Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is at a critical juncture of stagflation, characterized by slowing economic growth and high inflation, primarily driven by Trump's tariff policies [1] Economic Predictions - GDP growth is expected to be halved to approximately 1.2% by 2025, down from a peak of 3.1% in Q3 2024 [2] - Inflation is projected to hover around 3% by the end of the year, significantly up from the 2.4% forecast prior to the tariffs [3] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to over 5% by 2026, increasing from the current 4.2% [4] - There is a 25% probability of recession within the next 12 months, a shift from previous expectations of no recession prior to the tariffs [5]

这位财政部长还重申了他5月份向国会领导人发出的指导意见，即他们必须尽快在预定的8月休会前采取 行动，提高或暂停债务上限。 周三致众议院议长迈克·约翰逊及其他国会领导人的这封信是必要的，因为财政部此前的"债务发行暂停 期"——一个授权其动用特别会计措施以维持在债务上限内的声明将于6月27日到期。 美国财政部长贝森特告知美国国会议员，他将把最新的实施特别会计措施的期限延长到2025年7月24 日，以保持债务不会突破上限。 "X日"的估算 贝森特曾表示，他相信国会可以在7月4日前完成该法案，届时政府"可以完成自特朗普总统于4月2日宣 布对数十个国家征收所谓对等关税以来一直在进行的贸易协议"。 特朗普本人则建议，议员们应该被锁在一个房间里，放弃他们的假期来完成这项法案。 独立分析师估计，财政部至少可以将其支付需求管理到8月份。摩根大通的策略师最近表示，他们对所 谓的"X日"——即财政部耗尽其及时支付所有联邦款项能力的那一天的预测是9月2日。两党政策中心则 认为，"X日"将介于8月15日至10月3日之间。 长期关注财政部账目的专家Lou Crandall在6月23日给客户的一份报告中写道，9月15日是"我们最好的猜 测 ...

Group 1 - Guotai Junan International has received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services, becoming the first Chinese broker in Hong Kong to offer comprehensive virtual asset-related trading services [1] - The company will allow clients to trade cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as stablecoins like Tether, directly on its platform [1] - The successful licensing is attributed to Guotai Junan International's early positioning in the digital finance and virtual asset business, with plans to launch virtual asset spot ETF-based structured products in 2024 and to distribute tokenized securities in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the new license will open up direct participation channels for investors in cryptocurrency trading, potentially boosting the business growth of related fintech companies [2] - Following the announcement, digital currency concept stocks surged, with notable increases in companies like Jida Zhengyuan and Geer Software [2] - Currently, there are 40 institutions approved to provide virtual asset trading services through comprehensive accounts, with several other Chinese brokers actively applying for similar upgrades [2] Group 3 - Hong Kong is positioning itself as a global hub for virtual assets, with stablecoins becoming a focal point as traditional financial institutions actively enter the virtual asset space [3] - The Hong Kong government announced that the Stablecoin Regulation will take effect on August 1, 2025, requiring licenses for issuing fiat-backed stablecoins [3] - Research indicates that traditional financial institutions are forming alliances with virtual asset exchanges to provide cryptocurrency trading services, which could enhance the valuation of brokers [3]

Group 1 - Global large investors are preparing for the traditional trading lull with unusual caution due to oil price volatility risks and potential tariff impacts, which could disrupt market complacency and lead to a repeat of last August's market crash [1] - As the July 9 deadline for US-EU tariff negotiations approaches, asset management firms are increasing portfolio protection, with a lack of consensus on baseline tax rates suggesting that blind optimism regarding trade risks may not last [1] - HSBC's Chief Investment Officer, Xavier Baraton, expressed concerns that the optimistic expectations priced into the market may fall short in the next three months, prompting strategies such as buying put options to hedge risks [1] Group 2 - The market's calm trading environment is partly attributed to the relationship between VIX and risk asset prices, influenced by automated trading funds that buy stocks when VIX declines and sell when it rises, which was a factor in last August's flash crash [2] - Royal London Asset Management's multi-asset head, Trevor Greetham, noted that while their automated systems are signaling stock purchases, fund managers have opted to sell some stocks to manage portfolio risk [2] - UBS's European equity strategy head, Gerry Fowler, indicated that options pricing suggests traders are betting on increased daily stock market volatility, warning that this summer may not be an ideal time for vacations due to various catalysts [3]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is not prepared to yield to Trump's immediate interest rate cut demands, indicating that certain conditions must be met for a change in stance [1] - Powell emphasizes the need to observe inflation data before deciding on interest rate cuts, particularly in light of high tariffs potentially raising inflation temporarily [2][3] - The upcoming June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is critical; a month-over-month increase of 0.2% or higher could delay rate cuts until September, while a low increase like May's 0.1% could reignite July cut expectations [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is tasked with maintaining low inflation while also ensuring a strong job market, with Powell suggesting that significant deterioration in employment could prompt earlier or more aggressive rate cuts [3] - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, signs of stress in the job market are emerging, including a slowdown in hiring and an increase in unemployment claims [3]

Group 1 - Trump expressed sympathy for Ukraine's President Zelensky during their meeting, describing it as "very friendly" while adopting a tougher stance towards Russia [1][2] - The discussion highlighted the urgency of rebuilding the U.S. defense industrial base, emphasizing that the U.S. and its allies cannot rely on foreign adversaries for critical minerals [2] - Trump mentioned that Washington is considering providing more Patriot missiles to Ukraine, despite the needs of the U.S. and Israel [4] Group 2 - The ongoing conflict has seen a significant increase in Russian drone production, with over 4,342 "Shahed" drones launched in June alone, potentially exceeding 5,000 by the end of the month [2] - The situation on the battlefield is dire, with claims of 7,000 casualties among Ukrainian and Russian forces last week, although this figure remains unverified [3] - Zelensky has requested Trump to sell more weapons to Ukraine, particularly more U.S.-made Patriot missile defense systems to protect the war-torn nation's airspace [3]

Core Viewpoint - Trump is increasingly dissatisfied with the Federal Reserve's inaction on interest rate cuts, prompting him to consider announcing his choice for the next Fed chair earlier than expected [1][2]. Group 1: Potential Candidates - Trump is considering several candidates for the next Fed chair, including former Fed governor Kevin Walsh, National Economic Council director Hassett, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, former World Bank president Malpass, and current Fed governor Waller [1][2][6]. - Walsh is viewed as a leading contender, having previously discussed the position with Trump, while Hassett has expressed disinterest in the role [3][5]. - Mnuchin's ability to navigate chaotic tariff policies has made him popular on Wall Street, and he has not ruled out the idea of becoming Fed chair [5][6]. Group 2: Implications of Early Announcement - Announcing a new Fed chair earlier than the usual transition period could allow the nominee to influence market expectations regarding future interest rate paths [2][7]. - However, this approach carries risks, as the incoming chair may face challenges in publicly criticizing future Fed colleagues and could be perceived as a sycophant by market participants [7][8]. Group 3: Current Fed Chair's Position - Current Fed chair Powell has reiterated that political considerations will not influence Fed decisions and emphasized a cautious approach to potential rate cuts [2][10]. - Powell has not indicated whether he will leave the Fed board after his term ends, focusing instead on maintaining economic strength and controlling inflation [10].

Core Insights - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has issued a directive allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to officially consider cryptocurrencies as an asset in single-family mortgage risk assessments [1][2] - This marks the first time cryptocurrencies have been integrated into the core U.S. housing loan system, aligning with the vision of making the U.S. a global hub for cryptocurrency [1] - The directive requires that only digital assets stored in U.S. regulated centralized exchanges and verifiable can be considered, and it mandates the development of internal adjustment plans to manage market volatility [2] Group 1 - The directive aims to broaden the dimensions of credit assessment for borrowers, potentially opening financing opportunities for more homebuyers [3] - It recognizes cryptocurrencies as a mainstream investment option alongside stocks and bonds, which could significantly alter the lending landscape [3] - The policy is expected to expand the pool of qualified buyers by allowing individuals who previously had to liquidate crypto assets to meet credit standards to now qualify for loans directly [3] Group 2 - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were placed under government control in September 2008, are crucial to the U.S. housing market, backing approximately $12 trillion in home loans [3] - The acceptance of cryptocurrencies as collateral could lead to significant changes in banking rules and practices, particularly in how lenders assess borrower qualifications [3] - The U.S. housing market has been struggling since early 2022, with mortgage rates rising and home sales hitting a nearly 30-year low, indicating a challenging environment for potential homebuyers [3]

Group 1 - Trump announced that the U.S. will hold talks with Iran next week and does not believe a nuclear agreement is necessary [3][10] - Nvidia's market capitalization reached a historic high of $3.75 trillion [3][12] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 94.20 billion in the market due to the Hong Kong dollar hitting the weak end of the peg [3][12] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Reserve proposed to relax the supplementary leverage ratio requirements for large banks [3][12] - The housing regulator in the U.S. plans to accept cryptocurrencies as collateral for mortgages [3][12] - OPEC+ may consider increasing oil production if deemed necessary, with Russia willing to support this at the upcoming meeting [3][12] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.23% at 24,474.67 points, marking a three-month high [5] - The A-share market saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04% and the ChiNext Index up 3.11% [5] - The financial sector in Hong Kong and mainland China showed strong performance, particularly in insurance and securities [5]

Group 1 - President Trump emphasized the need for NATO members to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, claiming that most members are now expected to contribute this amount [1] - Trump attributed the commitment to increase defense spending to his influence, similar to his role in recent agreements between Pakistan and India [1] - Trump criticized Spain for not paying more than 2% of its defense costs and expressed intentions to negotiate higher tariffs on Spanish goods [1] Group 2 - EU officials anticipate that the U.S. will retain some tariffs even after trade negotiations conclude, although it remains unclear if this will provoke a response from the EU [2] - Trump claimed success in the U.S. strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, asserting that the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, at least temporarily [2] - Trump mentioned upcoming talks with Iran, suggesting the possibility of signing an agreement, but expressed skepticism about the necessity of such an agreement [2]