Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on Dongpeng Beverage (09980), projecting that its market share growth in China will enable it to consistently outperform peers [1] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve an average revenue growth rate of 25% and a core net profit growth rate of 16% by Q4 2025 [1] - For 2026, the anticipated year-on-year growth rates for energy drinks, sports drinks, and other products are 15%, 42%, and 50% respectively, supporting an overall revenue growth of 22% [1] Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 315 for Dongpeng Beverage, with a rating of "Overweight" [1]

摩根大通发布研报称，首次覆盖东鹏饮料（605499）(09980)，相信其在中国市场份额的增长将带领其 持续超越同业。据公司2025年初步业绩预测，2025年第四季度收入和核心净利润的平均增长率分别为 25%和16%，对于2026年，该行预料，能量饮料、运动饮料和其他产品将分别同比升15%、42%和 50%，以支撑总收入同比增长22%。该行给予其目标价为315港元，评级为"增持"。 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly after four consecutive declines, with the consumption ETF Huatai (159268) rising nearly 1% and trading volume reaching approximately 600 million yuan [1] - Major component stocks showed positive performance, with Haidilao increasing nearly 6%, Anta Sports rising over 3%, and China Duty Free and Mengniu Dairy both up over 1% [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - Shanghai's five departments issued a notice to optimize real estate policies, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and housing provident fund loan policies, effective from February 26, 2026 [3] - A recent meeting emphasized the importance of supporting local and enterprise initiatives to explore new growth points, particularly in the silver economy and elderly care services [3] Group 3: Consumer Trends - During the Spring Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 596 million trips, an increase of 95 million compared to the previous year, with total spending of 803.48 billion yuan, marking a historical high [3] - The consumption sector in A-shares rebounded after three consecutive declines, with the leading consumption ETF (159928) rising over 1% and net inflows exceeding 48 million yuan in the past five days [3] Group 4: Service Consumption Insights - The hotel industry saw a significant increase in revenue per available room (REVPAR) by 30.7% during the Spring Festival week compared to the previous year, driven by strong demand and price stabilization among leading groups [6] - Hainan's duty-free shopping during the Spring Festival saw a 19% increase in spending and a 24.6% increase in visitors compared to the same period last year [7] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The focus on expanding domestic demand is becoming a long-term strategy for China's economic growth, with an emphasis on improving residents' income and enhancing service consumption [9] - Signs of recovery in domestic demand are evident, with consumer confidence stabilizing and an increase in disposable income growth rates [10] - The real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization after years of decline, with recent policy changes aimed at improving market conditions [11]

摩根大通发表研报，首次覆盖东鹏饮料港股并予"增持"评级及目标价315港元，相信其在中国市场份额 的增长将带领其持续超越同业。据公司2025年初步业绩预测，第四季收入和核心净利润的平均增长率分 别为25%和16%，低于市场预期。对于2026年，该行预计能量饮料、运动饮料和其他产品将分别按年升 15%、42%和50%，以支撑总收入按年增长22%。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Consumer Staples: Spirits and Dairy Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the spirits and dairy sectors in China, particularly in the Hunan province, highlighting the performance of major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Mengniu. Spirits Sector Moutai - Feitian Moutai's retail sales volume increased by over 20% year-on-year during the Chinese New Year (CNY) period, exceeding expectations despite shipment controls on non-standard SKUs [1][9] - Moutai 1935 showed mild growth, outperforming other products in the Moutai series [1][9] - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai rose to approximately Rmb1,700, with channel inventory remaining stable at around 0.5 months [1][9] - The expert anticipates that Moutai could bottom out around mid-2026 if retail sales momentum remains strong [2][6] Wuliangye - Common Wuliangye experienced mid-single-digit percentage retail volume growth in early February, gaining market share from Guojiao 1573 due to enhanced affordability [1][9] - The effective ex-factory price for Common Wuliangye decreased to around Rmb810, with expectations of further reductions [1][9] - The company achieved a 40% prepayment target by the end of CNY, although this pace is slightly slower than the previous year [1][9] Luzhou Laojiao - Guojiao 1573's retail volume dropped by approximately 30% during the CNY period, facing challenges in maintaining wholesale price stability [1][8] - Luzhou Laojiao is under pressure to stabilize prices amid declining demand [2][6] Other Brands - Brands like Fen Wine, Yanghe, Jiugui, and Shede saw broad-based sales declines of 15-20% [1][14] - Fen Wine's Qinghua series experienced a low-teens percentage decline, while Bofen remained slightly positive [1][14] Dairy Sector - Both Yili and Mengniu reported positive sell-in shipments during January, but holiday sell-through saw a slight decline due to weakening gifting demand [1][12] - Premium products like Satine and Deluxe outperformed basic white milk, indicating a shift in consumer preference [1][12] - Mengniu's sales decline narrowed to low-single digits compared to low-teens last year, aided by a lower comparison base [1][12] - The expert remains cautious about 2026 full-year sell-in targets, suggesting a more realistic outlook of flat to -5% for Yili and +6% for Mengniu [1][12] Beverages Sector - Nongfu's small-pack water and sugar-free tea registered high-single-digit percentage sell-through growth, while large-pack volume doubled due to strong promotions [1][13] - CR Beverages and Wahaha experienced declines in water sales, indicating competitive pressures [1][13] - Eastroc is on track to meet its 20% sales growth target, with energy drinks growing just under 15% [1][16] Inventory and Prepayment Insights - Moutai and Wuliangye maintain low channel inventories of 0.5 to 1 month, while other upper-mid-end brands face over 2.5 months of inventory [1][11] - Prepayment progress for various brands is lagging behind last year, with Wuliangye and Laojiao showing slower prepayment paces [1][14] Conclusion - The spirits sector shows a divergence in performance, with Moutai leading and Wuliangye following, while other brands face significant challenges. The dairy sector is experiencing a shift towards premium products, and the beverage sector is consolidating with strong growth from Nongfu. Overall, cautious optimism is noted for the upcoming periods, with varying recovery timelines across brands.

春节食品动销表现几何？后市如何看？20260223 摘要 春节期间，社会消费呈现强劲复苏态势，零售餐饮企业日均销售额同比 增长 8.6%，为主要长假中高增速水平。春运期间人员流动量显著增加， 节后流动量同比增速达 11.1%，途牛数据显示人均出游天数同比增加 1.1 天，达 5.9 天，反映消费意愿增强。 大众食品消费方面，企业库存清理完毕，渠道新鲜度高，经销商信心恢 复，备货充足。礼盒消费依然火热，但消费者更注重性价比，价格集中 在 50-100 元区间。下沉市场表现良好，价格折扣竞争减缓，零售终端 价格坚挺。 乳制品行业表现分化，华东和华中地区增长显著，常温液奶增长约 7%，伊利、蒙牛分别增长 8-9%和 5-6%，常温酸奶结束下跌态势，实 现正增长。华南地区表现偏弱，但渠道库存不高，高端品类保持增长， 君乐宝低温产品增速约 20%。 现制茶饮行业受益于暖冬天气和出行旺盛，同店 GMV 表现良好，蜜雪 冰城、古茗、瑞幸等品牌均有超过 10%的增长。堂食消费为主，加盟商 利润较高，外卖补贴压力有限，预计全年同店 GMV 将保持平稳。 Q&A 2026 年春节期间大众食品整体表现如何？ 2026 年春节期间， ...

公司跟踪报告 · 食品饮料行业 | 东鹏饮料（股票代码：605499） | | --- | 推荐 维持评级 分析师 迈向平台型公司，再迎布局时点 —— 东鹏饮料动态更新报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 15,839 | 21,108 | 27,085 | 32,964 | | 收入增长率% | 40.63 | 33.27 | 28.31 | 21.71 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3,327 | 4,547 | 5,914 | 7,271 | | 利润增长率% | 63.09 | 36.69 | 30.06 | 22.93 | | PE | 44.65 | 32.66 | 25.11 | 20.43 | 资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究院 刘光意 ：021-20252650 ：liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 研究助理：彭潇颖 ： ...

财通证券（601108）发布研报称，预计华润饮料(02460)2026-2027年实现营业收入118/127亿元（同比变 动+7%/+7% ），归母净利润12.1/14.0亿元（同比变动+26%/+16%），对应PE分别为21X/18X，维持"增 持"评级。 财通证券主要观点如下： 水业务挑战与机遇共存 该行认为，数字化能够有效赋能饮料生产端及渠道端，在生产端，根据中国食品工业协会，数字化智能 化改造能将饮料生产的综合效率提升20%-30%；在渠道端，目前东鹏饮料（605499）凭借"五码合一"掌 握终端动销数据，实现单点效益的有效监控。公司在数字化建设方面仍有较为充足的发展空间，2012- 2020年期间高立先生担任华润饮料财务总监，曾经全面推广终端管理系统SUP和经销商协同平台 DMS，后续有望引领公司打造全链路数字化。 渠道扁平化改革 2025年公司推行渠道改革，通过渠道层级削减、增加单层级利润，提升渠道效率以及客户积极性，同时 设立饮料专项经销商、拓展新兴渠道（扩大线上销售、自动贩卖机销售）、突破餐饮等核心渠道、开发 特渠经销商。该行认为渠道改革虽然短期会引起业绩端阵痛，但长期来看将利好公司增强终端掌 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，基于节后渠道调研反馈，春节白酒动销整体符合节前市场预 期，预计全渠道动销量同比下滑约10%-15%。今年春节行业动销仍有所回落主要系泛政商务需求疲软所 致，其背后反映消费场景修复仍存在缺口，且商务招待支出意愿趋于审慎。从大众品表现来看，春节期 间预计显著改善的为餐饮链(调味品、速冻等)板块，春节聚餐、外出旅行等场景均显著拉动需求增长， 节前经销商备货仍较为谨慎，库存处于合理水平。 国金证券主要观点如下： 白酒板块：春节动销符合预期，飞天茅台量价均占优 基于节后渠道调研反馈，春节白酒动销整体符合节前市场预期，预计全渠道动销量同比下滑约 10%-15%。其中，略超预期的反馈在于：节前&节内飞天茅台批价表现相对不错、未有显性回落，当前 原箱批价仍在1700元以上；部分区域节内大众价位产品有零星终端补货行为，当然这也与近年来终端小 批量、高频次进货习惯相关，目的是规避资金占用和存货跌价风险，但仍反映一定的动销韧性。 分消费场景拆解来看：今年春节行业动销仍有所回落主要系泛政商务需求疲软所致，其背后反映消费场 景修复仍存在缺口，且商务招待支出意愿趋于审慎；相较之下，泛大众消费需求表 ...

行业点评（R3）- 无重点股票 食品饮料 白酒表现分化，大众品价稳量升 食品饮料行业春节跟踪点评 投资要点： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 评级 领先大市 评级变动： 维持 行业涨跌幅比较 30% 食品饮料 沪深300 % 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料 3.28 -3.44 -3.56 沪深 300 -0.90 4.64 17.14 黄静 分析师 -10% 0% 10% 20% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-11 | 执业证书编号:S0530524020001 | | | --- | --- | | huangjing48@hnchasing.com | | | 胡跃才 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530525070001 | | | huyuecai@hnchasing.com | | 证券研究报告 投资建议：考虑食品饮料板块低预期、低估值、低持仓的特征，以 及板块呈现企稳改善的态势，我们维持板块"领先大市"的评级。 白酒方面，建议关注品牌力强、量价策略改善的龙头企业；大众品 方面，建议关注β企稳、α持续释放的速冻食品龙头；竞争格局稳 固，价盘有望边际改善的乳品龙头 ...