17 December 2025 | 12:40PM HKT Portfolio Strategy Research ASIA STRATEGY BASKETS Focusing on Value Cyclicals, AI, and Policy-Driven Themes Our strategy baskets provide investors with a unique investment platform to generate ideas and track Asian equities through macro slices, geographic exposure, styles/factors, positioning, and thematic lenses. In this update, we rebalance 50 strategy baskets, which can be tracked in real time on Bloomberg and GS Marquee. Top Basket and Thematic Ideas Alvin So, CFA +852-29 ...

Summary of China Securities Index (CSI) Rebalancing Review and Flow Implications Industry Overview - The document discusses the semi-annual rebalancing of the China Securities Index (CSI) Company, which affects various indices including CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, among others [1][2]. Key Points Constituent Changes - **CSI 300**: 11 constituents replaced - **CSI 500**: 50 constituents replaced - **CSI 1000**: 100 constituents replaced - **CSI A50**: 4 constituents replaced - **CSI A500**: 20 constituents replaced - **SSE 50**: 4 constituents replaced - **STAR 50**: 2 constituents replaced - **Chinext 50**: 2 constituents replaced - **Overseas China Internet Index**: 5 additions and 1 deletion [2]. Index Implications - **Proforma Index Cap**: - CSI 300: US$3,440 billion (+1.0%) - CSI 500: US$1,210 billion (-2.0%) - CSI 1000: US$1,100 billion (-1.3%) - **Forward 12M P/E Ratios**: - CSI 300: from 14.1x to 14.2x - CSI 500: from 20.5x to 20.2x - CSI 1000: from 23.0x to 22.7x - **EPS Growth (2026E–27E CAGR)**: - CSI 300: from 13.5% to 13.4% - CSI 500: from 20.3% to 20.8% - CSI 1000: from 24.8% to 24.4% [2]. Sector Implications - **Largest Passive Buying**: - Tech Hardware & Semis: +US$1,350 million - Capital Goods: +US$600 million - Insurance/Brokers: +US$340 million - **Largest Outflows**: - Banks: -US$970 million - Consumer Retail: -US$300 million - Telecom: -US$300 million - Real Estate: -US$300 million - **Total Expected Gross Passive Flows**: Over US$23 billion [3]. Stock Implications - **Top Additions** (largest passive net buying flows): - Victory Giant Tech: US$738 million - Dongshan Precision: US$680 million - Kuang-Chi Tech: US$515 million - Sugon: US$396 million - Zhongtian Tech: US$358 million - Northern Rare Earth: US$320 million - **Top Deletions** (largest outflows): - China Mobile: -US$290 million - CRRC: -US$250 million - Chinalco: -US$240 million - TCL Zhonghuan Renewable: -US$170 million - Huagong Tech: -US$180 million - Bank of Jiangsu: -US$200 million [3]. Historical vs. Current Patterns - Current stock additions have significantly outperformed pre-announcement patterns for CSI 300 and moderately for CSI 500, while remaining largely in line for CSI 1000. - Historically, moderate outperformance typically persists until the effective date but often gives back some of these gains afterward [4]. Additional Insights - The rebalancing is expected to trigger significant changes in sector weights and could impact trading patterns across various indices. - The document includes detailed statistics on potential passive flows and trading patterns, which may provide insights for investors looking to capitalize on these changes [6][9]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the rebalancing review and its implications for the market, sectors, and specific stocks within the Chinese securities landscape.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Asia equity market, particularly in relation to AI themes and policy-driven catalysts amid macro uncertainties [2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Performance and Recommendations** - The Asia equity market (MXAPJ) has rebounded 34% from April's low without any significant pullbacks, suggesting a focus on AI and policy-driven themes is prudent [2][7]. - The Regional Asia Drawdown Risk model indicates a potential moderate correction of 10-20% due to macro volatility [7]. 2. **Investment Strategy Baskets** - 46 strategy baskets have been rebalanced, allowing investors to track Asian equities through various lenses such as macroeconomic factors, geographic exposure, and thematic focuses [1][5]. - Key themes include: - **Value to Growth Rotation**: Growth has outperformed Value recently, supported by expectations of Fed easing [4][8]. - **Shareholder Yield**: Enhancements in dividends and buybacks are recommended, particularly focusing on High Dividend Yield with Growth [4][8]. - **Tech vs. Macro Divergence**: Optimism around AI capital expenditures supports AIGC Hardware and Semiconductors over US exposure [4][8]. 3. **Earnings Momentum** - Dynamic revision factors have shown consistent alpha across market cycles, with notable performance in Consensus Revision Winners vs. Losers and Strong vs. Weak Earnings Revisions [4][8]. 4. **Structural Themes** - **Power Up Asia**: Focus on nuclear and renewable energy, supported by China's policies [4][8]. - **AI Applications**: Accelerated adoption of AI technologies is expected to drive growth in related sectors [4][8]. - **Defense Spending**: Increased geopolitical risks are expected to boost defense-related investments [4][8]. - **China POEs Comeback**: Chinese prominent companies are positioned to extend their market leadership amid regulatory easing [4][8]. - **Korea Value Up**: Governance reforms in Korea are expected to enhance market performance [4][8]. - **Indian Consumption**: Recent GST cuts are anticipated to benefit consumer-sensitive sectors [4][8]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights 50 GS Buy-Rated names that align with preferred factors within recommended themes, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities across sectors [3][9]. - The performance of Taiwan's Apple suppliers is expected to benefit from new product launches, particularly the iPhone [13][14]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and market conditions, as they can significantly impact investment strategies [36]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current investment landscape in the Asian equity market.

Summary of Hang Seng Indexes Rebalancing Review and Flow Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Hang Seng Indexes, specifically the Hang Seng Index (HSI), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH), and Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Constituent Changes - Pop Mart (9992.HK), China Telecom (728.HK), and JD Logistics (2618.HK) will be added to the HSI, increasing the total number of constituents from 85 to 88 [2]. - Pop Mart will replace J&T Global Express (1519.HK) in the HSCEI [2]. - No changes were made to the HSTECH [2]. - A total of 24 stocks were added and 22 removed from the HSCI [2]. Index Weight Adjustments - The weights of the HSI, HSCEI, and HSTECH will be adjusted by 2.5%, 2.9%, and 5.7% respectively after rebalancing [2]. - The proforma index cap is expected to rise to US$2,090 billion for HSI (+1.6%), US$1,420 billion for HSCEI (+1.1%), and US$480 billion for HSTECH (+9%) [3]. Valuation Changes - The forward 12M P/E ratios and EPS growth rates are projected to change as follows: - HSI: from 11.3x to 11.4x and EPS growth from 5.4% to 5.7% - HSCEI: from 10.7x to 10.8x and EPS growth from 6.3% to 6.6% - HSTECH: from 17.6x to 18.0x and EPS growth from 17.5% to 16.8% [3]. Passive AUM Tracking - Passive AUM tracking the Hang Seng Family of Indexes reached nearly US$90 billion, accounting for approximately 3% of the Hang Seng Composite Index free float [3]. Sector Implications - Consumer Retail, Software & Services, and Autos are expected to see the largest passive inflows, estimated between US$300 million to US$780 million [4]. - Conversely, Internet/Media & Entertainment, Tech Hardware & Semis, and Banks may experience outflows ranging from -US$270 million to -US$950 million [4]. Stock Implications - The top six stocks expected to see the largest passive net buying flows include: - Horizon Robotics, Pop Mart, BYD, Meituan, Xiaomi, and Alibaba, with potential inflows ranging from US$185 million to US$610 million [4]. - Stocks anticipated to face the largest outflows include Tencent, SMIC, Kuaishou, and JD, with outflows ranging from -US$150 million to -US$550 million [4][9]. Historical Performance Patterns - Current additions to the HSCEI and HSCI have outperformed typical past patterns pre-announcement, while the HSI has shown less volatility [9]. - Historical performance tends to reverse after the first day following the announcement for HSI, while HSTECH stabilizes and HSCEI shows volatility [9]. Southbound Implications - Changes in HSCI constituents typically affect Southbound (SB) eligibility, with historical ownership rising by 1 percentage point within two days after inclusion becomes effective [10]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes that investors should consider this analysis as one of many factors in their investment decisions [7]. - The report includes detailed data on potential passive flows, trading patterns, and sector weight changes, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics post-rebalancing [15].