Group 1: Market Trends - Lithium carbonate main contract hit a historical low of 58,400 yuan/ton but rebounded to 61,640 yuan/ton during the day, closing at 60,700 yuan/ton, a 3.06% increase [1] - The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 59,900 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade averaged 58,300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] - The trading volume of warehouse receipts decreased to 22,375 lots, down 4,404 lots from the previous day, indicating strong buying intent [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market remains in a state of oversupply, with abundant circulating sources and low purchasing willingness from downstream material companies [1][2] - Major lithium salt companies maintain firm pricing due to high long-term contract orders, while smaller companies face price reductions due to inventory pressure [2] - The demand for ternary materials is weak, with companies facing losses due to high costs of raw materials [2] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - New Lake Futures suggests that the recent price rebound is unlikely to be sustained, with overall supply pressure remaining high and no significant demand improvement expected [3] - Jinrui Futures indicates that the expectation of oversupply has not changed, with insufficient upward drivers for prices [4] - Dadi Futures warns that without significant supply disruptions, it is hard to believe lithium prices will stop falling or recover [5][6]

Group 1: Market Trends - The main contract for container shipping on the European route opened lower and fell to a low of 1750.0 points, marking the lowest level since May 16, with a closing price of 1772.0 points, down 7% for the fourth consecutive trading day [1] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (Europe route) reported 1937.14 points, an increase of 14.1% compared to the previous period, indicating support for near-term prices [1] - The SCFIS index for the US route saw a significant decline of 28.4%, which may negatively impact overall market sentiment [1] Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - Shipping companies have begun issuing price increase notices for July, showing a high increase compared to June's price levels, but Maersk's price reduction to $3100 for major European ports has led to other companies following suit [1] - The average price for European routes has narrowed to approximately $3300 per container, indicating a need for ongoing monitoring of price adjustments by shipping companies [1] - Analysts expect that the price increases for July may not be as optimistic due to the actual implementation levels and Maersk's price adjustments, leading to a potential further convergence of prices in early July [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Institutions predict that the price trend may initially face downward pressure before gradually recovering, with market sentiment remaining weak due to expectations of price peaks [3] - The overall price is expected to remain volatile, influenced by the weak expectations for July price increases and ongoing developments in the geopolitical situation [4] - The supply-demand dynamics, including port congestion and the potential for increased capacity in the North American routes, contribute to the uncertainty in European route pricing [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Cotton prices have shown a strong upward movement recently, but there are no substantial factors to support a sustained bullish trend in the market [1][3][4] Supply and Demand - Domestic cotton inventory in Xinjiang continues to decline, and transportation costs have decreased, leading to increased basis quotes from traders [1] - The demand from textile factories is weak, with a significant amount of cotton (estimated over 400,000 tons) yet to be priced, which may provide short-term support for cotton prices [1][2] - Weaker terminal demand has resulted in rising inventory levels for spinning enterprises, causing a decrease in their operating rates [2][4] Market Outlook - Institutions like Everbright Futures suggest that the likelihood of cotton prices maintaining a strong performance is low due to weak demand and sufficient inventory levels across the supply chain [3][4] - The market is currently facing pressure from a strong resistance level around 13,620 yuan/ton, which has been tested multiple times [3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with potential risks accumulating due to declining spinning rates and rumors of increased import cotton quotas [5]

在以色列同意特朗普提出的与伊朗停火的建议后，SC原油多个合约触及跌停并封跌停板，其中主力合 约收跌9%，报收518.6元/桶，跌至一周以来的最低水平，伊以停火缓解了人们对中东石油供应中断的担 忧。 特朗普在其社交媒体发文表示，以色列和伊朗已同意全面停火。此前，伊朗象征性报复了美军在卡塔尔 的军事基地，并未造成人员伤亡。地缘局势快速转变，导致油价巨幅波动，WTI原油价格回到冲突爆发 前的震荡区间。预计市场在适当剔除地缘风险溢价之后，将重新回到此前多因素交织形成的波动模式。 Phillip Nova高级市场分析师Priyanka Sachdeva表示："如果停火协议按照宣布的那样得到遵守，投资者 可能会预期油价将恢复正常。展望未来，以色列和伊朗遵守最近宣布的停火条件的程度将在决定油价方 面发挥重要作用。" IG分析师Tony Sycamore表示，有了停火的消息，上周在原油价格上形成的风险溢价仍然存在，但几乎 消失了。Sycamore还表示，从技术上讲，隔夜的抛售强化了约78.40美元（2024年10月至2025年6月的高 点）和80.77美元（今年迄今的高点）之间的阻力区间。很明显，原油要想突破这一阻力区间，原 ...

由于世界贸易的割裂和地缘政治的动荡引发了对金融流动的重新思考，掌管着全球数万亿美元央行储备 的管理者们，正考虑从美元转向黄金、欧元和中国的人民币。 根据官方货币与金融机构论坛（OMFIF）周二晚些时候发布的一份报告，在剔除计划减持的央行后， 管理着合计5万亿美元资产的央行中，有三分之一的央行计划在未来一到两年内增加对黄金的敞口，这 是至少五年来的最高比例。 这项于3月至5月期间对75家央行进行的调查，首次揭示了美国总统特朗普4月2日"解放日"关税所带来的 影响，该关税曾引发市场动荡以及避险资产美元和美国国债的下滑。 黄金已受到各国央行创纪录速度的增持，而从更长远来看，其前景被进一步看好，净40%的央行计划在 未来十年内增加黄金持有量。 OMFIF表示，"在经历了多年创纪录的央行购金之后，储备管理者们正在加倍押注这种贵金属。" 这将意味着欧元在货币储备中的份额将从目前的约20%恢复到约25%，这对从那场曾威胁到欧元生存的 债务危机中复苏的欧元区来说，是一个关键时刻。 瑞银资产管理全球主权市场策略与咨询主管Max Castelli表示，在"解放日"之后，储备管理者们打了很 多电话来询问美元的避险地位是否处于危险之 ...

以色列国防部长伊斯拉埃尔·卡茨（Israel Katz）周二表示，在伊朗违反停火协议、再次向以色列发射导 弹后，他已命令军方对德黑兰发动袭击。在以色列威胁要进行报复之后，多个伊朗官方媒体否认伊朗违 反停火协议。 据伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台，伊朗否认在停火后向以色列发射导弹。伊朗学生通讯社也称，关于在 停火生效后伊朗对以色列发动导弹袭击的新闻是虚假的。 与此同时，市场消息显示，伊朗国家安全委员会最高委员会发布关于"对犹太敌人和其邪恶支持者实施 停火"的声明。据伊朗媒体Fars News，伊朗国家安全委员会最高委员会表示，胜利迫使以色列单方面接 受失败并停止其侵略。伊朗武装部队不信任敌人的话，并将时刻对任何进一步的侵略行为做出反应。 早些时候，以色列军方表示，他们确认了伊朗向以色列发射的导弹。最初的评估称，伊朗发射了两枚导 弹，并很快被拦截。以色列随后表示，他们将以武力进行报复，并袭击德黑兰市中心的政权目标。以色 列与伊朗之间的战争已持续了12天。 卡茨称："鉴于伊朗公然违反美国总统宣布的停火协议——向以色列发射导弹——并且根据以色列政府 对任何违约行为进行强力回应的政策，我已指示以色列国防军（IDF）……继续 ...

Group 1 - Tom Lee, a seasoned investor, noted that the market's mild reaction to the U.S. bombing of Iran was not surprising, as major stock indices remained stable despite the conflict [1] - The S&P 500 index has maintained over 20% returns for two consecutive years, and after a significant drop in April, it has rebounded nearly 20% since early April [2] - Lee emphasized that the current market performance suggests a positive outlook for the stock market in the second half of the year, as it has passed a stress test without significant declines [2] Group 2 - Lee observed that while speculative trends are emerging, the market is not as tense as it was during the speculative frenzy of 2021, indicating a healthier macroeconomic environment [3] - He believes that the visibility of tariffs and regulatory changes provides opportunities for unexpected positive surprises in the market [3] - Lee expressed optimism about the stock market, suggesting that with cash on the sidelines, there is potential for upward movement [4]

Group 1 - Global stock markets experienced a moderate increase as investors processed President Trump's announcement regarding the ceasefire timeline between Iran and Israel, alongside signs of growing fatigue towards Trump's policy-making [1] - The MSCI World Index, tracking over a thousand large and mid-sized companies across 23 developed markets, rose by 0.24% as of Tuesday's European session [1] - U.S. stock index futures also saw slight gains, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up by 0.71%, S&P 500 futures rising by 0.74%, and Nasdaq 100 futures increasing by 0.98% [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment remains relatively subdued, reflecting a potential desensitization to Trump's policy changes, as noted by Hugh Dive, Chief Investment Officer at Atlas Funds Management [1][2] - The response from Iran to U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities has been largely restrained, with reports indicating no casualties from a missile attack on a U.S. airbase in Qatar [1] - Since the tariff policy changes in April, subsequent market fluctuations triggered by policy changes have been diminishing in intensity [1] Group 3 - The de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East was anticipated, with Iran's Foreign Minister suggesting readiness to cease hostilities despite denying acceptance of a ceasefire mediated by the U.S. [3] - Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush Securities, expressed optimism that the reported ceasefire represents the best possible outcome for Wall Street, predicting a market rise following Tuesday's opening [3] - In a typical peace period, safe-haven assets faced selling pressure, with spot gold dropping over 1% to around $3,320 per ounce, although it remains at historical highs [3]

Group 1 - The core issue is the status of Iran's enriched uranium reserves, which are reportedly intact and under Iranian control, posing a significant challenge to preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons [1][2] - Iran possesses enough material to potentially manufacture approximately 10 nuclear weapons, raising concerns about its nuclear capabilities [1] - U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance and Senator Markwayne Mullin, assert that intelligence indicates Iran did not transfer nuclear materials prior to U.S. airstrikes on the Fordo facility, contradicting claims from Israel and Iran [2] Group 2 - The Fordo facility, located 300 feet underground in the southwestern mountains of Tehran, was targeted in a recent U.S. airstrike, which President Trump claimed had "completely destroyed" Iran's main uranium enrichment facilities [2] - Senator Mullin emphasized that even if the facilities were not entirely destroyed, the U.S. has significantly impaired Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons, indicating a high level of confidence in the intelligence regarding the targets [2] - There are indications that the U.S. may engage in more sustained military actions against Iran, potentially in collaboration with allies like Israel, to ensure the complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear capabilities [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that Asian tech stocks are expected to rise by 15%-20% this year, primarily driven by strong momentum in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector [1] - The report emphasizes that AI will continue to dominate the current growth cycle, with data center capital expenditure expansion in 2025 and growth certainty in 2026 reinforcing this trend [1] - The demand for automation and generative technologies in the region is a strong support for the rapid rise of AI concept stocks, which are becoming the core engine of the Asian stock market [1] Group 2 - The Bloomberg Asia Pacific Semiconductor Index has risen over 12% this year, significantly outperforming regional stock indices [1] - Major tech companies like Microsoft and Google maintain strong demand for AI memory chips, which is expected to further enhance industry prosperity [1] - Morgan Stanley recommends leading chip companies such as TSMC, SK Hynix, Advantest, and Delta Electronics, predicting that these stocks will continue to gain momentum over the next 12 months due to strong demand and upward revisions in profit expectations [1] Group 3 - The A-share market opened higher, with all three major indices rising over 1%, and the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3400 points after a week [2] - The decrease in geopolitical risk premium is expected to benefit all emerging market currencies, particularly those in Asia that rely heavily on energy imports, as falling oil prices improve trade conditions [2] - The announcement of a ceasefire led to significant fluctuations in the oil market, with WTI crude oil futures dropping over 5% following the statement [2]