Core Insights - Estée Lauder Companies experienced a significant drop in share price, falling over 20% intra-day due to quarterly results and tariff concerns [1] - The company reported second-quarter earnings per share of $0.89, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.83, and a 43% increase from the previous year [1] - Revenue for the quarter rose 6% year over year to $4.23 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of $4.22 billion [1] Sales Performance - Net sales in skin care and fragrance increased by 6%, while hair care returned to growth with a 5% increase [2] - Makeup sales declined by 1%, primarily due to weakness in the Estée Lauder brand, although MAC showed strength [2] - Mainland China exhibited strong performance with 13% organic sales growth, while Europe, the UK, the Middle East, and Africa posted 2% organic growth; the Americas reported flat organic sales [2] Profitability Outlook - Despite raising its full-year outlook, Estée Lauder warned that tariff-related pressures would reduce fiscal 2026 profitability by approximately $100 million, mainly in the second half of the year [3] - The company highlighted tariffs, including a 39% rate on Swiss imports and a 35% rate on Canadian imports into the U.S. [3] - Reported and adjusted gross margin expanded by 40 basis points to 76.5%, benefiting from the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan, although offset by tariffs, inflation, and changes in product mix [4] Future Projections - Estée Lauder raised its fiscal 2026 outlook, now expecting organic net sales growth of 1% to 3% and adjusted earnings per share of $2.05 to $2.25 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Estée Lauder Companies Inc experienced a nearly 22% drop in share price due to mixed signals on growth and profit pressures, despite a solid quarterly performance and an increased earnings forecast for the year [1]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $4.23 billion, slightly surpassing analysts' expectations of $4.22 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.89, exceeding forecasts of $0.83 [2]. - Organic sales grew by 4% year-on-year, an acceleration from a 3% increase in Q1, driven by a 13% surge in Mainland China [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) contributed to a 290 basis point increase in adjusted operating margin to 14.4%, helping to mitigate some tariff pressures [3]. - Management reported progress in cost-cutting, workforce reductions, and operational improvements, indicating that the most severe inventory and travel retail volatility is behind them [3]. Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, the company expects adjusted EPS between $2.05 and $2.25, slightly below the Street consensus of $2.19 [4]. - Projected organic net sales growth is anticipated to be between 1% and 3%, with modest growth expected in Mainland China and flat performance in the Americas [4]. - Tariff-related costs are projected to reduce operating profit by approximately $100 million [4]. Segment Performance - Skincare led sales with $2.05 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, followed by fragrance at $812 million (+9%), makeup at $1.16 billion (+1%), and hair care at $168 million (+6%) [5]. - Geographically, sales contributions were $1.22 billion from the Americas, $1.18 billion from Europe/Kem, $900 million from Asia/Pacific, and $928 million from Mainland China [5]. Market Reactions - Jefferies noted that while Q2 sales and EPS exceeded expectations, the full-year EPS guidance fell short of Street models, indicating investor caution [6]. - Investors are expected to focus on commentary regarding travel retail consumption in Asia, operating margin levers, cash flow allocation, and ongoing innovation initiatives across Estée Lauder's brands [6].

Core Insights - The company is experiencing a significant transformation, focusing on long-term growth and cultural change, with a strong emphasis on building a consumer-centric beauty brand [2][5] - Despite positive retail sales growth in mainland China at 13% and a slight increase in the Americas by 1%, the company's stock price fell nearly 20% due to lower-than-expected earnings forecasts [1][3] - The company has adjusted its full-year net sales forecast to a range of 1% to 3%, up from a previous outlook of flat to 3% [3] Geographical Performance - Mainland China reported a second consecutive quarter of double-digit retail sales growth at 13% [1] - The Americas saw a modest increase in retail sales of 1% [1] - In Europe, consumer sentiment remains subdued, particularly in France and Germany, while Spain and Italy showed strong performance [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing the "Beauty Reimagined" strategy and a Profit Recovery and Growth Plan to improve its market position [4][5] - The CEO highlighted the importance of diversifying distribution channels, including partnerships with Amazon and TikTok, and entering Sephora U.S. with the MAC brand [7][8] Market Challenges - The company anticipates tariff-related headwinds to impact profitability by approximately $100 million in fiscal 2026, primarily in the second half [2] - There has been a slowdown in consumer consumption in Latin America recently, attributed partly to tariffs [5] Department Store Dynamics - Department stores remain a crucial channel for luxury brands, accounting for around 30% of retail, although this varies by brand [6][8] - The company is actively supporting department stores like Saks during their transition, which owes Lauder $16 million [6][7]

Core Insights - The Consumer Staples sector is currently underperforming, ranking among the bottom 32% of Zacks classified sectors, with earnings expected to decline in the upcoming reports [2][3]. Industry Overview - U.S. consumer stocks are facing challenges such as weakening consumer confidence, persistent inflation, and pressure on discretionary spending, which are squeezing margins and making earnings growth difficult [3]. - Global demand uncertainty, inflationary pressures, weather volatility, and geopolitical concerns are further constraining margins and limiting near-term earnings growth [3]. Earnings Performance - As of now, 26.7% of Consumer Staples companies have reported earnings, with a year-over-year earnings decline of 3.7% and a revenue drop of 1.1% [5]. - For the December quarter, earnings are expected to decline by 2.4% year-over-year, while revenues are projected to rise by 2.4% [6]. Company-Specific Insights - **Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL)**: Expected to report revenue of $4.22 billion, a 5.3% increase year-over-year, with earnings estimated at 83 cents per share, reflecting a 33.9% growth [8]. The company is benefiting from its Profit Recovery and Growth Plan [9]. - **Hershey Company (HSY)**: Anticipated to report revenues of $3 billion, a 4% increase, but earnings are expected to decline by nearly 48% to $1.40 per share [10][11]. Continued demand in its core portfolio is expected to support results despite margin pressures [11]. - **Newell Brands Inc. (NWL)**: Expected to see a revenue decline to $1.89 billion, a 3.3% drop, while earnings are projected to grow by 12.5% to 18 cents per share [12]. The company is facing challenges from inflation and geopolitical volatility [12]. - **Coty Inc. (COTY)**: Projected to report revenues of $1.66 billion, a slight decline of 0.3%, with earnings expected to increase by 63.6% to 18 cents per share [13]. The company is experiencing revenue constraints due to a highly promotional market and tariff pressures [13]. - **Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)**: Expected to report revenues of $10.4 billion, a 7.3% increase, with earnings stable at $1.67 per share, reflecting a 7.7% growth [14]. The company is benefiting from strong pricing power and a growing smoke-free product portfolio [14].

Core Insights - Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is expected to report its second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on February 5, 2026, with projected revenues of $4.22 billion, reflecting a 5.3% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share (EPS) of 83 cents, indicating a 33.9% growth from the previous year [1][9] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 82.6%, with the last quarter's earnings surpassing estimates by 100% [2] - The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.62% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming earnings report [4][3] Market Trends - Estee Lauder is experiencing improving demand trends, particularly in the fragrance segment, supported by better retail sales excluding travel retail, despite ongoing pressures in Mainland China and Asia travel retail [5][9] - The company's Profit Recovery and Growth Plan is contributing to margin expansion and earnings growth, aided by targeted cost reductions and improved operational efficiency [7][11] Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Estee Lauder's stock has increased by 18.1%, outperforming the Cosmetics industry (6.2%), the broader Zacks Consumer Staples sector (6.4%), and the S&P 500 (3.2%) [8] - The stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 43.99X, significantly higher than the industry average of 29.59X, reflecting investor expectations for improved performance [10] Investment Outlook - Estee Lauder's strong brand leadership and recovery potential in earnings make it an attractive option for investors looking for exposure in the prestige beauty sector, despite its premium valuation compared to peers [11]

Core Insights - Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) has shown strong performance with a 21.9% increase in shares over the past three months, significantly outperforming the broader market and its key peers [1][2][10] Company Performance - Estee Lauder's stock reached a 52-week high of $119.43 before settling at $115.37, trading above both its 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating a positive technical setup [6] - The company has returned to organic sales growth with a 3% increase in net sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, alongside a 300 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margin to 7.3% [8][10] - Adjusted gross margin improved by 60 basis points to 73.3%, driven by procurement efficiencies and better inventory management, which helped offset inflationary pressures [9] Market Position - Estee Lauder is gaining market share in the prestige beauty segment across key markets, including Mainland China, the United States, and parts of Western Europe, with strong performances from brands like La Mer and TOM FORD [10][11] - The company is enhancing consumer reach through expanded distribution channels, including Amazon Premium Beauty and TikTok Shop, which positions it well to capitalize on changing consumer buying patterns [11] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has been revised upward, with fiscal 2026 and 2027 estimates increasing by 2 cents each to $2.16 and $2.93, indicating expected year-over-year growth rates of 43.1% and 35.9% respectively [12] Valuation - Estee Lauder's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 44.76X, significantly higher than the industry average of 29.87X, reflecting investor expectations for improved performance [13] - Despite the elevated P/E ratio, Estee Lauder is viewed as an attractive investment opportunity due to its brand leadership and potential for earnings recovery [16][17]

Core Insights - The Estée Lauder Companies reported improved financial results, with net sales increasing by 4% to $3.5 billion in the first quarter ended September 30, surpassing estimates of $3.38 billion [2] - Net earnings rose to $47 million, a significant recovery from a loss of $156 million in the previous year, with adjusted diluted net earnings per share increasing to 32 cents, exceeding analysts' expectations of 18 cents [3] Financial Performance - Organic net sales grew by 3%, indicating a return to growth after a challenging previous year [2] - The company has implemented a restructuring program, resulting in cumulative charges of $852 million and a net reduction of over 4,000 positions [4] Strategic Initiatives - The Beauty Reimagined strategy aims to restore organic sales growth and improve profitability, with a focus on gaining market share in key areas [4] - Despite positive quarterly results, the company maintained its full-year outlook, forecasting sales growth between flat and 3% for fiscal 2026 [5][6] Market Performance - Skin care net sales increased by 3%, driven by La Mer and Estée Lauder, particularly in Asia travel retail [8] - Fragrance sales rose by 13%, while makeup and hair care sales declined by 2% and 7%, respectively [8] Regional Insights - The company experienced a 9% sales growth in mainland China, outperforming the market, while North America faced challenges with a low-single-digit decline [10] - The launch of MAC Cosmetics at Sephora in early 2026 is part of the company's strategy to diversify its retail offerings in the U.S. [11] E-commerce Expansion - The company is expanding its presence on Amazon, recently launching in Mexico, which is identified as a key growth market [12]

Core Viewpoint - Estée Lauder is experiencing significant revenue declines amid a challenging global economy, leading to skepticism about future growth despite cost-cutting measures and a new management strategy [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Estée Lauder reported a revenue decline of 11.9% to $3.41 billion, with adjusted earnings per share dropping 86% to $0.09, although these results were better than analysts' low expectations [3]. - The revenue decline was primarily driven by a 24% drop in sales in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa region, attributed to weak travel-related business from Chinese tourists [4]. Management and Strategy - The new CEO, Stéphane de La Faverie, has expanded the "Profit Recovery and Growth Plan" (PRGP), resulting in the reduction of 5,800 to 7,000 employees, which may be impacting current revenue [5]. - Despite the revenue challenges, management claims that adjusted gross margins have structurally improved over the past year [5]. Future Outlook - Management projects a revenue growth of 0% to 3% for the upcoming year on a constant currency basis, indicating a potential return to growth [7]. - The stock remains significantly below its all-time highs, trading at 40 times forward earnings, suggesting that investors will need to see substantial profit growth beyond the next year for a meaningful recovery [8].

Core Insights - The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with both net sales and earnings declining year over year, despite beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted earnings and net sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings were 9 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 8 cents, but down 85% from 64 cents in the same quarter last year [1]. - Quarterly net sales reached $3,411 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,402 million, but reflecting a 12% decline year over year [2]. Category-Wise Revenue Results - Skin Care sales decreased 16% year over year to $1,705 million, primarily due to challenges in the Asia travel retail business [3]. - Makeup revenues fell 11% to $982 million, driven by lower sales from Estee Lauder and M·A·C, as well as reduced sales for Too Faced in North America [4]. - Fragrance category revenues increased 4% to $560 million, led by luxury brands Le Labo and Jo Malone [5]. - Hair Care sales totaled $141 million, down 15% year over year, largely due to challenges in North America [6]. Regional Revenue Results - Sales in the Americas declined 6% year over year to $949 million [7]. - Revenues in the EMEA region fell 22% to $1,293 million [7]. - Asia-Pacific region sales tumbled 3% to $1,166 million [7]. Margin and Operating Performance - Adjusted gross margin improved by 10 basis points year over year to 71.9%, aided by the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan [8]. - The company reported an operating loss of $390 million, compared to a loss of $233 million in the prior year [9]. - Adjusted Operating Income declined 61% to $137 million [9]. Financial Health Snapshot - The company exited the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $2,921 million, long-term debt of $7,314 million, and total equity of $3,865 million [10]. - Net cash flow from operating activities for the 12 months ended June 30, 2025, was $1,272 million, with capital expenditures of $602 million [10]. Restructuring Program - The company announced an expansion of its Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP), with a comprehensive restructuring initiative expected to be completed by fiscal 2027 [12]. - Anticipated restructuring charges range from $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion before taxes, with expected annual gross benefits of $800 million to $1 billion [13]. Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, reported net sales are estimated to rise 2-5%, with adjusted organic net sales expected to grow 0-3% [14]. - Adjusted earnings per share are projected to increase by 26-39%, ranging from $1.90 to $2.10 [14]. - The company expects organic net sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 to show a low-single-digit decline to slightly positive growth [15].

Core Insights - The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is expected to report declines in both net sales and earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with net sales estimated at $3.4 billion, reflecting a 12.2% decrease year-over-year [1][9] - The earnings consensus for the fourth quarter has risen by 2 cents to 8 cents per share, indicating an 87.5% decline compared to the previous year [2][9] - The company is facing challenges due to weak consumer sentiment in Mainland China and a downturn in global travel retail, impacting the prestige beauty sector [3][4] Sales and Earnings Expectations - The anticipated organic net sales decline for the fourth quarter is projected at 13.4%, following a 28% drop in Asia travel retail during the third quarter [4] - Retailer destocking across various regions, including Asia-Pacific and North America, is expected to further pressure sales despite gradual improvements in retail trends outside of travel retail [4] Operating Expenses and Profitability - The Estee Lauder Companies has experienced a significant increase in operating expenses, which rose by 580 basis points as a percentage of sales in the fiscal third quarter, primarily due to investments aimed at growth [5] - Any potential deleverage in operating expenses may negatively impact profit margins [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a Profit Recovery and Growth Plan focused on margin expansion, targeted investments, and process simplification to enhance agility [6] - An expanded presence in high-growth digital channels and positioning in emerging markets are seen as positive factors that may support performance in the fourth quarter [6] Earnings Prediction - The company's earnings model suggests a likelihood of an earnings beat, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +36.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]