AGNC Investment (AGNC) Q2 2025 Earnings Call July 22, 2025 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsPeter Federico - Director, President, CEO & Chief Investment OfficerBernice Bell - EVP & CFOCrispin Love - DirectorTrevor Cranston - MD - Mortgage Finance Equity ResearchBose George - Managing DirectorJason Weaver - MD - Head Specialty Finance & Real Estate ResearchJason Stewart - Director - Mortgage FinanceEric Hagen - Managing DirectorConference Call ParticipantsKatherine Turlington - IR AnalystDouglas Harter - Equi ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AGNC reported a comprehensive loss of $0.13 per common share for Q2 2025, with an economic return on tangible common equity of negative 1% [14] - The tangible net book value per share declined by $0.44, while dividends declared per common share were $0.36 [14] - As of the end of July, the tangible net book value per common share increased by about 1% after accounting for monthly dividend accrual [14] - Quarter-end leverage increased slightly to 7.6x tangible equity from 7.5x at the end of Q1, with average leverage rising to 7.5x from 7.3x in the prior quarter [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The asset portfolio totaled $82 billion at quarter-end, up approximately $3.5 billion from the prior quarter, with a focus on higher coupon specified pools [19] - The weighted average coupon of the asset portfolio increased to 5.13% during the quarter [19] - The net spread and dollar roll income declined to $0.38 per common share, primarily due to the timing of capital deployment and higher swap costs [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) underperformed relative to benchmark interest rates, with spreads to treasury and swap rates widening [5][7] - The current coupon spread to a blend of treasury and swap benchmarks ended the quarter wider by 7 and 14 basis points, respectively [7] - The expected net supply of new MBS for the year is about $200 billion, at the low end of most forecasts [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AGNC's strategy focuses on maintaining sufficient liquidity to navigate financial market volatility and taking advantage of wider MBS spreads [6][9] - The company aims to deploy capital opportunistically in attractively priced assets while managing leverage [26][27] - The favorable outlook for agency MBS is supported by anticipated regulatory changes and a commitment from key policymakers to maintain implicit guarantees for agency MBS [9][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the financial market stress in April led to a reassessment of macroeconomic and monetary policy outlooks, but most markets recovered by the end of the quarter [4][6] - The company expects bank and foreign demand for agency MBS to grow, with improved seasonal supply patterns for MBS issuance anticipated in Q3 [8][9] - Management expressed confidence in the stability of the mortgage market and the potential for tighter mortgage spreads over time due to supportive government policies [12][21] Other Important Information - The liquidity position totaled $6.4 billion in cash and unencumbered agency MBS, representing 65% of tangible equity, an increase from 63% in the prior quarter [15] - The average projected life CPR of the portfolio declined to 7.8% from 8.3% in Q1, while actual CPRs averaged 8.7% for the quarter, up from 7% in the prior quarter [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the attractive environment and capital raising - Management indicated a favorable outlook for agency MBS and the potential for raising additional capital or increasing leverage as opportunities arise [23][26][27] Question: Core earnings trajectory and dividend levels - Management discussed the alignment of net spread and dollar roll income with portfolio economics, suggesting a return on equity in the high teens range [32][36] Question: Capital deployment status and opportunities - Management confirmed that approximately $1 billion worth of mortgages were purchased recently, with a focus on higher coupon specified pools [43][44] Question: Optimal size of the company and capital issuance - Management emphasized growth driven by accretive capital raising, highlighting the benefits of scale and liquidity for shareholders [50][53] Question: Balance between swap hedges and treasury futures - Management noted a preference for a balanced mix of swaps and treasuries, with a current overweight in swaps due to market conditions [58][60] Question: Impact of government budget deficit on the repo market - Management expressed confidence that treasury issuance would not materially impact the repo market, citing ample liquidity [90][92] Question: Changes in credit scoring and prepayment environment - Management acknowledged potential impacts from changes in credit scoring but deemed them not significantly impactful from an investor perspective [100][104] Question: Risks associated with prepayment protection - Management recognized the risk of increased prepayment speeds due to market efficiency but noted that significant rate drops would be necessary for widespread refinancing [106][112]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR's Q1 GAAP net income available to common stockholders was $24.3 million or $0.32 per common share, with net interest income at $36.3 million and distributable earnings at $64.6 million or $0.86 per common share [4] - The quarter-end book value was $18.59 per common share, with the most current estimate as of April 23 being $16.56 per common share after the accrual of April dividends [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio experienced a modest two basis points of tightening in Q1, while agency assets widened approximately 15 basis points in ZV spreads quarter to date [11] - Portfolio MBS prepayment rates averaged 6.1% CPR in Q1 and are trending at around 7.8% CPR so far in Q2, with expectations of a muted prepayment environment due to elevated mortgage rates [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The rates market is pricing in over three Fed rate cuts this year, reflecting a dovish reaction to support a weakening economy, which is positive for MBS [9] - The mortgage and housing market constitutes approximately 28% to 30% of the economy, indicating the significance of any reform efforts in this sector [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ARMOUR is focused on maintaining strong liquidity of over $750 million to withstand short-term volatility and is looking for value in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [7] - The company aims to pay an attractive and stable dividend over the medium term, with a current monthly dividend of $0.24 per common share [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted pronounced macroeconomic uncertainty due to policy changes and upward pressure on interest rates, but remains optimistic about the compelling ROEs on production and premium coupon MBS [7] - The company is closely monitoring developments in GSE reform, viewing structural changes as a long-term process with potential implications for economic stability and growth [8] Other Important Information - ARMOUR raised approximately $371 million of capital by issuing around 20 million shares of common stock and $300,000 by issuing approximately 17,000 shares of preferred C shares [4] - The company has repurchased 666,000 common shares since March 31, indicating a strategy to manage share count amid market conditions [5] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is ARMOUR approaching risk management in the current environment? - Management emphasized the importance of liquidity and maintaining a leverage level of 7% to 8%, while balancing attractive investment opportunities with the need for defensiveness [17][19] Question: What are the best opportunities within the coupon stack? - The company is biased towards production coupons, particularly in the 5.5% range, and is considering five-year DOS securities for diversification [24][25] Question: What should observers look for regarding GSE reform? - Key aspects to watch include the sovereign backstop and adjustments to risk fees, which could impact risk weights and the competitive landscape in the mortgage market [34][35] Question: How does the decline in book value affect dividend sustainability? - A decline in book value could impact capital available for investment, but management remains comfortable with the current dividend level based on medium-term returns [50] Question: What is the current appetite for mortgage-backed securities among banks? - There has been a return of bank demand for agency MBS, particularly in floating rate aspects, although some investors remain on the sidelines due to market volatility [51][53]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value at the end of Q4 was reported at $12.70 per share, with an economic return of 1% for the quarter and 7.4% for the year [13] - The common equity capital grew to over $1,000,000,000, reflecting a year-over-year growth of over 40% [10] - The leverage increased from 7.6% to 7.9% during Q4 as new pools and TBAs were added [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Interest income increased due to the addition of higher-yielding assets, while older lower-yielding assets continued to pay down [14] - The company raised $64,000,000 in new capital during Q4, maintaining ample liquidity to deploy into higher yield markets [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The investment environment remains favorable, with mortgage spreads in the range of 130 to 140 basis points over 7-year treasuries and 175 to 185 over swaps [26] - The company noted that bond fund flows have been positive at higher yields, which could accelerate given the sizable holdings in money market funds [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on delivering value at the intersection of capital markets and housing finance, with a strong emphasis on agency-backed single-family residential MBS [5] - The management team is committed to proactive engagement with policymakers to navigate the evolving policy environment [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver dividends driven by current and future returns, emphasizing the importance of scale and disciplined capital deployment [33] - The macroeconomic landscape is evolving, with expectations of a wider distribution of rates and potential volatility due to government policy changes [23] Other Important Information - The company has generated the leading total shareholder return among agency-focused mortgage REITs over 1, 3, and 5 years, even during challenging market conditions [11] - The management team has been actively engaged with Washington to monitor developments related to GSE reform and its implications for housing finance [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you walk through the drivers of the shift from treasury futures to swaps this quarter and any impact that has on spreads? - The shift was driven by swap spreads reaching levels that compensate for potential fiscal issuance, with an expected addition of 200 to 300 basis points of marginal ROE from this change [37][38] Question: Can we get an update on book value quarter to date, any big changes? - The book value has remained essentially flat since the end of the quarter [39] Question: Can you talk about your strategy for continuing to grow the capital base in 2025? - The strategy is predicated on the investment environment, focusing on accretive capital deployment when ROEs exceed long-term dividend levels [43] Question: How do you think the MBS market is currently pricing in the potential for GSE reform? - The MBS market appears to be pricing in a small percentage risk of meaningful changes, with spreads currently reflecting a low probability of significant shifts [46] Question: If we see swap spreads stay around current levels, would you expect that shift to continue to move more into swaps? - The hedge portfolio is currently positioned as desired given the market environment, with no immediate plans for further shifts [53] Question: How do you still price in the risk to spreads related to short-term rallies and rates? - The company is preparing for segments of the market that are less refinanceable, focusing on security selection to mitigate risks [67] Question: With the new FHFA Director, where do you see the origination footprint of the GSEs moving? - It is difficult to predict, but a smaller footprint and increased private label issuance are logical expectations based on ideological biases [72]