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威高骨科:1H25 略低于预期,健康的中期增长前景仍在
2025-08-28 02:12
Summary of Shandong Weigao Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shandong Weigao (1066.HK) - **Industry**: China Healthcare - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight - **Price Target**: HK$6.40 - **Current Price (as of August 27, 2025)**: HK$6.49 - **Market Capitalization**: HK$29,350 million - **Fiscal Year Ending**: December Key Financial Results - **1H25 Sales**: Rmb6.64 billion, a slight decrease of 0.1% YoY, and 3% below Morgan Stanley estimates [7] - **Recurring Net Profit**: Rmb967 million, down 12.7% YoY, and 8% below estimates [7] - **Gross Profit Margin**: Fell by 1.2 percentage points YoY due to foreign exchange fluctuations and VBP pricing pressure [7] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Decreased by 14% YoY to Rmb882 million, attributed to FX losses and slower accounts receivable collection [7] - **Interim Dividend**: HK$9.69 cents per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 44% [7] Segment Performance - **General Consumables**: Increased by 0.2% YoY, but operating profit margin (OPM) fell by 3.1 percentage points due to FX and VBP impacts [2] - **Pharma Packaging**: Flat performance; prefilled syringes grew by 3-5%, while auto-injectors surged by 200% from a small base [2] - **Ortho Segment**: Decreased by 1.6%, but OPM improved by 9 percentage points YoY due to sales model transition [2] - **Interventional Consumables**: Slipped by 2.0% [2] - **Blood Management**: Grew by 8.1% [2] - **Overseas Sales**: Grew faster at 4% YoY, accounting for 24% of group revenue, with US growth at approximately 10% excluding a Rmb20 million tariff impact [2] Growth Outlook - **Mid-term CAGR Target**: Unchanged at over 10% [3] - **2025 Revenue Growth Expectation**: Likely to be in the mid-single to high-single digits percentage range [3] - **General Consumables Growth**: Expected to be around 10% in 2025, supported by anesthesia ramp-up and manageable VBP impact [3] - **Pharma Packaging Growth**: Anticipated to deliver over 10% CAGR in the mid-term, driven by pre-filled syringes and auto-injectors [3] - **New Product Launches**: Expected to benefit other segments, including Cleaner Vac and plasma surgical tools [3] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Discounted cash flow with a WACC of 13.0% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [8] - **Upside Risks**: Better-than-expected core business performance, favorable government policies, and successful product rollouts [10] - **Downside Risks**: Regulatory headwinds, intense industry competition, and underperformance in orthopedics and interventional devices [10] Additional Insights - **Stock Performance**: 52-week range was HK$3.96 to HK$7.39 [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimates**: Expected EPS for 2025 is Rmb0.49, with a gradual increase projected for subsequent years [4] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Expected to decline slightly from 9.2% in 2025 to 8.8% in 2027 [4] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Shandong Weigao's financial performance, segment results, growth outlook, valuation, and associated risks.