Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - The week includes the Jolt survey, consumer confidence data, and the Fed survey [2] - ADP number is expected to be on the low side, with 82,000 expected [3] - GDP adjustments are anticipated due to import handling [3] - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator will be released [4] - Non-farm payrolls are expected to be 102,000, but previous reports have surprised to the upside [4] - The Fed meeting and announcement are significant, with potential dissents from Waller and Bowman [5] - There's a very low probability (2.1%) of a Fed rate cut in July, but a 66% probability for September and 63% for December, indicating expectations of two cuts this year [6][7] Tariffs & Economic Impact - The removal of crazy high tariffs and uncertainty about tariffs is noted [9][10] - The focus shifts to the economic impacts of tariffs, including potential inflation and weakened growth [10] - The stock market's reaction to these economic factors is being observed, with some suggesting a potential disconnect between the stock market and the economic outlook [10][11]

Market Trends & Economic Policy - Tesla's Q2 deliveries are expected to fall by 11% due to backlash against CEO Elon Musk's political views and increased competition [3] - The US Senate passed President Trump's bill, extending expiring tax cuts for businesses and individuals and adding new breaks for tipped workers, the elderly, and car buyers [8] - The bill shifts towards fossil fuels and phases out Biden-era green energy credits faster than expected [13] - Tariffs are influencing rate policies, and the Fed would already be cutting rates if it weren't for tariffs [25][27] - President Trump's July 9th tariff deadline is approaching, with uncertainty surrounding trade deals with countries like India and Japan [31][32][33] Company Performance & Investment - If you invested $1,000 in Tesla 15 years ago, those shares would be worth $269,000 today [5] - Jeff Bezos sold Amazon shares worth almost $737 million late last month, and almost $5 billion in 2024, but still owns around 95 million shares [6] - Santander's shares popped 3% after announcing it would acquire TSB for about $35 billion, expecting a return on investment of around 20% [20][21] - Centene's shares tumbled 26% in pre-market trading after withdrawing financial guidance for 2025 and announcing that earnings will fall short of expectations [22] - Constellation Brands, the maker of Corona beer, missed quarterly earnings estimates due to softer demand and increased costs, including aluminium tariffs [24][25] Cryptocurrency Market - More than $300 billion of crypto value has been wiped out so far this year [37] - Bitcoin is now about 2/3 of the total market value of crypto assets, the highest since 2021 [37]