Group 1 - Laughing Water Capital reported a fourth-quarter return of approximately 6.8%, with full-year returns at around 3.9% net of fees and expenses, outperforming the SP500TR and R2000 indexes in the previous year [1] - The cumulative returns since inception for Laughing Water Capital are about 400%, compared to approximately 332% for the SP500TR and 175% for the R2000 [1] - The portfolio is positioned to deliver strong long-term results despite recent underperformance in the current year [1] Group 2 - Lifecore Biomedical, Inc. (NASDAQ:LFCR) is highlighted as a key stock, with a market capitalization of $303.477 million and a one-month return of 0.75%, while its shares gained 25% over the last 52 weeks [2] - Lifecore Biomedical appreciated approximately 10% over the year, with a focus on increasing capacity utilization, which is crucial for earnings power improvement [3] - The company expects to fill its capacity with projected new business of approximately $11 million in the mid-term and $34 million in the long-term, representing about 11% of total capacity [3]

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth was reported at +4.3%, significantly exceeding the +3.2% expected by analysts, marking the strongest growth in two years and an increase from Q2's +3.8% [2] - Core GDP for Q3 reached +2.9%, 30 basis points above expectations and the highest since Q1's +3.3% [3] Consumer and Business Sentiment - December Consumer Confidence is expected to improve to 91.7 from 88.7 in the previous month, indicating a positive outlook among consumers [6] Durable Goods Orders - Durable Goods Orders for October fell to -2.2%, below the consensus estimate of -1.1%, marking the fourth negative print of 2025 [4] - Excluding volatile Transportation costs, Durable Goods Orders showed a slight increase of +0.2% in October, the weakest performance since April [5] Market Implications - The strong GDP growth suggests a lower likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, particularly at the upcoming January FOMC meeting, where the chance of a cut was previously at +24% [5]

Group 1 - Industrial production for November increased by 0.2%, exceeding expectations of a 0.1% rise, marking the best performance since June of this year [1] - Capacity utilization reached 76.0%, the highest level since July of this year, indicating improvement in manufacturing despite not operating at full capacity [2] - Interest rates have been rising following stronger-than-expected GDP growth and price index data, with the 10-year Treasury yield up by 2 basis points and the 2-year yield up by 3 basis points [2] Group 2 - The dollar is approaching a critical level, with a potential close under 98.14, which would be the lowest in two and a half months, indicating a possible weakening trend [3]

Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization - Industrial production increased by 02% in November, surpassing expectations of 01%, marking the best performance since June [1] - Capacity utilization reached 760% in November, exceeding the expected 759%, achieving the highest level since July [2] - These figures indicate an improvement in industrial activity, despite manufacturing not operating at full capacity [2] Interest Rates & Treasury Market - Interest rates have been rising following a higher-than-expected price index on GDP and stronger GDP growth [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield is up by two basis points to 419% [2] - The 2-year Treasury yield is up by three basis points to 454% [2] - There is a slight flattening bias observed in the Treasury complex [3] Currency Market - If the US dollar closes below 9814, it will be the lowest close in two and a half months [3]

Company Performance - United Airlines reported Q2 earnings, missing both revenue and earnings estimates, with earnings of $2.97 per share compared to the expected $3.86 and the previous year's $4.14 [3] - Revenues for United Airlines were $15.2 billion, falling short of the anticipated $15.36 billion [3] - Despite the earnings miss, United Airlines saw increases in cabin revenues (+5.6%) and cargo revenues (+3.8%), along with an 8.7% growth in its loyalty program [4] Market Overview - The Dow closed up +231 points (+0.53%), the S&P 500 increased by +19 points (+0.32%), and the Nasdaq rose by +52 points (+0.25%) [2] - The small-cap Russell 2000 gained +21 points (+0.99%) during the session [2] - Bond yields showed mixed movements, with the 10-year yield rising to +4.45% and the 2-year yield decreasing to +3.89% [2] Economic Indicators - Industrial Production for June matched the previous month's revised figure, showing a +0.7% increase for the seventh consecutive month, with manufacturing up +0.8% and mining up +1.6% [5] - Capacity Utilization was reported at 77.6%, exceeding the expected 77.4% and the previous month's revised 77.5% [6]

Industrial Production - Industrial production increased by 03% in June, surpassing expectations of 01% [1] - Previous industrial production figure was revised from -021% to unchanged [1] - June's industrial production number is the second best of the year, only surpassed by February's 14% increase [1] Capacity Utilization - Capacity utilization rate is 776%, exceeding expectations and following an upward revision to 774% [2] - 775% would represent the highest utilization rate since April, indicating stabilization [2] - The data suggests a stabilization in utilization rates and firming industrial production numbers, which is a positive indicator for manufacturing [2] Interest Rates - Interest rates are hovering around 445% to 446% on a tenure, a decrease of a couple of basis points after yesterday's close [3] - Yesterday's close represented a one and a half month high yield close [3]

Core Insights - Bank of America Securities analyst Ken Hoexter reiterated a Buy rating on FedEx Corporation, lowering the price forecast from $272 to $270 [1] - FedEx is making steady progress on structural cost initiatives, including Network 2.0, DRIVE, and Tri-Color, despite facing headwinds in international B2B volumes in F4Q25 [1] Financial Performance - Estimated EPS for 4Q25, FY25, and FY26 has been lowered by 9%, 3%, and 1% respectively, now projecting $5.55, $17.70, and $20.75, down from previous expectations of $6.10, $18.25, and $20.90 [4] - The price target now sits near the low end of the 12.5x–18.5x range due to macroeconomic pressures [5] Market Dynamics - Following a 90-day U.S.-China tariff reprieve, FedEx estimates the de minimis tariff on Chinese retailers has decreased to approximately 50% from 168%, although reporting complexity has increased [3] - FedEx has partnered with Amazon to handle select large and heavy parcels, providing a cost advantage over UPS, which is expected to be financially beneficial for FedEx [3][4] Volume Trends - March volumes were stable, but April saw a decline, and May experienced sharp Trans-Pacific declines as customers relied on existing inventories and awaited tariff relief [2]