After years of suffering from a tumultuous interest rate environment, macro forces have finally aligned in favor of agency mortgage REITs. Dynex Capital (DX) and AGNC Investment (AGNC) each reported huge gains in 2025 with massive comprehensive income and book value growth. Additional macro developments, which we will detail later, portend a similarly strong 2026. Despite this strength, I would caution investors that the sharp gains are one-time in nature and that both AGNC and DX are slightly overvalued ev ...

Dynex Capital, Inc. (NYSE:DX) is included among 10 Best Monthly Dividend Stocks to Buy Now. BTIG Flags Mortgage Policy Tailwind for Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) robert cicchetti / Shutterstock.com On January 9, BTIG named Dynex Capital, Inc. (NYSE:DX) as its top pick to quickly benefit from President Trump’s directive for government-sponsored enterprises to buy up to $200B in mortgage-backed securities, a move aimed at bringing mortgage rates down. BTIG said tighter agency MBS spreads could lift Dynex’s mar ...

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Core Insights - Samsung Electronics reported a record fourth-quarter profit, exceeding analysts' expectations, driven by a memory chip shortage and strong demand for AI servers [1][2] Financial Performance - Quarterly revenue increased by approximately 24% year-over-year, reaching a new record of 93.8 trillion Korean won ($65.58 billion), surpassing the expected 93.318 trillion won [6] - Operating profit surged over 200% year-over-year, amounting to 20.1 trillion won, slightly above the expected 20.018 trillion won [6] Memory Business Impact - The memory segment significantly contributed to earnings, achieving all-time highs in quarterly revenue and operating profit, fueled by a market price surge and sales of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) [3] - HBM, essential for AI data center chipsets, has seen increased focus from Samsung over the past year, aligning with rising demand from AI chipset manufacturers like Nvidia [3][4] Market Dynamics - The demand for HBM has outstripped supply, leading to a broader market shortage and increased prices for chips used in personal computers and mobile devices [4] - Memory companies, including Samsung and its competitor SK Hynix, are prioritizing capacity to meet this lucrative demand, resulting in record earnings for both firms [4]

Anyone who has followed us knows that we cover the mREIT sector. While mortgage REITs carry relatively high risk, we also cover the preferred shares in the sector. Preferred shares offer investors a great way to buy into the sector at materially less risk. One of the perks of preferred shares in this space is that they have a relatively high dividend yield. Dynex Capital (DX) Preferred Share We find that DX-C (DX.PR.C) offers a fairly appealing dividend rate. The REIT Forum The stripped yield is currently 9 ...

Reports Q4 book value per share $13.45. “2025 was a strong year for Dynex. We delivered a 29.4% total shareholder return and a 67% decade-long total return, driven by disciplined execution and rigorous risk management. Our market capitalization nearly tripled over the last 13 months as we raised and deployed capital into attractive opportunities, while strengthening our organization with refreshed leadership, a new independent auditor, and an expanded office footprint. Our strategy remains accretive to lon ...

Core Viewpoint - Dynex Capital, Inc. has seen an increase in its consensus price target from $14.95 to $18, indicating growing optimism among analysts regarding the company's future performance, although some analysts maintain a more cautious outlook [2][6]. Company Overview - Dynex Capital, Inc. is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States, with a portfolio that includes both agency and non-agency MBS, as well as CMBS interest-only securities [1]. Financial Performance - The company's financial performance, particularly its earnings reports, significantly influences analysts' price targets, with positive earnings surprises potentially leading to upward revisions [3][6]. - Dynex Capital's performance is sensitive to changes in interest rates, which can impact its net interest margin, prompting analysts to adjust price targets based on interest rate expectations [3]. Market Influences - The broader real estate and mortgage markets, including changes in housing demand, mortgage rates, and government policies related to housing finance, can affect Dynex Capital's outlook [4]. - As a REIT, Dynex Capital is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders, making its dividend policy and yield important factors for analysts when setting price targets [4]. Comparative Analysis - In comparison to Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Dynex Capital is noted for its volatility and risk profile, emphasizing the importance of considering risk factors when evaluating the company's stock [5].

Dynex Capital (NYSE:DX) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 26, 2026 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAlison Griffin - VP of Investor RelationsBose George - Managing DirectorByron L. Boston - Chairman and Co-CEOEric Hagen - Managing DirectorJason Weaver - Managing DirectorMike Sartori - Head of Capital MarketsRob Colligan - CFOSmriti L. Popenoe - Co-CEO and PresidentT.J. Connelly - CIOTrevor Cranston - Managing DirectorConference Call ParticipantsDoug Harter - AnalystJason Stewart - AnalystOperatorGood day, and we ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total economic return for the fourth quarter was 10.2%, consisting of $0.51 of common dividends and a $0.78 increase in book value per share [25] - For the year, the book value increased by $0.75, and $2 of dividends per common share were declared, paid monthly [25] - Comprehensive income for the quarter was $190 million and $354 million for the year [25] - The company ended the quarter with leverage of 7.3x total equity and a strong liquidity position of $1.4 billion in cash and unencumbered securities, representing over 55% of total equity [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The TBA and mortgage-backed securities portfolio started the year at $9.8 billion, grew to $15.8 billion at the end of September, and ended the year at $19.4 billion [27] - The current book value is estimated to be in the range of $13.85-$14.05 per share, up 3%-4% from year-end [28] - The company raised $1.5 billion over the last 13 months at the most accretive levels in its history [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a 29.4% total shareholder return in 2025, driven by both dividend income and significant share price performance [8] - The total equity market capitalization, including preferred shares, was $3 billion as of the end of last week [8] - The company raised and invested over $1 billion in 2025, with a price-to-book valuation rising [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to create a resilient business at the intersection of capital markets and real estate finance, focusing on disciplined execution and long-term value creation [7][30] - The management emphasizes the importance of adapting to changing environments and maintaining a performance-first mentality [4][6] - The company is evolving its business steadily, fine-tuning people, processes, technology, and structure to align with its strategy [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the impact of government policy on asset returns, indicating that it is one of the most powerful forces shaping the market [14] - The company is prepared for a wider range of outcomes and has tilted its risk appetite towards liquidity and flexibility [10] - The management expressed confidence in the mortgage market's stability and the potential for attractive returns due to rising global demand for income [11][20] Other Important Information - The company has added depth and breadth to its team, including a new Chief Operating Officer and expanded corporate development capabilities [9] - The management noted that the current environment is characterized by policy complexity, shifting rate expectations, and geopolitical crosscurrents [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you quantify where you see incremental investment returns today? - Management indicated that hedged ROEs are in the mid-teens with leverage around 7x, and with targeted leverage in the low 8s, ROEs could reach mid- to high teens [33] Question: How does this compare to three months ago given the spread tightening? - The dynamic is roughly between 150 and 300 basis points tighter than at the end of the last quarter [35] Question: Can you discuss the probability of politically motivated actions to improve housing affordability? - Management acknowledged the historical role of GSEs in managing housing and indicated that government intervention is possible [48][49] Question: What are the current opportunities for capital deployment? - Management noted that the belly of the coupon stack, primarily fives, has been the most interesting, with opportunities across the coupon stack [55] Question: How do you see the GSEs' longer-term role in the market? - Management believes that the $200 billion cap could be extended and that GSEs will continue to play a significant role in the market [73]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total economic return for Q4 2025 was 10.2%, with a common dividend of $0.51 and a book value increase of $0.78 per share [23] - For the full year 2025, the book value increased by $0.75, and total comprehensive income was $354 million [23][24] - The company ended the quarter with leverage of 7.3x total equity and maintained a strong liquidity position with $1.4 billion in cash and unencumbered securities [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The TBA and mortgage-backed securities portfolio grew from $9.8 billion at the beginning of the year to $19.4 billion by year-end, with current holdings at approximately $22 billion [24] - The company raised and invested over $1 billion in 2025, benefiting from spread tightening in the second half of the year [15][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that MBS spreads have tightened significantly, with current spreads being 150 to 300 basis points tighter than at the end of the previous quarter [33] - The return environment is expected to improve due to policy support for housing finance and higher liquidity [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a performance-first mentality and ethical stewardship of shareholders' capital, focusing on risk management and adaptability [4][5] - The management team is committed to evolving the business steadily, fine-tuning processes and technology to align with strategic goals [12] - The company aims to leverage rising global demand for income and the expansion of passive investing to strengthen its shareholder base and lower its cost of capital [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of government policy in shaping asset returns and indicated a more stable and supportive framework for the mortgage market [13][14] - The company is prepared for a wider range of outcomes in a rapidly changing global landscape, with a focus on liquidity and flexibility [10][12] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to generate reliable dividends backed by a resilient portfolio [11] Other Important Information - The company has made significant investments in its team and infrastructure, including the appointment of a new Chief Operating Officer [9] - General and administrative expenses as a percentage of capital decreased from 2.9% to 2.1% year-over-year, reflecting operational efficiency [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you quantify where you see incremental investment returns today? - Management indicated that hedged ROEs are in the mid-teens with leverage around 7x, and with targeted leverage in the low 8s, ROEs could reach mid- to high teens [31] Question: How does the current spread tightening compare to previous quarters? - The dynamic is that spreads are now between 150 and 300 basis points tighter than at the end of the previous quarter [33] Question: What is the probability of politically motivated actions to improve housing affordability? - Management acknowledged the historical role of GSEs in managing housing and indicated that government intervention is possible and anticipated [44] Question: Where has the capital raised in January been deployed? - The company is finding opportunities primarily in the belly of the coupon stack, particularly in fives and five and a halves [50] Question: What is the appropriate size of the portfolio given current opportunities? - Management believes there are significant opportunities to generate alpha and that the portfolio can grow while still maintaining strong performance [60]