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X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-08-15 03:14
海南省住房和城乡建设厅发布进一步优化调整有关调控政策的通知,其中提到,结合本地区实际需求,稳妥有序推进收购存量商品房用作保障性住房、城中村和危旧房改造安置房。收购存量商品房用作保障性租赁住房的,可适当放宽收购面积标准。对商品住房去化期高的市县,鼓励优先采用“以购代建”方式安置。 ...
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-08-08 12:00
北京:京籍居民家庭、在北京市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满2年及以上的非京籍居民家庭,购买五环外商品住房不限套数。 ...
楼市释放3大信号,专家预测,今明两年“降价潮”或继续?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 23:51
其实这一轮楼市周期中,降价最厉害的非那些老破小莫属了,毕竟房龄长,小区内部也比较陈旧,再加上老小区没有电梯出行,每天只能爬楼,如果家里 有老人孩子的话,上下楼很不方便。 尤其是有孩子的家庭,每次下楼带孩子出去玩,都必须两个大人一起,一个抱孩子,一个扛推车,而且孩子去到楼下玩,还得小心谨慎,因为小区里来来 往往的汽车很不安全,毕竟人车不分流。 这样一来,年轻人就更看不上这样的小区了,进而导致老小区的房价一跌再跌,很多都跌出了性价比。 比如买一套十几万的小房子,出租一个月收益1000块,这样的回报率吸引了不少投资者收购老破小。 从去年10月份开始,大城市老破小销量就出现了持续上升,北京90平米以下的二手房成交占比高达66.3%,而且多数成交都是老小区小户型住宅。 上海总价300万以内的二手房成交占比60%,包括广州市中心60平米以下的老破小户型销量都在持续上涨。 再加上今年上层已经多次重磅会议确定了未来的楼市主基调——回稳止跌!但有专家却预测,楼市释放3大信号,今明两年"降价潮"或继续。 信号一、库存高位 根据数据显示,目前全国范围内的商品房库存量依旧处于高位,甚至有增无减。2023年新房市场待售面积为6.7亿㎡ ...
China Property_ Major Developers' February Sales Stayed Decent, but Sustainability Remains Key
2025-03-03 10:45
Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically the performance of major developers in February 2025, as tracked by **CRIC** [1][2]. Key Points Sales Performance - **Contracted sales** of 30 major developers dropped **16% year-on-year (y-y)** in February 2025, following a low base [1]. - The **top 50 and top 100 developers** saw attributable sales growth of **3% and 2% y-y**, respectively, compared to declines of **-4% and -1% in January** [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) sales decline for the top developers narrowed to **-1% and 0% y-y** in the first two months of 2025, contrasting with **+5% and +2% in Q4 2024** [2]. Divergence in Performance - **State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)** outperformed others, with notable growth from **Yuexiu (+63%)**, **COLI (+55%)**, **CR Land (+47%)**, and **C&D (+36%)** y-y [3]. - Conversely, some developers like **Zhongliang**, **Zhongnan**, and **Seazen** experienced declines exceeding **50% y-y** [3]. - Semi-SOE developers such as **Gemdale** and **Vanke** also reported weak performance, with declines of **-45% and -27% y-y**, respectively [3]. Future Outlook - Sales for major developers are expected to weaken y-y in the coming months due to reduced saleable resources and a higher base [4]. - The housing policy response is anticipated to remain reactive, with limited demand-side stimulus until housing prices stabilize [4]. - There is a need for faster policy implementation, particularly regarding funding and inventory buybacks, to bolster homebuyer confidence [4]. Investment Recommendations - The industry performance may hinge on sustained sales and home price recovery, with mixed signals observed in the physical market [5]. - The recommendation is to focus on **defensive SOE players** with substantial saleable resources in tier 1 cities, such as **CR Land (1109.HK)**, **Greentown (3900.HK)**, and **Yuexiu (0123.HK)** [5]. Additional Insights - The **fragility of residential sentiment** is highlighted, as reflected in declining secondary listing prices [5]. - The **aggregate sales** for the top developers showed a **-1% y-y** change, with a **-5% month-on-month (m-m)** decline in February 2025 [9]. Conclusion - The China Property market is facing challenges with declining sales and a reactive policy environment. However, SOEs are showing resilience, and strategic investments in top-tier developers may present opportunities amidst the volatility.