Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU) is one of the top stocks in Michael Burry’s stock portfolio. On October 6, an analyst at Jefferies reiterated an ‘Underperform’ rating on the stock and cut the price target to $120 from $150. Jefferies Cuts Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) Price Target Even as Wall Street Expects Sales Growth Eric Broder Van Dyke/Shutterstock.com The price target cut comes amid concerns that the company is facing the same challenges that Under Armour faced between 2015 and 2025, inc ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry is focusing on brand-building initiatives and promotional efforts to enhance consumer engagement, driven by strong demand for activewear and wellness-oriented products [1][5] - Companies are leveraging product innovation, expanding athleisure collections, and investing in e-commerce and omnichannel strategies to capitalize on the growing trend towards healthy lifestyles [1][3] Challenges - The industry is facing persistent headwinds such as rising input and logistics costs, supply-chain disruptions, and elevated selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses, which are pressuring profit margins [2][7] - Macroeconomic factors including currency fluctuations, geopolitical uncertainty, and changes in tax and tariff policies are adding complexity to the operating environment [2][7] Future Outlook - Sustainable growth in the industry will depend on continued innovation, upgrades to digital infrastructure, and enhanced consumer engagement [3][5] - Established players like NIKE, Adidas, Skechers, Birkenstock, and Wolverine are well-positioned to navigate challenges and seize long-term opportunities [3][5] Consumer Demand Trends - There is a strong and steady consumer demand for athletic and athleisure products, projected to continue through 2025, with a growing appetite for performance and style [5] - The health and wellness movement is influencing buying patterns, leading to increased popularity of versatile, multi-functional footwear designs [5] E-Commerce Investments - Digital channels are a major growth engine for the athleisure market, with brands expanding their online presence through websites and social media [6] - Investments in supply-chain efficiency and fulfillment enhancements are critical for maintaining competitive advantages [6] Cost Headwinds - Companies are grappling with elevated costs due to commodity price inflation, supply-chain bottlenecks, and increased logistics expenses [7] - Higher SG&A expenses are driven by increased spending on marketing and digital initiatives, compounded by economic uncertainties and a challenging labor market [7] Industry Performance - The Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry has underperformed compared to the broader Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500, with a collective decline of 6.4% over the past year [12] - The industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 58, placing it in the top 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating positive earnings outlooks for constituent companies [9][10] Valuation - The industry is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.96X, higher than the S&P 500's 23.02X and the sector's 20.24X [13] Notable Companies - **Skechers**: Focused on a multi-brand approach and e-commerce growth, with a projected sales growth of 8.2% for 2025 [18] - **Wolverine**: Emphasizing brand structure and efficiency, with expected sales growth of 6.5% and earnings growth of 46.2% for 2025 [22] - **NIKE**: Implementing a Consumer Direct Acceleration strategy, with projected declines in sales and earnings for fiscal 2026 [25] - **Adidas**: Benefiting from strong demand and improved margins, with projected sales growth of 13.8% and earnings growth of 86.5% for 2025 [29] - **Birkenstock**: Focused on high-quality products and DTC channels, with projected sales growth of 26.9% and earnings growth of 39.6% for fiscal 2025 [33]

Company Overview - Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) is valued at a market cap of $19.9 billion and is recognized as a premium athletic apparel brand, particularly known for yoga wear, leggings, and performance-focused lifestyle products [1] - LULU is classified as a "large-cap" stock, benefiting from premium, innovative products, a strong brand reputation, customer loyalty, and a robust retail presence, which contribute to its competitive edge in the athletic apparel market [2] Stock Performance - LULU stock has experienced a significant decline of 61.3% from its 52-week high of $423.32 reached on January 30, and has dipped 36.6% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which returned 8.2% during the same period [3] - Over the past 52 weeks, LULU shares have dropped 33.7%, significantly trailing the S&P 500's 18.9% increase, and on a year-to-date basis, LULU has declined 57.1%, while the S&P 500 has surged 11.1% [4] Financial Results - In its fiscal 2025 second-quarter results released on September 4, Lululemon reported a 7% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.5 billion, with earnings per share of $3.10, surpassing analyst expectations [5] - Despite the revenue growth, Lululemon faced challenges with a 4% decline in U.S. comparable sales and a decrease in gross margin to 58.5%, attributed to markdowns and tariff-related costs [5] Future Outlook - Following the earnings release, Lululemon lowered its full-year revenue forecast to $10.85–$11 billion and adjusted EPS expectations to $12.77–$12.97, citing weak U.S. demand and increased tariffs, which led to an 18.6% drop in shares in the subsequent trading session [6] - In comparison, Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) has outperformed LULU, gaining 5.9% over the past 52 weeks, although it has seen a 1.9% decline year-to-date [6] Analyst Ratings - LULU has a consensus rating of "Hold" from 31 analysts, with a mean price target of $205.08, indicating a potential premium of 25.1% from current market prices [7]