Core Viewpoint - LN's retail sell-through in 2Q25 increased by only 1% YoY, which is weaker than expectations and reflects a challenging competitive landscape for sportswear brands in 1H25 [1][2]. Retail Performance - Overall retail sell-through of LN was up only 1% YoY in 2Q25, with offline retail experiencing a mid-single-digit decline due to sluggish client traffic and a 18% year-to-date decrease in points of sale [2]. - E-commerce performance was also below expectations, with only a mid-single-digit increase YoY, indicating a quarter-over-quarter deterioration [2]. - Retail discounts have steepened as LN attempts to maintain a healthier inventory balance, which stood at 4 months of sales by the end of 2Q [2]. Management Insights - Management noted that sluggish performance continued into 3Q QTD, with weakness persisting after the "618" sales campaign, indicating increased competition among sportswear brands [3]. - It is believed that maintaining the gross profit margin (GPM) at the 2024 level of 49.4% will be challenging due to ongoing pressures [3]. Product-Specific Challenges - Sales of LN's basketball products have declined by over 20% YoY, which is significant as basketball accounted for 21% of retail sales in 2024 [4]. - Although the endorsement of Yang Hansen, a newly drafted Chinese NBA player, could support LN's sales, the overall impact is expected to be limited due to other brands gaining market share through stronger endorsements [4]. Earnings Guidance and Valuation - There is a risk of downward revision in guidance, particularly if LN increases its marketing efforts in 4Q25 in conjunction with its partnership with the Chinese Olympics Committee [5]. - FY25-27E EPS estimates have been lowered by 5-7% due to anticipated weaker GPM and operating deleverage, with the target price adjusted to HK$15.7 based on a 13x adjusted 2025E EPS [6]. Overall Outlook - LN is seen as vulnerable to higher risks of earnings weakness in 2025 and likely into 1H26, although the current valuation is considered fair at low-teens forward P/E and ROE [7]. - The recommendation remains HOLD due to a lack of near-term earnings catalysts [1][7].