly in Q4, with expected GDP growth of 4.7% YoY in Q3 and below 4% YoY in Q4 [5][54]. Exports and Trade - China's exports grew by 6.2% YoY in Q2, with a revised full-year export growth forecast of 1% for 2025 [3][29]. - Exports to the US are expected to decline deeper in H2 due to tariff shocks and front-loading effects [3][29]. - The report notes that global demand for Chinese goods outside the US appears better than expected, with strong growth in exports to ASEAN and EU [26][29]. Fixed Asset Investment - FAI growth decelerated to 2.1% YoY in Q2 from 4.2% in Q1, with property investment contracting by -12.1% [13][54]. - Equipment purchases remained strong, contributing positively to overall FAI growth [13][19]. Consumption - Retail sales growth moderated to 4.8% YoY in June from 6.4% in May, with expectations of decelerating consumption growth in H2 due to high base effects from trade-in subsidies [11][35]. - The report highlights that household disposable income growth may slow, impacting consumption without fiscal subsidies [35][54]. Policy Stimulus - The government is expected to deliver additional fiscal stimulus in H2, but the scale is likely to be modest at >0.5% of GDP [4][42]. - The People's Bank of China (PBC) is anticipated to cut policy rates by another 20-30 basis points in H2 [4][42]. Currency Outlook - The report suggests that the Chinese Yuan (CNY) may strengthen in the near term but could weaken towards the end of 2025, with expectations of a range of 7.0-7.3 against the US dollar in H2 [56][54].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies including NVIDIA, AMD, and TSMC, indicating a positive outlook for these firms in the technology sector [33]. Core Insights - The resumption of NVIDIA's H20 GPU sales to China is expected to positively impact the APAC technology supply chain, particularly benefiting companies like Inventec and Wistron [2][4]. - AMD's MI308X license applications for export to China are moving forward, which could lead to a recovery in revenue after significant write-downs [3]. - The overall demand for NVIDIA's RTX GPU series may moderate due to the increased availability of H20 GPUs, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [4][6]. Summary by Sections NVIDIA and AMD Developments - NVIDIA is filing applications to resume sales of the H20 GPU, with government assurances for license approval, and has introduced a compliant RTX PRO GPU [2]. - AMD's license applications for MI308X are under review, with expectations of resuming shipments as approvals are granted, despite prior inventory write-downs of approximately US$800 million [3]. APAC Technology Supply Chain - Inventec is positioned to benefit significantly from the H20 server rack business, with 10% of shipments to China potentially generating over 20% of sales due to higher average selling prices (ASPs) [4]. - Other ODMs like Wistron and Hon Hai are also expected to gain from the H20 export relief, enhancing their revenue prospects [4]. Semiconductor and HBM Market - The relaxation of export controls on NVIDIA's AI GPUs is anticipated to benefit upstream suppliers like TSMC and KYEC, with projections of significant growth in CoWoS demand [8]. - Samsung is expected to be the main beneficiary in the HBM market due to the resumption of H20 sales, with forecasts indicating substantial quarter-over-quarter growth in HBM bit demand [10]. Price Dynamics and Market Trends - The report notes a potential moderation in RTX GPU sales due to cannibalization from H20, with expectations of price adjustments in the secondary market [6]. - The demand for HBM is projected to surge with the resumption of H20 shipments, despite ongoing localization efforts in China [9].