Group 1 - The EU has postponed a plan to impose stricter price caps on Russian oil exports due to concerns that rising oil prices will deter US support for harsher sanctions [1] - The proposed price cap was to be lowered from $60 per barrel to $45, but the situation has become more complex following the spike in oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - Some EU countries believe that a lower price cap would only be effective with US backing, and it has become clear that the US is unwilling to support stricter sanctions against Russia [1] Group 2 - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has seemingly retreated from the proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil, indicating that the current oil price cap is functioning as intended [2] - Von der Leyen noted that the pressure to lower the oil price cap is currently minimal, reflecting the recent increase in oil prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggests that interest rates should be lowered soon, potentially as early as July, due to the diminishing threat of inflation and to address potential labor market slowdowns [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Waller believes the Federal Reserve should begin to lower rates to prevent a downturn in the labor market, advocating for proactive measures rather than reactive ones [2][3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently voted to maintain the federal funds rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, with mixed opinions among members regarding future rate changes [2][3] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of a rate cut in July, with more likely action anticipated in September [3] Group 2: Economic Context - Waller argues that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be one-time and not persistent, suggesting that the current economic data does not warrant further delay in rate adjustments [3] - Other officials are cautious about lowering rates, as they are still assessing the long-term effects of tariffs on inflation, labor markets, and overall economic growth [3][4] Group 3: Internal Dynamics of the FOMC - Waller's comments reflect internal dynamics within the FOMC, indicating a lack of consensus for a July rate cut [4] - There is speculation about whether Waller is positioning himself to advocate for a rate cut at the upcoming meeting, as he presents one of the most theoretically grounded arguments for such action [4][5]

Market Overview - The US dollar index maintained a volatile upward trend this week, supported by retail data, risk aversion, and fluctuations in US Treasury yields, closing at 98.72, potentially marking the largest weekly gain in a month [1] - Spot gold prices fell to $3353 per ounce, influenced by profit-taking and a stronger dollar, while silver prices dropped to $36 per ounce after reaching a 13-year high earlier in the week [1] - Oil prices experienced significant volatility driven by geopolitical news, with fluctuations influenced by tensions in the Middle East and US political statements [2] Investment Bank Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that geopolitical risks will elevate oil prices, suggesting a risk premium of $10 per barrel for Brent crude [5] - Citigroup expects Brent crude prices to stabilize between $70 and $80 per barrel [5] - Goldman Sachs' strategy team introduced the concept of "China's Ten Giants," including Tencent, Alibaba, and others, indicating their potential to dominate the market similar to the "Magnificent Seven" in the US [5] Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, indicating potential for two rate cuts within the year, despite internal divisions among officials [9] - The Swiss National Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to zero, becoming the first major central bank to return to a zero interest rate environment post-pandemic [13] - The Bank of Japan maintained its target rate at 0.5%, continuing its current bond reduction plan [14] Geopolitical Developments - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated, with significant military actions reported, raising concerns about potential regional war and global geopolitical shifts [6][7] - The US military has increased its presence in the region, with indications of possible military action against Iran, although diplomatic negotiations are also being explored [7][8] Regulatory Changes - The US Senate passed the "Genius Act," establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to hold equivalent cash or short-term US Treasury securities for every dollar of stablecoin issued [21] - The People's Bank of China conducted significant reverse repo operations to ensure liquidity in the market, indicating a proactive approach to managing financial stability [22] Central Bank Gold Holdings - The World Gold Council's survey indicates a rising interest among central banks in increasing gold reserves, with 95% of respondents expecting to add to their holdings in the next 12 months [23]

Group 1 - Iran is "ready" to discuss limitations on uranium enrichment but will "undoubtedly reject" zero enrichment proposals, especially in light of Israeli attacks [1] - European powers (E3) are increasingly involved as Tehran is reluctant to engage with the U.S. during Israeli strikes [1] - E3 foreign ministers plan to convey to Iran the importance of returning to negotiations on nuclear issues before worst-case scenarios occur [1][2] Group 2 - French President Macron emphasizes the necessity of prioritizing substantial negotiations, including moving towards zero uranium enrichment and addressing Iran's ballistic capabilities [2] - Following Israeli military actions, Iran has stated there is no room for negotiations with the U.S. until Israeli aggression ceases [2] - European diplomats indicate that the U.S. has signaled readiness for direct talks with Iran, contingent on Iran providing a clear signal [2][3] Group 3 - European diplomats expect no breakthroughs in the upcoming Geneva talks but stress the importance of engagement with Iran to address unresolved nuclear issues [3] - Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi expresses willingness to listen to European proposals, asserting the country's right to defend itself [3] - The German Foreign Minister states that Europe is prepared to negotiate, provided Iran commits to not developing nuclear weapons [3]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes Russia's warning to Washington against military intervention in Iran, highlighting the potential for uncontrollable escalation and severe consequences [1][2] - Russia advocates for an immediate ceasefire and the resumption of peace talks as essential steps to de-escalate the current crisis following Israel's large-scale airstrikes on Iranian facilities [1] - Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is actively engaging in discussions with foreign ministers from Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and Oman regarding the ongoing Middle East crisis [1] Group 2 - Moscow expresses full agreement with the stance that only diplomatic negotiations can lead to a lasting solution, urging Israeli leaders to cease attacks on nuclear facilities [2] - Despite the close defense and arms trade partnership between Russia and Iran, it is anticipated that Russia will not take a direct military role in defending Iran due to its involvement in the Ukraine conflict [2] - Former President Trump emphasizes that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons while denying reports of any decision to involve U.S. military forces in the situation [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials believe that Trump's policies are dragging down the economy, increasing unemployment and inflation, and unresolved tariff disputes may lead to new shocks in the coming weeks [1] - The Fed has decided to delay planned interest rate cuts until the fall, awaiting resolution on tariffs and other government priorities, and now expects a slower pace of rate cuts with higher terminal rates [1][2] - The Fed's decision contrasts with other central banks that are continuing to cut rates, highlighting the impact of Trump's early policies, particularly tariffs, on the short-term outlook of the U.S. economy [1][3] Group 2 - Powell indicated that more information regarding tariffs will be available this summer, and the Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% while predicting a significant rise in inflation by the end of the year [2] - Despite investor expectations for a rate cut in September, this largely depends on the progress of Powell's "watchful summer" regarding tariffs [3] - The Fed's recent policy statement noted that uncertainty in economic outlook has decreased since the May meeting, but the upcoming July 9 deadline for tariff agreements could quickly change the situation [3][4] Group 3 - The economic outlook has dimmed significantly compared to the Fed's previous expectations of a "soft landing," with GDP growth forecasts revised down from 2.1% to 1.4% and unemployment expected to rise to 4.5% by year-end [5][6] - Powell previously described the U.S. economy as performing "very well," but the current outlook is much less optimistic, with inflation expected to rise to 3% by year-end and remain above target levels until 2026 [6] - The Fed's decision-makers have indicated that if employment weakens, policy expectations may shift rapidly, as labor demand is softening and job creation is slowing [9]

Group 1 - Norway's unexpected interest rate cut highlights increasing investor anxiety amid geopolitical tensions, trade risks, and a volatile dollar, complicating global monetary policy and inflation predictions [1] - The Swiss National Bank also reduced borrowing costs to 0%, indicating a bleak global outlook, which surprised some market participants [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Chairman Powell acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding future rate paths, contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2 - Investors anticipate rising volatility due to geopolitical disruptions affecting the dollar and oil prices, diminishing central banks' ability to provide clear future guidance [2] - European central banks are diverging from the Fed, struggling to navigate a new era where the dollar has become weaker and more unstable under trade war pressures [3] - The dollar has declined nearly 9% against other major currencies this year, with a recent uptick following conflicts between Israel and Iran [3] Group 3 - The unexpected rate cuts from central banks may lead to a new normal characterized by increased market volatility and rapid shifts in asset pricing and narratives [3] - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly as investors seek non-dollar wealth storage, impacting import costs and pushing the economy towards deflation [4] - The Swiss franc rose against the dollar as traders deemed the Swiss National Bank's rate cut insufficient to combat deflation [5] Group 4 - Global equity market risks are rising, with options products designed to mitigate upcoming volatility appearing relatively cheap [6] - There is a focus on purchasing bonds from countries where inflation and interest rates may significantly decline, while maintaining a negative outlook on long-term U.S. and German bonds due to higher economic uncertainty [6] - Despite concerns, global equity markets remain nearly 20% higher than their lows in April, indicating resilience amid tariff-related worries [6]

Group 1 - The article suggests that traditional energy companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil may be undervalued in the context of AI investments, as they are essential for supplying the significant power demand generated by AI technologies [2][4] - Recent performance of utility stocks such as Vistra Energy and Constellation Energy indicates a rising trend, driven by the increasing electricity demand from AI and data centers [2][3] - Analysts highlight that while many companies are investing in AI, the immediate profit conversion is complex, and companies without a competitive edge may struggle to maintain margins [2][3] Group 2 - The demand for electricity is expected to surge due to AI applications in robotics, autonomous driving, and smart homes, necessitating stable local power systems [4] - The valuation of utility companies has increased significantly, with Vistra's forward P/E ratio rising from 15.5 to 25.1, and NRG Energy's from 11.3 to 18.6, indicating a reassessment of the sector [4] - Despite the rising oil prices, Chevron and ExxonMobil are still valued as traditional oil companies, with forward P/E ratios of 17 and 16, respectively, suggesting potential for significant valuation increases if their roles as AI energy suppliers are recognized [4]

在市场质疑美元稳定性的同时，欧元兑日元汇率的波幅相对于美元兑日元货币对的波动而言，正处于近 四年来的最平静水平。 "市场认为，在负面市场冲击中，美元兑日元的波动性将大于欧元兑日元，这与市场过去处理这些事件 的方式正好相反，"Brennan说。"如果真是这种想法，那就意味着市场认为欧元比美元更具避险功能。" 由于交易员因不可预测的美国政策风险而避开美元，欧元正在全球货币期权市场中扮演起更重要的角 色。 交易量出现了明显转变。根据美国存管信托和清算公司（DTCC）的数据，对比2024年最后五个月，今 年前五个月与美元兑主要货币挂钩的合约中，约有15%至30%转向了欧元。还有迹象表明，欧元正被用 作避风港，这在传统上是美元的角色。 虽然在日交易额高达7.5万亿美元的外汇市场中，涉及美元的交易仍占主导地位，但这可能是美元作为 世界储备货币正面临更激烈竞争的早期证据。在美元经历多年来最大幅度的暴跌后，交易员们正在规避 它，而欧元似乎成了主要受益者，因为该地区的市场正受益于数十亿的政府刺激支出。 "如果我们正在进入一个欧洲资金流向更重要的环境，那么我们可能也正在进入一个由欧元货币对驱动 一切的环境，"法国巴黎银行的期权策 ...

尽管日本首相石破茂与特朗普在加拿大G7峰会前夕三次通话讨论关税，但本周双方仍未达成协议。 赤泽亮正周五称，他目前尚未安排与美国同行的下一轮谈判，并说日本"不会为对话设具体死线"，且再 次将贸易磋商比作"雾中前行"——这是他在G7峰会前使用的表述。 他还暗示，中东局势紧张等事务分散了美国注意力，可能导致美方"难以为日美谈判分配足够时间推动 实质进展，双方均面临此状况，关税谈判并非唯一议程。" 在赤泽亮正表态前一日，石破茂与反对党领袖会面，席间透露"日美汽车贸易顺差"是谈判症结。与其他 国家一样，日本汽车及零部件被加征25%关税，钢铁铝产品则面临50%税率。 "日美均有不可妥协的国家利益，保护汽车产业利润是日本核心诉求。"赤泽亮正强调。 日本最高贸易谈判代表表示，日本不会紧盯所谓"对等关税"恢复最高税率的日期，这表明这个亚洲国家 已经做好了谈判可能会拖延的准备。 "为避免误解，我需明确我从未说过7月9日是日美谈判的最后期限。"日本经济振兴大臣赤泽亮正 （Ryosei Akazawa）周五在东京对记者表示，"日美正通过多种渠道定期沟通，将持续探讨最有效方案 并展开恰当磋商。" 当被问及"日本是否寻求延长全面关税起征 ...