Bitcoin is sinking closer to its April tariff lows. A boost from easing monetary policy might help, but investors are cautious right now. ...

Core Insights - SoFi achieved its first billion-dollar revenue quarter, driven by cross-selling strategies that deepened member engagement in lending, deposits, and investing [1][3] - The company added a record 1 million new members in Q4, increasing total membership to 13.7 million, and introduced 1.6 million new products, raising the total to over 20 million [4] - Adjusted net revenue reached $1.013 billion, a 37% increase year over year, with total loan originations surpassing $10 billion for the first time [5] Financial Performance - Full-year adjusted net revenue for 2025 was $3.6 billion, up 38%, while adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.1 billion, a 58% rise [8] - Fee-based revenue for the quarter was $443 million, reflecting a more than 50% increase from the previous year, with annualized fee revenue nearing $1.8 billion [7] Product and Service Expansion - SoFi's crypto offerings transitioned from experimental to operational, launching international payments and consumer crypto trading, alongside the introduction of its stablecoin, SoFi USD [9][10] - The technology platform, including Galileo, is seeing increased interest from enterprise clients, particularly in the crypto space [12] Consumer Behavior and Outlook - Credit metrics remain stable, with personal loan borrowers averaging a FICO score of 746 and student loan borrowers at 765, indicating a resilient consumer backdrop [13] - For 2026, SoFi projects adjusted net revenue of approximately $4.7 billion, equating to around 30% top-line growth [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, adjusted net revenue reached a record of $3.6 billion, up 38% year-over-year [32] - Adjusted EBITDA was also a record at $1.1 billion, up 58% year-over-year, with a margin of 29% [32] - Net income for the year was $481 million, representing a margin of 13% [32] - In Q4 2025, adjusted net revenue grew 37% year-over-year to $1.013 billion, marking the first billion-dollar quarter [33] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $318 million, with a margin of 31% [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial services generated record revenue of over $1.5 billion in 2025, up 88% from the prior year [34] - The lending segment achieved record adjusted net revenue of over $1.8 billion in 2025, up 24% from the prior year [38] - The tech platform generated record revenue of over $450 million in 2025 [36] - In Q4, the Loan Platform Business generated $194 million in adjusted net revenue, nearly 3x higher than the same period last year [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added a record 1 million new members in Q4, increasing total members by 35% year-over-year to 13.7 million [8] - The company achieved a cross-buy rate of 40% for new products opened by existing members, up 7 percentage points year-over-year [9] - Brand awareness reached an all-time high of 9.6%, up 250 basis points from Q4 2024 [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its one-stop-shop model to drive durable growth and innovation across its product offerings [5][13] - Plans to expand into new areas such as crypto, AI, and business banking, capitalizing on a strong balance sheet and member base [7][17] - The company is focused on enhancing product quality and brand awareness to drive customer acquisition and reduce marketing costs [60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's prospects, citing a strong member base and innovative product offerings [13] - The company expects to increase total members by at least 30% year-over-year in 2026, with adjusted net revenue projected at approximately $4.655 billion [49] - The outlook includes expectations for continued strong revenue growth across all segments, with a focus on capital-light, fee-based revenue [54][55] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.5 billion in new capital in Q4, enhancing its funding base and flexibility for growth opportunities [46] - Tangible book value grew by over $4 billion year-over-year to $8.9 billion, with tangible book value per share increasing by 57% [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you break down the consolidated guidance at the segment level? - Management expects revenue growth of 40% or more for financial services, approximately 23% for lending, and about 20% for the tech platform in 2026 [54] Question: Can you elaborate on the acceleration in KPI growth and its sustainability? - Management noted that unaided brand awareness has increased significantly, and they are confident in reaching higher levels of awareness and product quality to drive growth [58][60] Question: How do you view origination allocation between LPB and other segments? - Management indicated that demand remains robust, and they have flexibility to choose between capital-light fee-based revenue and retaining higher returning assets on the balance sheet [64][66] Question: Can you provide insights on deposit growth and recent downward beta? - Management confirmed that deposit growth is primarily from member deposits, with a consistent downward beta of 60%-70% since launching the bank [70][73] Question: Do you think innovation in fintech could spur more interest from platform customers? - Management expressed optimism that new products like crypto and stablecoin could enhance interest and demand from tech platform customers [75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted net revenue for 2025 reached a record $3.6 billion, up 38% year-over-year [31] - Adjusted EBITDA was also a record at $1.1 billion, up 58% year-over-year, with a margin of 29% [31] - Net income for the year was $481 million, with an earnings per share of $0.39 [31] - In Q4, adjusted net revenue grew 37% year-over-year to $1.013 billion, marking the first billion-dollar quarter [32] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $318 million, with a margin of 31% [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial services generated record revenue of over $1.5 billion in 2025, up 88% from the prior year [33] - Lending segment adjusted net revenue was over $1.8 billion in 2025, up 24% from the prior year [36] - Tech platform revenue for 2025 was over $450 million, with Q4 net revenue of $122 million, up 19% year-over-year [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added a record 1 million new members in Q4, increasing total members by 35% year-over-year to 13.7 million [6] - Total loan originations reached a record of $10.5 billion in Q4, up 46% year-over-year [36] - Fee-based revenue across all segments was a quarterly record at $443 million, up 53% year-over-year [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its differentiated one-stop-shop model to drive growth in existing and new markets, including crypto and AI [4][5] - Plans to enhance product offerings and brand awareness through strategic partnerships and marketing initiatives [12][13] - The company is focused on building a robust business banking offering to fill market gaps [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's prospects, citing a strong balance sheet and significant growth opportunities [12] - The company expects to increase total members by at least 30% year-over-year in 2026, with adjusted net revenue projected at approximately $4.655 billion [49] - Management highlighted the importance of product quality and brand awareness in driving sustainable growth [60] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.5 billion in new capital in Q4, enhancing its funding base and flexibility for growth [45] - Tangible book value grew to $8.9 billion, with a per-share increase of 57% year-over-year [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you break down the consolidated guidance at the segment level? - Management expects financial services revenue growth of 40% or more, lending revenue growth of approximately 23%, and tech platform revenue growth of about 20% in 2026 [54][55] Question: Can you elaborate on the acceleration in KPI growth and its sustainability? - Management noted a significant increase in unaided brand awareness to 9.6%, emphasizing the effectiveness of marketing strategies and partnerships [58][59] Question: How do you view the origination outlook for the Loan Platform Business? - Management indicated robust demand across all asset classes and flexibility in capital allocation between fee-based revenue and higher returning assets [62][64] Question: What is the source of the impressive deposit growth this quarter? - Management attributed deposit growth primarily to member deposits, highlighting a competitive advantage in offering attractive rates and services [67][70]

Market Overview - The Bitcoin market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping to $81,000, leading to a rapid liquidation of over $1.68 billion in leveraged positions in a single day [1][2] - Approximately 267,000 accounts were liquidated, with long positions constituting about 93% of the losses, indicating a concentrated risk across trading venues [2][3] Liquidation Dynamics - The liquidation event was primarily driven by leverage snapping under its own weight rather than panic selling, with Bitcoin absorbing around $780 million of the losses and Ethereum about $414 million [2] - Major exchanges like Hyperliquid, Bybit, and Binance saw significant forced closures, with Hyperliquid leading at approximately $598 million in liquidations [3] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is growing concern that potential new buyers may no longer afford Bitcoin, as some demographics, particularly Gen Alpha, view holding Bitcoin as a status symbol [2] - The total crypto open interest fell sharply alongside the selloff, indicating that leverage was flushed out of the market rather than rotated, with funding rates having been persistently positive before the drop [4] Impact on Related Companies - The crash had immediate repercussions for companies linked to Bitcoin, with firms like MicroStrategy and Bitmine Immersion Technologies seeing stock drops of nearly 10% [5] - MicroStrategy's stock is currently valued lower than its net asset value, which is approximately $73.62 billion, suggesting potential for recovery if the company avoids liquidation [6]

Core Insights - Both Iren and Applied Digital have transitioned from the crypto industry to focus on AI and high-performance computing, each adopting different strategies to capture AI-related business opportunities [2][5] Company Overview: Iren - Iren's stock has increased over 400% in the past year, with a current market cap of $20 billion and a high forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 50 [4] - The company recently secured a $9.7 billion AI cloud contract with Microsoft, leading to a significant improvement in net income from a loss of $51.7 million in Q1 of the previous fiscal year to a gain of $384.6 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026 [4][3] - Iren retains flexibility by operating in both crypto and high-performance computing, allowing it to adapt based on market demand [3] Company Overview: Applied Digital - Applied Digital's stock has surged over 500% in the past year, with a current market cap of $11 billion and a gross margin of 16.40% [6][7] - The company reported a 250% increase in revenue in its latest quarter, benefiting from multibillion-dollar leases with hyperscalers and a backlog of $16 billion [7] - Applied Digital focuses on building high-performance data centers and offering long-term leases, which provides predictable cash flows [5] Investment Considerations - Investors seeking cash flow predictability may find Applied Digital more appealing due to its stable revenue from contracts [8] - Iren offers optionality and upside potential but comes with higher volatility due to the cyclical nature of crypto and uncertainties in the AI compute market [8][9] - Both companies have shown significant returns driven by positive sentiment towards AI infrastructure, but they are not considered low-risk investments [9]

I remember Cathie Wood used to purchase crypto stocks every few days last year. She made sure that her portfolio reallocation always had space for the trending crypto stocks. After all, Wood is a veteran investor in the digital assets space and moved ahead undaunted by criticism. When her asset management firm, ARK Invest, revealed that it was the first public asset manager to gain Bitcoin (BTC) exposure as early as 2015, the move was met with skepticism. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood As the crypto market ...

Group 1: Coinbase Overview - Coinbase's business is experiencing growth, but investment decisions depend on individual beliefs about the future of cryptocurrency [1][2] - The stock has declined over 50% since its peak in late 2025, yet employees at Coinbase express excitement about their work and the company is actively hiring [2] - Despite a challenging year for crypto investors in 2025, trading volumes reached new records, and institutional interest is increasing due to a favorable regulatory environment [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Current interest in Coinbase is low, as indicated by light coverage on TheStreet Pro and low Google Trends activity, suggesting it may be a good time to buy [7] - Technical analysis indicates that shares are heavily oversold, with potential support around 212, but investment in Coinbase is considered high-risk [8] - Analysts suggest that a period of sideways trading could indicate a base for Coinbase, which would be a positive sign for potential investors [9] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Institutional Interest - Coinbase has high margins and a strong balance sheet, with new institutional investors entering the market due to CFTC regulations, which may enhance stability [10] - However, there are concerns about declining growth in free cash flow and rising operating expenses, alongside the risk of focusing on a single asset class [10] - The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 18.5, which is considered reasonable given its growth and return on equity metrics [10] Group 4: Sentiment Indicator - Coinbase may serve as a sentiment indicator for the broader crypto market, with current sentiment being unfavorable for both COIN and Bitcoin [11]

Group 1 - Gold prices have seen significant gains, briefly testing $5,600 per ounce before settling around $5,500, marking an increase of over 3% in a single session [2] - Silver has also surged past $119 an ounce, outperforming gold in both momentum and narrative [2] - The current market dynamics indicate a shift from traditional inflation hedging to a focus on confidence and liquidity, as investors seek solid assets [2] Group 2 - The gold market is experiencing classic melt-up behavior, with overbought conditions being less impactful due to overwhelming capital flows [4] - The 14-day RSI for gold is above 90, indicating extreme overbought conditions, yet prices remain above major moving averages [3] - The weakening US dollar, down nearly 11% year over year, is a significant driver of gold's price increase, overshadowing factors like mine supply and jewelry demand [7]

Better late than never. UBS will reportedly allow certain clients to trade bitcoin and Ether in the near future, although the banking behemoth is still determining how the program will be rolled out, according to a Bloomberg report last week. The Zurich-based firm would join the likes of JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, which have both opened up access to crypto for clients in recent years. The move also signals the bank’s willingness to continue building on its tokenization programs. “We have seen that mor ...