今日，国务院关税税则委员会公布公告称， 4月10日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"的 税率进一步提高至125% ，美方对华肆意加征畸高关税，严重违反国际经贸规则。国务院关税税则委员 会调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施，由84%提高至125%。在此背景下，农机产业需求释放 的预期增强。 东吴证券分析师周尔双介绍， 2024年我国从美国进口的主要商品中，农副产品金额占比达到16.3%， 仅次于机械电子类产品 。周尔双判断，关税提升之后我国从美国进口农产品总量预计有所下降，有望 对国内粮食价格形成上涨支撑，利好农机行业需求。 事实上，自2024年下半年以来，我国粮食进口已经逐渐放缓，小麦、玉米等进口大幅下降，且在2025 年一季度粮食进口有望延续下降趋势。 对于粮价向农机需求的传导，中联重科(000157)近期接待调研时表示，2025年粮食价格有望回升，随 着粮食价格上涨，预计后续用户购机意愿会有所提升，但受制于农户2024年收益大幅降低或亏损，今 年的采购不会出现增长或下滑，随着粮食价格的增长和2025年的用户收益增加，有望看到2026年农业 机械市场景气度转好。 进口替代则是农机行业另一大趋势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of increased tariffs on agricultural machinery and the expected growth in demand for domestic agricultural machinery in China due to reduced imports from the U.S. and rising grain prices [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Agricultural Machinery Demand - The U.S. has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, prompting China to respond with similar tariffs on U.S. goods, which is expected to decrease imports of agricultural products from the U.S. and support domestic grain prices [1]. - Analysts predict that the total volume of agricultural imports from the U.S. will decline, which may lead to an increase in domestic grain prices, positively affecting the demand for agricultural machinery [1][2]. - Since the second half of 2024, China's grain imports have already begun to slow down, with significant decreases in imports of wheat and corn expected to continue into early 2025 [1]. Group 2: Trends in Agricultural Machinery Industry - The agricultural machinery industry is experiencing a trend of import substitution, with 52 types of agricultural machinery imported from the U.S. in 2024 totaling 490,000 units and $1.46 million, indicating a significant reliance on domestic production [2]. - China's agricultural mechanization rate is approximately 55%, which is significantly lower than that of the U.S. and Europe, suggesting substantial room for growth in mechanization to ensure food security [2]. - The industry is transitioning from quantity expansion to improvements in technology and quality, with companies focusing on enhancing their production capabilities and targeting specialized machinery for diverse agricultural needs [2][3]. Group 3: Government Support and Company Strategies - The State Council emphasizes the importance of agricultural machinery in ensuring national food security and encourages the development of key technologies and products [3]. - Companies like Zoomlion and YTO are investing in R&D to advance agricultural machinery towards high-end, green, and intelligent solutions, with a focus on expanding their market presence both domestically and internationally [4]. - The global agricultural machinery market is valued at approximately $1 trillion, with the domestic market around $200 billion, indicating significant growth potential for companies like Zoomlion, which expects a 122.29% increase in agricultural machinery revenue in 2024 [4].