令人费解的是，即使在城市中穿行，我们时常能看到一栋栋新建住宅拔地而起，但许多小区却显得空荡 荡的，夜晚更是漆黑一片，亮灯的房屋寥寥无几。一边是大量房屋空置，无人问津，一边却是房价依旧 坚挺，开发商们依然热火朝天地建设和销售，这究竟是为何？ 若以简单的经济规律来解释，似乎难以令人信服。通常情况下，任何商品一旦供大于求，自然会降价促 销，以求尽快售出并减少生产。然而，在房地产市场，这个逻辑却似乎失效了。 当然， "买涨不买跌" 的消费心理在一定程度上影响了市场。但是，当房屋已经空置，购房者又怎会继 续盲目跟风，无谓地投入资金呢？更深层的原因在于，许多人购买房产并非为了实际居住，而是将其视 为一种投资工具。即使房屋空置，也能带来潜在的收益，正是这种预期刺激着人们不断购入房产。 幸运的是，国家早已洞察到这一问题，并及时提出了"房住不炒"的政策方针。即使在疫情的冲击下，这 一政策依然坚定不移地执行，并取得了显著成效。房价上涨的势头得到了有效遏制，开发商也因资金压 力而放缓了拿地和建设的步伐。那些囤积大量空置房，期待房价上涨的投资者，如今也面临着房屋难以 出售的困境，购房热情自然大打折扣。当投机者停止购入，开发商放慢建设 ...

A new California law making it easier for developers to build multistory apartment buildings near major commuter stops has triggered fierce opposition from Los Angeles and other coastal cities https://t.co/iI573NsbxS ...

Hong Kong’s lawmakers have passed a bill to phase out substandard tiny residential units, as the government moves to address Beijing’s call to improve the city’s living conditions https://t.co/HmwifvkiSU ...

海南省住房和城乡建设厅发布进一步优化调整有关调控政策的通知，其中提到，结合本地区实际需求，稳妥有序推进收购存量商品房用作保障性住房、城中村和危旧房改造安置房。收购存量商品房用作保障性租赁住房的，可适当放宽收购面积标准。对商品住房去化期高的市县，鼓励优先采用“以购代建”方式安置。 ...

Housing Policy - Beijing residents and non-Beijing residents with 2+ years of continuous social insurance or individual income tax payment in Beijing can purchase unlimited units of commercial housing outside the 5th Ring Road [1]

Core Insights - The current real estate cycle shows significant price drops, particularly in older residential properties, which are less appealing to younger families due to their age and lack of modern amenities [2][4][5] - There is a notable increase in the sales of older, smaller units in major cities, with a high percentage of transactions involving these types of properties [4][5] - The government has indicated a focus on stabilizing the real estate market, but experts predict a continued "price drop wave" in the coming years due to various signals [6] Signal 1: High Inventory Levels - The inventory of unsold residential properties remains high, with new housing stock expected to increase from 670 million square meters in 2023 to 798 million square meters by March 2024, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities where the inventory turnover period exceeds 36 months [7] Signal 2: Demographic Trends - The aging population in China has surpassed 300 million, accounting for 22% of the total population, leading to a significant reduction in housing demand as family structures change [8][9] - The declining birth rate, with a projected 15% decrease in newborns in 2024 compared to previous years, further diminishes future housing demand [9] Signal 3: Policy Direction - The government is committed to controlling housing prices and promoting rental housing, with plans to build 36,000 affordable rental units and renovate 2.7 million old residential units by 2025 [12][13] - The introduction of property taxes is expected to increase holding costs for investors, leading to a surge in listings and forcing developers to lower prices to attract genuine buyers [14][15] Investment Opportunities - Despite the overall market downturn, three types of properties are expected to appreciate: prime locations in core cities, high-quality upgraded housing, and rental-oriented affordable housing [15][16][17] - Properties in core urban areas, such as new developments near transportation hubs, continue to see demand despite high prices, indicating a preference for quality over quantity [15] - The government's push for high-standard housing is leading to price increases in compliant developments, while non-compliant properties are experiencing declines [16] - Rental properties, particularly those converted from existing stock, are showing stable returns, making them attractive to investors [17] Market Outlook - The current price declines present opportunities for first-time homebuyers to select properties more freely, while investors must be cautious to avoid potential losses in a changing market [19]

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically the performance of major developers in February 2025, as tracked by **CRIC** [1][2]. Key Points Sales Performance - **Contracted sales** of 30 major developers dropped **16% year-on-year (y-y)** in February 2025, following a low base [1]. - The **top 50 and top 100 developers** saw attributable sales growth of **3% and 2% y-y**, respectively, compared to declines of **-4% and -1% in January** [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) sales decline for the top developers narrowed to **-1% and 0% y-y** in the first two months of 2025, contrasting with **+5% and +2% in Q4 2024** [2]. Divergence in Performance - **State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)** outperformed others, with notable growth from **Yuexiu (+63%)**, **COLI (+55%)**, **CR Land (+47%)**, and **C&D (+36%)** y-y [3]. - Conversely, some developers like **Zhongliang**, **Zhongnan**, and **Seazen** experienced declines exceeding **50% y-y** [3]. - Semi-SOE developers such as **Gemdale** and **Vanke** also reported weak performance, with declines of **-45% and -27% y-y**, respectively [3]. Future Outlook - Sales for major developers are expected to weaken y-y in the coming months due to reduced saleable resources and a higher base [4]. - The housing policy response is anticipated to remain reactive, with limited demand-side stimulus until housing prices stabilize [4]. - There is a need for faster policy implementation, particularly regarding funding and inventory buybacks, to bolster homebuyer confidence [4]. Investment Recommendations - The industry performance may hinge on sustained sales and home price recovery, with mixed signals observed in the physical market [5]. - The recommendation is to focus on **defensive SOE players** with substantial saleable resources in tier 1 cities, such as **CR Land (1109.HK)**, **Greentown (3900.HK)**, and **Yuexiu (0123.HK)** [5]. Additional Insights - The **fragility of residential sentiment** is highlighted, as reflected in declining secondary listing prices [5]. - The **aggregate sales** for the top developers showed a **-1% y-y** change, with a **-5% month-on-month (m-m)** decline in February 2025 [9]. Conclusion - The China Property market is facing challenges with declining sales and a reactive policy environment. However, SOEs are showing resilience, and strategic investments in top-tier developers may present opportunities amidst the volatility.