Core Viewpoint - Supermicro Computer (SMCI) is set to release its Q4 FY2025 earnings report, with analysts predicting a 29% year-over-year decline in EPS to $0.45, while revenue is expected to grow 13% to $5.98 billion [1] Financial Performance and Outlook - In the previous quarter, Supermicro reported revenue of $4.6 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, but fell short of expectations by 2.84% due to delayed orders during the transition from Hopper to Blackwell GPUs [2] - Management indicated that these delayed demands will be fulfilled in Q4 and Q1 FY2026, alleviating profit margin pressures caused by inventory reserves [2] Positive Signals for Q4 - There is a surge in demand for liquid cooling solutions, supported by Supermicro's accelerated investment in Europe and industry dynamics [3] - The company is set to launch new products, including the B300/GB300 systems, and is expected to experience a shipping peak from Q4 to Q1 FY2026 [3] - Supermicro has secured a $20 billion multi-year agreement with Saudi DataVolt for AI infrastructure, enhancing its global footprint [3] Management Confidence vs. Market Expectations - CEO Charles Liang expressed confidence in achieving at least $6 billion in revenue for Q4, which is higher than current market expectations by 1.2% [4] Revenue Estimates - Analysts project revenue estimates for upcoming quarters, with Q4 FY2025 expected at $5.91 billion, Q1 FY2026 at $6.228 billion, and Q2 FY2026 at $7.27 billion, reflecting growth rates of 11.40%, 10.31%, and 28.03% respectively [5] Valuation Recovery Potential - Following a valuation compression at the end of 2024, Supermicro's current forward EV/EBITDA of 16 is below historical levels, with expectations for recovery to at least 25 by the end of 2025 [6] Target Price Projections - Based on optimistic EPS estimates for FY2026, target prices could reach $81.25, indicating a 30% upside potential from current levels [8] - Even with conservative estimates, a target price of $49.25 suggests that current Wall Street average target prices may be overly conservative [8] Divergent Wall Street Opinions - Citigroup analyst raised the target price for Supermicro from $37 to $52, maintaining a "neutral" rating, citing growth from AI server demand [9] - In contrast, Bank of America analyst initiated coverage with an "underperform" rating and a target price of $35, highlighting concerns over profit margin pressures and increased competition [9] - Overall, 14 Wall Street analysts have a consensus rating of "moderate buy" for Supermicro, with a mix of buy, hold, and sell recommendations [9]