The Netherlands Gambling Authority (Ksa) has imposed a penalty order on Adventure One QSS Inc., the operator of prediction market platform Polymarket, for offering what it called illegal gambling services in the country without a license. It marks the latest legal setback for the company as regulators worldwide intensify scrutiny of the sector. In a statement published Tuesday, the Ksa said it had ordered Polymarket to immediately cease offering services to Dutch users. If the company fails to comply, it ...

Core Insights - The report by CertiK highlights the significant growth of the global prediction market, with trading volume increasing from approximately $15.8 billion in 2024 to $63.5 billion in 2025, marking a fourfold increase [1] - Despite this rapid growth, the industry faces substantial challenges in infrastructure security, compliance consistency, and long-term sustainability [1] Market Landscape - The prediction market is currently dominated by three platforms: Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion, which together account for over 95% of global trading volume [2] - Kalshi maintains a strong position in the U.S. market through compliance with regulations and integration with Robinhood, reaching 24 million retail investors [2] - Polymarket, despite facing geographical restrictions in the U.S., remains a preferred choice for crypto-native users and is frequently cited by mainstream media [2] - Opinion is the fastest-growing platform, capturing approximately 30% market share in a short period, leveraging incentives from the BNB chain ecosystem [2] - There is a notable "structural rotation" in liquidity, with the BNB chain's activity surpassing traditional leaders like Polygon at the beginning of 2026 [2] Top 10 Prediction Market Rankings - The rankings provided by CertiK's Skynet Top Board focus on the overall risk structure and long-term stability of projects rather than just market capitalization or trading volume [3] Security Risks - The rapid growth of the prediction market has amplified security risks, including: - Fragmented regulatory landscape leading to compliance challenges across different jurisdictions [4] - High estimates of up to 60% of false trading volumes during peak incentive periods, distorting liquidity metrics [4] - Vulnerabilities in Web2 access layers, as demonstrated by a December 2025 incident involving Polymarket's identity verification provider [4] - Retained administrative privileges on decentralized platforms, which pose risks to user funds and market fairness [4] Regulatory Developments - Hong Kong, Dubai, and Singapore are actively working to establish clear regulatory frameworks for prediction markets, with Hong Kong expected to clarify rules soon [5] Future Outlook - For prediction market platforms to survive long-term, they must maintain liquidity across multiple jurisdictions, build secure infrastructure to attract institutional funds, and develop sustainable business models independent of incentive-driven trading volumes [6] - The industry's security challenges have evolved from solely smart contract risks to encompass oracle mechanisms, administrative privilege management, and systemic issues arising from mixed Web2 and Web3 architectures [6] Security Solutions - CertiK has introduced targeted solutions to address these risks, including smart contract audits, real-time monitoring, oracle security reviews, and Web2.5 penetration testing [7] - The report emphasizes that enhanced security capabilities are becoming essential for prediction market platforms to gain long-term trust and ensure sustainable development [7]

Kalshi Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo has acquired a sub-1% equity stake in prediction market platform Kalshi, the company confirmed to The Block, making him the first active NBA player to take a financial position in a platform that offers event contracts on basketball games. Antetokounmpo announced the deal Friday on X, one day after the NBA's Feb. 5 trade deadline passed without the two-time MVP being moved from Milwaukee. "The internet is full of opinions. I decided it was time to make ...

Publicly traded American crypto exchange Coinbase continued its expansion beyond crypto trading on Wednesday, officially rolling out its prediction market product to American users in all 50 states. The markets allow individuals to test their knowledge across sports, culture, politics, and crypto, making use of the already established market presence and contracts offered by leading prediction market platform, Kalshi. “Prediction markets are the ultimate form of truth-seeking,” Coinbase CEO Brian Armstro ...

Coinbase (COIN) has rolled out its new prediction market platform to U.S. users, enabling them to trade on the outcomes of real-world events including elections, sports, collectibles, and economic indicators. The platform, announced in December, is built in partnership with Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market operator recently valued at $11 billion. Kalshi offers event-based contracts that function like simplified derivatives—traders buy “yes” or “no” positions on specific outcomes, with the price ...

Core Insights - Investor confidence has been tested over the past year due to policy changes and a government shutdown, but sentiment is shifting positively as of 2026, driven by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) [1] IPO Predictions - Kraken has an 83% chance of going public before 2027, having already filed confidentially for a U.S. IPO, contributing to a trend among digital asset companies preparing for the U.S. equity markets ahead of the 2026 midterms [3] - Cerebras Systems, an AI chipmaker, has a 77% probability of announcing an IPO before next year, with plans to re-file after previously withdrawing its IPO paperwork [4] - Databricks, an AI software company, has a 70% chance of going public before 2027, having raised over $4 billion at a valuation of $134 billion [5] - Discord also has a 70% probability of announcing an IPO before 2027, with a last valuation around $15 billion [5] - Fintech firm Plaid has a 49% chance of going public, while defense tech company Anduril and apparel brand Skims both have a 46% likelihood [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that a long-term trend of economic decline will be prevalent in society, leading individuals to seek alternative investment strategies, particularly in high-risk areas like cryptocurrency and prediction markets, as traditional wealth accumulation pathways have become blocked [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Disparities - The traditional wealth accumulation mechanisms have failed, with the Baby Boomer generation holding 50% of national wealth while Millennials only possess about 10% [3][5]. - The cost of living has increased significantly, with housing costs doubling while wages have only grown by 8%, leading to a 33% increase in debt burdens for younger generations [5][11]. - The current economic structure has created a sense of entrapment for many, as they struggle to find realistic paths to achieve financial stability and success [3][4]. Group 2: Changing Work Dynamics - The implicit contract of job security and loyalty in exchange for stable returns has broken down, making long-term employment a disadvantage rather than an advantage [4][5]. - The rise of artificial intelligence threatens white-collar jobs, leading to increased anxiety among workers about job security and the future of their careers [11][12]. - Social media exacerbates feelings of inadequacy, as individuals constantly compare themselves to others who appear to be more successful, further driving the desire for quick financial gains [13][14]. Group 3: Rise of High-Risk Investments - Younger generations are increasingly turning to high-risk investments like cryptocurrency and prediction markets as traditional career paths seem less viable [18][19]. - The gambling-like nature of these investments provides a sense of agency and control that is lacking in conventional job markets, making them appealing despite the inherent risks [19][24]. - The prediction market and sports betting industries are experiencing explosive growth, with significant increases in transaction volumes and participation rates among younger demographics [21][26]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies that facilitate high-risk investments, such as Polymarket and Coinbase, are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for these services, regardless of individual success rates [25][26]. - The entrepreneurial landscape is expanding, with many opportunities aimed at helping individuals escape traditional employment structures, further driving interest in high-risk ventures [25][27]. - The underlying economic conditions that drive young people towards speculative behavior are unlikely to change, suggesting a sustained demand for platforms that cater to these needs [27][28].

Core Insights - Coinbase has entered the prediction market space, allowing users in the U.S. to trade on outcomes of real-world events such as elections and sports [2][3] - The prediction market offerings are part of a broader update announced during the "Coinbase System Update" event [2] - Users will manage prediction market positions alongside existing crypto and equity balances, with initial market flow coming from Kalshi [3] Industry Trends - The prediction market sector is experiencing significant growth, with analysts suggesting it could evolve into a new asset class [4][6] - Robinhood's CEO noted that prediction markets are their fastest-growing business, with 2.3 billion event contracts traded in Q3 and 2.5 billion in October alone [5] - The prediction market boom is characterized by events-based contract trading that offers transparency and liquidity, although it raises concerns about regulatory arbitrage and consumer protections [6] Coinbase's New Offerings - In addition to prediction markets, Coinbase is expanding its DEX trading integration to include Solana tokens and is introducing futures and perpetual futures trading [7]

Company Overview - Shayne Coplan, founder of Polymarket, briefly became the world's youngest self-made billionaire at age 27 in October 2023, emphasizing that success takes time and effort [1] - Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform that gained mainstream success in 2024, particularly during the U.S. presidential election, attracting billions in trading volume and outperforming traditional polls [4] Investment and Valuation - In October 2023, the Intercontinental Exchange, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, which valued the platform at $9 billion post-money [5] - This investment contributed to Coplan's net worth reaching $1 billion, as reported by Forbes [6] Historical Context - Coplan's journey began at age 14 when he emailed the SEC about his plans to create an electronic communication network-based stock exchange [2] - After a brief stint studying computer science at NYU, Coplan dropped out in 2017 to pursue various cryptocurrency projects, which were unsuccessful [3]

Prediction market platform Kalshi has announced that it has become CNN's official partner, integrating its prediction market data into CNN's programming and providing real-time probability data on future cultural and political events to CNN's newsroom, data team, and production team. https://t.co/2kTJP7nNFz ...