Core Insights - TC Energy Corporation (TRP) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 13, with earnings estimated at 65 cents per share and revenues at $2.93 billion [1][7]. Group 1: Recent Performance - In the last reported quarter, TRP's adjusted earnings were 56 cents per share, aligning with consensus estimates, driven by strong performance in its Canadian, U.S., and Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines segments [2]. - TRP's quarterly revenues reached $3.7 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $49 million [2]. Group 2: Earnings Surprise History - TRP has beaten consensus estimates in two of the past four quarters, matched in one, and missed once, resulting in an average surprise of 2.49% [3]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has experienced one upward and three downward revisions in the past 30 days, indicating a projected 13.33% year-over-year decrease in earnings, while revenues are expected to increase by 14.79% [3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - TRP generates income by operating a vast network of pipelines for natural gas and oil transportation, charging fees for these services, and also earns from natural gas storage and power generation [4]. - The company is expected to see improved revenues in the upcoming quarter, but rising expenses may negatively impact its bottom line, as total costs and expenses were higher in the previous quarter [5][7]. Group 4: Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for TRP this season, as the Earnings ESP is -0.23% and the company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 [6][8].

Acquisitions and Divestitures - Kinder Morgan acquired Northeast Transport & Storage Assets for $1225 million[8], with ~41 bcf of FERC-certificated storage capacity and ~3 bcfd of aggregate transportation pipeline capacity[11] - The company acquired Kinetrex Energy for $310 million[12], which includes 1 operational landfill-RNG facility with ~04 bcf capacity and expects 3 landfill-RNG facilities operational by 2022 end with total capacity of 35 bcf[17] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's 2021 forecast EBITDA is $79 billion[23] - The company has a $2 billion share buyback program with over $14 billion of program capacity remaining[23] - The company's 2021 expected Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA is 40x[25] Market Position and Strategy - The company moves ~40% of US natural gas consumption & exports[19] - The company's stable cash flows are with ~72% take-or-pay or hedged earnings[26],[79] - The company has a $13 billion project backlog with ~64% allocated to natural gas projects[25],[83] Energy Transition and Renewables - The company's CO2 transport capacity is ~15 bcfd with ~1500 miles of CO2 pipelines[18] - The company handled nearly 260 mbbld of ethanol, biodiesel, & renewable diesel in 2020[69]