Equities have a history of poor performance in midterm election years. Additionally, single-party control of both houses of Congress and the Presidency has historically correlated with worse overall market returns . For example, in years in which Republicans had fullMy name is David B McMillan and I am an investor interested in fundamental valuation. My philosophy is fundamental investing - I seek to identify underpriced securities relative to their potential future cash flows. I also use tactical allocatio ...

THE RUNDOWNMACRO › Q4 GDP came in at 1.4%, well below the 2.8% estimate. The government shutdown gets most of the blame. Full-year 2025 GDP grew 2.2%, down from 2.4% the year before. Core PCE inflation held at 3%, which keeps the Fed stuck. Kashkari said Thursday that rates are “pretty close to neutral,” but also called crypto “utterly useless,” which was a fun bonus.GEOPOLITICAL › The U.S. has assembled its largest air power presence in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion, per the WSJ. Iran nuclea ...

The annual event known as Ethereum Denver returned last week, as a tribe of crypto faithful descended upon the rodeo grounds of Colorado’s largest city to geek out about the world’s second most popular blockchain. Unlike the noisy religious revival feel of Bitcoin gatherings, the vibe at Ethereum events is more akin to a tech-infused folk festival. This year’s conference was subdued compared to previous ones that coincided with to-the-moon market rallies but, contrary to the image of a forsaken hellscape t ...

Group 1: Cipher Mining - Cipher Mining is focused on creating AI data centers that address significant challenges in artificial intelligence, which is crucial for big tech companies [3] - The company has long-term agreements with Amazon and Alphabet, translating into high annual recurring revenue, with only a fraction of its total pipeline utilized [6] - Cipher Mining's crypto revenue reached $71 million in Q3 2025, and the Amazon deal is expected to more than double total revenue [7] - The company has a market cap of $5.8 billion and significant cash reserves of $1.2 billion, which will support further expansion of AI data centers [9] Group 2: SoFi Technologies - SoFi is a high-growth online bank that has seen a 37% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4 2025, despite a nearly 30% decline in stock price year-to-date [10] - The company relaunched crypto trading in December 2025, attracting over 63,000 customers within ten days, indicating strong interest in this segment [10] - SoFi has diversified its revenue streams beyond loans, with interest revenue from loans increasing by 30% year-over-year, supported by a rise in consumer deposits [13] - The company has 13.7 million members and is well-positioned for growth, particularly with the potential for a future crypto bull market [14]

Core Insights - The Supreme Court is set to make a significant decision regarding tariffs that could impact market stability and investor sentiment [1] - Concerns are rising in the private credit sector, indicating potential vulnerabilities within this financial segment [1] - Ongoing discussions in the White House regarding a stalled cryptocurrency bill suggest regulatory uncertainty that may affect the crypto market [1] Group 1: Tariff Decision - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs is anticipated to have a profound effect on market dynamics, potentially leading to increased volatility [1] - Investors are closely monitoring this decision as it could influence trade policies and economic forecasts [1] Group 2: Private Credit Concerns - There is a growing apprehension about the state of private credit markets, with indications that defaults may rise, affecting overall credit availability [1] - This sector's health is crucial for funding small to medium-sized enterprises, and any downturn could have broader economic implications [1] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Regulation - The White House's protracted negotiations over the cryptocurrency bill highlight the complexities of regulatory frameworks in the digital asset space [1] - The delay in legislation may hinder innovation and investment in the cryptocurrency sector, as companies await clearer guidelines [1]

As Bitcoin struggles to hold $67,000, options markets are flashing warning signs as traders aggressively bid up downside protection to hedge against a potential capitulation event. By early morning, UTC, BTC had climbed 1% over 24 hours to trade near $67,000, recovering from an uneasy dip below the $66,000 handle. The setup remains precarious. Even as price action steadies, the average U.S. ETF investor is nursing a stinging 20% paper loss, with a cost basis near $84,000. This fragility comes after a br ...

Core Insights - Alliant Energy reported a fourth-quarter profit that exceeded Wall Street estimates, driven by strong power demand and solid performance in its electric and gas segments [1] Financial Performance - Revenue from Alliant's electric utility business increased to $870 million in Q4, up from $793 million year-over-year [1] - Quarterly revenue from the gas segment rose approximately 11% to $159 million [1] - Adjusted profit for the fourth quarter was 60 cents per share, surpassing analysts' expectations of 58 cents per share [1] - Operating expenses for the quarter rose to $868 million, compared to $754 million in the previous year [1] Future Outlook - The company reaffirmed its profit guidance for 2026, projecting earnings of $3.36 to $3.46 per share [1] - Alliant Energy anticipates annual capital expenditures of $3.13 billion [1] Market Context - U.S. electricity usage reached record highs last year and is expected to continue rising, particularly due to the expansion of AI and crypto data centers, as well as a shift from fossil fuels to electricity for heating and vehicles [1]

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack. GM! Today’s top news: Crypto majors slightly red despite Iran escalation; BTC at $67.3k Dragonfly raises $650M for 4th crypto venture fund Sigil Wen introduces Web 4.0 as AI agents that power themselves via crypto Pump.fun launches Cashback Coins, routing fees to traders vs creators Zora announc ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Michael Saylor's Strategy acquired an additional 2,486 Bitcoin for $168.4 million at an average price of $67,710 per BTC, bringing total holdings to 717,131 BTC, making it the largest institutional crypto holder with $54.52 billion in Bitcoin [1] - The company's average cost basis for Bitcoin is $76,027 per coin, resulting in unrealized losses approaching $7 billion as of early February 2026 due to a nearly 23% decline in Bitcoin since the start of 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Despite the bear market, Saylor has continued to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin since August 2020, indicating a belief in a market recovery with statements like "spring is coming" [3] - Analysts are divided on the potential for forced selling if Strategy's stock price collapses, with some suggesting that investors might prefer buying Bitcoin directly rather than holding Strategy stock [4] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Long-term holders view Bitcoin's volatility as temporary, and unless Bitcoin falls below the critical support level of $58,800, Strategy is expected to maintain its position [5] - Metaplanet, the fourth-largest public corporate Bitcoin holder, reported a $619 million loss for the fiscal year but continues to buy Bitcoin, aiming for a long-term target of owning 1% of the total Bitcoin supply [6][7]

Core Insights - Inflection has gone public through a SPAC merger, raising $550 million to capitalize on emerging quantum opportunities [1][3] - The capital will be allocated to research and development, as well as sales and marketing, focusing on quantum technologies beyond just quantum computing [4][5] Funding and Allocation - The $550 million raised will be divided into two main areas: research and development, and sales and marketing [4] - The R&D efforts will focus on developing quantum sensors and computing technologies, with a roadmap aiming for useful quantum computing by the end of 2028 [6][14] Technology and Differentiation - Inflection's quantum technology is based on neutral atoms, allowing for a flexible approach that does not require cryogenic freezers, differentiating it from competitors [9][10] - The company aims to address various applications, including clocks, sensors, and computers, rather than solely focusing on quantum computing [10][11] Market Applications and Partnerships - Current use cases for quantum sensing include a $20 million contract with NASA to deploy sensors for gravity sensing, which can provide insights into environmental changes [17][18] - The company anticipates that quantum computing will start to deliver commercially useful applications in material science by 2028 [14][15] Industry Context - Quantum computing poses a potential risk to cryptocurrency due to its ability to break encryption methods that are currently secure against classical computers [19]