Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - The list of candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair has narrowed down, including Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Scott Bessent, David Malpass, and Christopher Waller [1][2] - Trump is reportedly growing impatient with Powell's stance on interest rates and is expected to make a decision soon, despite Powell's term ending in May 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Kevin Warsh - Warsh was once a leading candidate for the position, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 and acted as a liaison during the 2008 financial crisis [1][2] - He has recently criticized the Fed's current policies and called for a "strategic reset" to restore credibility [2] Group 3: Christopher Waller - Waller is noted for being the first Federal Reserve Governor to advocate for a rate cut in July, believing that any inflation caused by tariffs would not be persistent [3] - His candidacy is seen as weakened due to his vote to maintain interest rates in the last meeting [3] Group 4: Scott Bessent - Bessent, the current Treasury Secretary, has expressed a desire to remain in his position but has not ruled out the possibility of becoming the next Fed Chair [4][5] - He has a long-standing reputation in the investment management industry and has previously led a macro-focused hedge fund [5] Group 5: David Malpass - Malpass has been an advocate for rate cuts to stimulate growth, arguing that the Fed's economic forecasts are overly pessimistic [6] - He has a background in economics and has held significant positions in both the Treasury and the World Bank [6] Group 6: Kevin Hassett - Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, has a close relationship with Trump and has recently stated that the Fed should take action to lower rates [7][8] - He has indicated that current inflation is at a four-year low and believes that growth is in a favorable position [8]

Group 1 - The euro is experiencing significant trading volume in the foreign exchange options market, with over $56 billion traded, indicating strong investor sentiment towards the euro's appreciation [1] - The surge in euro call options suggests a growing belief that the euro will break above 1.20 against the dollar, driven by factors such as the US-EU trade tensions and concerns over US fiscal policy [1][3] - The euro has strengthened against almost all G10 currencies, rising over 15% from its February lows, as market confidence in the eurozone improves [5] Group 2 - The chief strategist at Mizuho Securities highlights that if trade channels are significantly closed by the US, the eurozone could become the largest economy outside the US, attracting more investment into the euro [3] - The market sentiment towards the euro is at its highest since early 2024, with hedge funds showing the lowest bearish sentiment since April [3][4] - The upcoming speech by the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is anticipated to be a potential catalyst for further euro strength [5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou updated a stock prediction model, forecasting a rise in the stock market for the second half of the year [1] - The model uses six signals: economic momentum, price momentum, volume, value, positioning, and fund flows, indicating a high probability of the S&P 500 index increasing [1][3] - The current probability of a decline in the S&P 500 index is only 4%, significantly lower than the critical threshold of 25% [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index is approaching historical highs, with fund flows being the most supportive signal for a market increase [3] - Recent data shows that stock funds experienced outflows while bond funds saw inflows, indicating a cautious stance among investors [3] - Retail investors are not fully invested in stocks, with interest remaining low in May and only slightly improving in June [3] Group 3 - The updated model challenges traditional methods, showing that incorporating the six variables into a logistic regression model outperforms AI models and other methods, particularly in predicting market downturns [3]

Core Viewpoint - Iran denies any plans to resume nuclear negotiations with the United States, undermining the prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict following President Trump's suggestion that an agreement could be reached as early as next week [1] Group 1: Diplomatic Relations - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that there are currently no agreements or discussions regarding new negotiations, dismissing speculation about resuming talks [1] - President Trump indicated that discussions could take place next week, marking the first such meeting since U.S. military actions disrupted diplomatic efforts regarding Iran's nuclear program [1] Group 2: Nuclear Program and Inspections - Zarif rejected requests from UN inspectors to assess the damage to nuclear facilities caused by U.S. and Israeli bombings, describing the losses as "significant and serious" [2] - Iran is currently not planning to host IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, and has continued to block IAEA access even after a ceasefire [3] - A new law in Iran has suspended all cooperation with the IAEA, raising concerns about the verification of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, which Israel and its allies fear could be used for nuclear weapons [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's launch of the YU7 SUV has significantly boosted its stock price and is expected to drive strong sales and market positioning in the electric vehicle sector [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Response - Xiaomi's YU7 SUV saw a stock price increase of 8% and reached a historical high following its launch, with over 200,000 pre-orders within 3 minutes and nearly 290,000 within 1 hour [1]. - The YU7 is positioned as a "luxury high-performance" SUV, featuring a top range of 760 kilometers, acceleration from 0 to 100 km/h in 3.23 seconds, and equipped with advanced features such as laser radar [1]. - Analysts are optimistic about the YU7's performance, with Citigroup suggesting that Tesla may need to lower prices and offer additional features to compete in the Chinese market [1]. Group 2: Financial Projections and Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley predicts that Xiaomi's revenue could reach 1 trillion yuan and net profit 100 billion yuan by 2030, with a target market capitalization of 2.5 trillion yuan [2]. - Bank of America views the YU7's pricing as reasonable and expects it to outperform Tesla's Model Y, maintaining a buy rating with a target price of 66 HKD [2]. - The YU7 launch is seen as a critical validation of Xiaomi's automotive capabilities, especially following regulatory scrutiny after the SU7 incident [2]. Group 3: Strategic Vision and Market Positioning - Lei Jun, Xiaomi's CEO, views the YU7 as a significant step in the company's automotive strategy, likening it to past challenges against Apple and now targeting Tesla [2]. - Xiaomi has committed to investing 200 billion yuan over the next five years to establish itself as a leader in the global smart device market [2]. - The company's market capitalization has increased by over 70% this year, making it one of the best-performing large-cap stocks in the Asia-Pacific region [2].

Core Viewpoint - The White House indicated that the decision to nominate the next Federal Reserve Chair is not imminent, which has led to a significant decline in the dollar's value [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Nomination - The White House stated that the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair will not be made immediately, despite President Trump's potential plans to announce a new nominee this summer [2] - Trump has reportedly identified "three to four" candidates to replace Powell, expressing frustration over Powell's performance [2] - Potential candidates include Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller, with Waller recently supporting a rate cut in contrast to Powell's cautious stance [2] Group 2: Dollar Value and Economic Implications - The dollar fell by 0.7% against a basket of currencies, reaching its lowest level since early 2022, influenced by speculation regarding the Fed Chair nomination [2][3] - The dollar has declined over 10% this year amid concerns about trade wars, debt sustainability, and threats to the Fed's independence [4] - Analysts suggest that if a nominee more aligned with Trump's desire for rate cuts is appointed, it could further weaken the dollar [3][4] Group 3: Concerns Over Fed Independence - Concerns are raised about the potential political influence on the Federal Reserve, which could undermine its independence and lead to economic instability [5] - Historical precedents indicate that political pressure on the Fed can result in negative economic outcomes, as seen during Nixon's presidency [5] - A recent OMFIF survey revealed that 70% of central bank reserve managers are reducing their dollar holdings due to the current political environment in the U.S. [5]

自中国香港颁布《稳定币条例》、美国通过《稳定币法案》以来，围绕稳定币的监管框架及对国际货币 体系影响的讨论持续升温。然而，稳定币的稳定性仍存在认知误区。 据Choice数据，近1个月内有超140篇研报涉及"稳定币"。稳定币是一种与特定稳定资产挂钩的加密货 币，但其市场交易量占比仍偏低。国泰海通证券梁中华团队指出，稳定币价值并非绝对稳定，而是相对 稳定，存在技术性脱锚风险和锚定资产波动影响。 国际清算银行（BIS）也在其年度经济报告中专设一章探讨"下一代货币和金融体系前景"，直言稳定币 在单一性、弹性和完整性三大关键测试中表现不佳，无法成为货币体系支柱，仅能发挥辅助作用。 据了解，天风国际证券的证券交易牌照已完成升级，新增虚拟资产交易服务功能。此前，国泰君安国际 获得香港首张中资券商虚拟资产全牌照，消息引发资本市场的强烈反应，不仅提高了稳定币概念的市场 热度，相关券商股价也出现大幅波动。 华创证券首席分析师徐康指出，国泰君安国际的"1号牌升级"获批进度超预期，预计后续更多中资券商 将完成类似升级，完善市场生态。目前，已有30余家券商获批将现有证券交易牌照升级为可提供虚拟资 产交易服务的牌照。招商证券国际等多家中 ...

Group 1 - Investors are fleeing U.S. long-term bond funds at the fastest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic began five years ago, with nearly $11 billion in net outflows in the second quarter, marking a stark contrast to the previous 12 quarters' average inflow of $20 billion [1] - The outflow reflects deep anxiety regarding the U.S. fiscal path, as the proposed tax reform is expected to add trillions to the national debt over the next decade, leading to a significant increase in bond issuance [1][2] - The current environment is characterized by high volatility and inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, causing panic in the long end of the yield curve and general unease among investors [2] Group 2 - Long-term bonds are particularly sensitive to inflation, as rising prices erode the real value of fixed interest payments, leading to a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury prices by approximately 1% this quarter [2] - In contrast, over $39 billion flowed into short-term U.S. Treasury funds this quarter, as these funds offer attractive yields amid the Federal Reserve's high short-term interest rates [2] - Investors may prefer to diversify their bond holdings globally, but the U.S. Treasury market is not expected to lose its status as a core asset in global fixed income portfolios [3]

来源：深网腾讯新闻 图源：视觉中国 文丨雅萱 编辑丨叶锦言 出品丨深网·腾讯新闻小满工作室 发布一个月后，小米集团创始人雷军于6月26日正式公布小米首款SUV小米YU7的价格，其中，标准版起售价25.35万元，Pro版售价27.99万元；Max版售 价32.99万元。 在这个价格段内，聚集着Model Y、智界R7、乐道L60、理想L6，极氪7X、阿维塔07、全新智己LS6和即将上市的理想纯电SUV理想i6等多款车型。 据Focus2move数据显示，2024年全年，特斯拉 Model Y全球销量109万辆，同比下滑1.2%。 理想创始人李想日前在社交平台"预祝小米YU7大卖"时，特意为理想纯电SUV做了预热，"雷总提到6座SUV，即将在7月下旬上市的理想i8就是一款三排 六座纯电SUV。" 就在小米YU7正式公布价格的当天，鸿蒙智行官方宣布，智界品牌旗下全系车型启动购车补贴。6月27日起至7月31日，下定用户可立减2万元现金，并享 最高价值6万元的购车权益。官方补贴后，智界R7增程版售价降至22.98万-29.98万元；智界R7纯电版售价降至23.98万-31.98万元。 显而易见，定价25.35万起的小米 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Performance - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97 for the first time since March 2022, closing down 0.37% at 97.35 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2390%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.7280% [2] - U.S. GDP for the first quarter was unexpectedly revised down, while initial jobless claims and personal consumption data were positive for gold prices, which closed at $3327.68 per ounce, down 0.17% [2] - WTI crude oil rose 0.43% to $65.16 per barrel, and Brent crude increased 0.47% to $67.91 per barrel due to rising demand [3] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Xiaomi launched its SUV, YU7, starting at 253,500 yuan, with over 289,000 units reserved within an hour [8] - Honor has taken a significant step towards an A-share IPO by obtaining listing counseling registration from the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau [8] - The new domestically developed general-purpose processor, Loongson 3C6000, was officially released [8] Group 3: Stock Market Movements - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.61% to 24,325.4 points, with a trading volume of 261.729 billion HKD [4] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.48%, with total trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan [4] - The U.S. stock market saw the Dow Jones rise 0.9%, the Nasdaq increase by 0.97%, and the S&P 500 up by 0.8%, nearing its historical high of 6147.43 [3]