Group 1 - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is set to announce an upgrade to its Graviton 4 chip, increasing network bandwidth to 600 Gbps, which AWS claims is the highest specification in the public cloud [2] - Graviton 4, designed by Amazon's Annapurna Labs, is part of its custom chip strategy aimed at competing with traditional semiconductor giants like Intel and AMD [2] - The real competition lies in the artificial intelligence infrastructure sector, where AWS is directly challenging Nvidia [2] Group 2 - AWS has invested $8 billion in Project Rainier, an AI supercomputer built for the startup Anthropic, which utilizes over 500,000 Trainium chips [3] - Although Nvidia's Blackwell chip outperforms Trainium 2, AWS claims its chips offer better cost-performance ratios [3] - AWS's supply capacity is strong, but demand for these chips currently exceeds supply, indicating a robust market interest [3] Group 3 - With the upcoming Graviton 4 upgrade and the Trainium chips used in Project Rainier, AWS aims to control the entire technology stack of AI infrastructure, from network architecture to training and inference [3] - The success of mainstream AI models like Claude 4 being trained on non-Nvidia chips raises the question of how much market share AWS can capture from Nvidia [3] - The release schedule for the Graviton 4 upgrade will be announced by the end of June [4]

Group 1 - Barclays analysts raised Nvidia's target price to $200, indicating a potential upside of 38% and a market capitalization of approximately $4.9 trillion, driven by the deployment progress of the new Blackwell AI platform and optimistic future profitability [2] - Nvidia is considered to have the "greatest upside potential in the second half of the year" among the companies covered by Barclays, with healthy utilization rates for the Blackwell platform and positive supply-demand dynamics anticipated for the second half of 2025 [2] - Analysts expect Nvidia's data center revenue to grow by a mid-teens percentage on a quarter-over-quarter basis in October and January, while sales to China and the previous generation Hopper chips are expected to be "essentially zero" [2] Group 2 - The development of the next-generation Blackwell Ultra chip is progressing as planned, with a "small" number expected to enter the supply chain by the end of the current quarter and mass production anticipated in the third quarter [3] - The large shipment of Blackwell and the launch of the Ultra chip are expected to help Nvidia improve its gross margin in the second half of the year, despite a decline in adjusted gross margin from 78.9% last year to 61% in the latest quarter [3] - Analysts believe that Nvidia, as the leading supplier of AI accelerators in the data center sector, has the potential to recover its gross margin from the current low 70% range back to the mid-70% target range [3]

由于关税前景、油价走势及其对通胀的影响加剧市场不确定性，美联储官员可能无法按此前预期在今年 实施两次25个基点的降息。 AmeriVet Securities美国利率交易策略主管格雷格·法拉内洛（Greg Faranello）称，周四凌晨市场将聚 焦"点阵图及其与美联储通胀预测的关联"。 他在电话中表示，若美联储预测2025年仅有一次降息，这将被视为"更鹰派"，可能推高2年期国债收益 率等短期利率，"但对部分投资者而言或成买入机会。美债收益率已横盘两个月，市场正处于'未知'状 态。"他还指出，美联储今年甚至可能完全不降息。 在美联储本周发布政策声明前，市场高度关注2025年基准利率预测中值。自3月以来，美联储的点阵图 显示年底前将有两次降息，但联邦基金期货交易员目前认为美联储兑现此预期的概率仅37.7%，金融市 场或面临预期落空的冲击。 法拉内洛认为，交易员可能忽略2026-2027年利率预测，因通胀前景不确定性过高。此外，由于鲍威尔 任期明年到期，届时特朗普将物色继任者，市场对其发布会的反应或有所削弱。"利率总体趋势向下， 但速度存疑。" （文章来源：金十数据） 特朗普4月2日宣布对多数进口商品征收10%基 ...

流媒体巨头奈飞(NFLX.O)宣布，将于今年晚些时候在费城和达拉斯推出以热门剧集为主题的沉浸式场 馆"奈飞House"，并计划未来在更多城市开设。 奈飞已经在流媒体领域取得统治地位，如今正将目光投向主题乐园市场，试图成为新的行业巨头。 奈飞此举是效仿迪士尼(DIS.N)和康卡斯特(CMCSA.O)旗下NBCUniversal的步伐，这两家公司的主题公 园业务都为其带来了可观的收入和利润。 拓展流媒体之外的新增长引擎有望助力奈飞实现上述目标，这也正是迪士尼和康卡斯特通过主题公园业 务提升业绩的方式。 2024年，迪士尼总营收为914亿美元，其中超过三分之一来自"体验事业部"，该部门包括主题乐园与邮 轮业务。环球影城主题公园则为康卡斯特贡献了86.2亿美元的营收，以及29.5亿美元的息税折旧摊销前 利润（Ebitda），在其总营收1,237亿美元和调整后Ebitda381亿美元中占据重要比重。 2025年以来，奈飞股价已累计上涨37.7%，市值达到5,221亿美元，远超迪士尼的2,129亿美元和康卡斯 特的1,296亿美元。 （文章来源：金十数据） 奈飞首席营销官MarianLee表示："这是真正让粉丝梦想成真的 ...

这番言论发表之际，中东冲突不断升级，已导致原油价格飙升。 行长植田和男周二表示，日本央行近期的重点是日本经济面临的下行风险，预计美国关税的冲击将在今 年下半年加剧，这表明该行并不急于恢复加息。 尽管投资者在本周日本央行的政策会议上关注的焦点是其放缓缩减债券刺激规模的鸽派决定，但该行也 为为何应坚持加息提供了充足的论据。 瑞穗证券预计，近期燃料成本的上涨将在今年秋季左右将日本核心消费通胀推高多达0.2个百分点，并 可能加剧面临更高汽油和水电费账单的家庭的通胀预期。 这将叠加在已经上涨的大米和食品价格之上，日本4月份的整体通胀率已被推高至3.6%——远高于日本 央行2%的目标。 但他表示，物价不仅存在下行风险，也存在上行风险，并补充说，日本央行不应排除食品价格上涨导致 持续、基础更广泛的通胀的可能性。 日本央行在再次加息前可能会有一次漫长的停顿，但它也对不断扩大的、可能埋下过高通胀种子的物价 压力发出了警告，从而为年内的行动留下了空间。 "加上已经上涨的食品价格，如果伊朗和以色列紧张局势引发的油价波动持续下去，可能会影响通胀预 期和基础通胀，"他在日本央行做出符合普遍预期的维持利率不变的决定后告诉记者。"因此，我 ...

Core Points - The Trump administration is advancing another round of tariffs, which trade experts believe have stronger legal grounds than previous tariffs imposed on various countries [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to announce results of investigations into industries deemed critical to national security, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and key minerals, likely leading to tariffs on foreign-made products in these sectors [1][2] - The current 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum are impacting nearly $200 billion worth of goods, which is almost four times the amount during Trump's first term [1] - The expansion of tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act is seen as a potential move towards near-global tariffs, affecting a wide range of imported goods [2] Industry Impact - The anticipated tariffs on pharmaceuticals are expected to encourage companies to relocate production back to the U.S. [2] - The scope of the Section 232 tariffs has broadened to include consumer goods such as dishwashers and washing machines, which are now classified as critical to national security [2] - Ongoing investigations under Section 232 are injecting uncertainty into trade negotiations, as countries are wary of committing to agreements while these investigations are pending [5] Economic Implications - The current approach to tariffs may lead to increased inflation risks, as the range of products affected has expanded significantly compared to previous tariffs focused on upstream metals [6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for manufactured steel cans and tin products has already risen by 8.7% this year, indicating potential inflationary pressures from the new tariffs [6] - The potential outcomes of the expanded tariffs could include reduced product variety, inflation, or disrupted demand due to reliance on imported raw materials [6]

美加官员本周将继续磋商，美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）在特朗普返美后留加。 白宫称正推动双边协议，并以日、印、欧的持续会谈为证，但一些外国官员称美方"信号混乱"。若如特 朗普近期言论所暗示的那样，关税主要作为财政收入来源，那么贸易伙伴认为"取消关税的谈判空间将 更小"。 特朗普在此前离会后称"欧盟仍未给出公平报价"，指责这个27国集团"多年来态度强硬"，称"要么达成 好协议，要么继续缴税"。知情人士称，欧盟贸易专员马罗什·谢夫乔维奇周一与格里尔在峰会期间会 面，并将于本周访美，但双方立场仍"差距悬殊"。冯德莱恩称，她与特朗普已指示团队"加速工作以达 成公平协议"。 尽管政府官员此前称"协议近在咫尺"，但除周一正式宣布与英国达成此前披露的贸易协定外，美国未宣 布任何其他协议。 墨西哥、印度、韩国领导人周二抵会却未见到提前离会处理中东冲突的特朗普。墨西哥总统克劳迪娅· 辛鲍姆（Claudia Sheinbaum）在社交媒体称与特朗普通话，双方同意合作解决"多方面关切问题"。 据加方官员透露，加拿大曾提出"增加军费开支换取美国取消50%钢铁铝关税及汽车进口税"的方案，以 缓解本国产业压力 ...

Core Insights - Precious metals have shown strong performance this year, with gold, silver, and platinum all returning over 20%, significantly outperforming traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and the dollar [1] - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to heightened risk aversion, concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit, and a shift towards de-dollarization by foreign central banks amid changing political dynamics following Trump's return to the White House [1] - Gold has risen approximately 27% since 2025, while U.S. Treasuries have failed to provide traditional safe-haven benefits, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [1] Precious Metals Performance - Gold, silver, and platinum have all significantly outperformed traditional safe-haven assets, with platinum seeing a year-to-date increase of over 35% [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Gold Trust have seen inflows exceeding $11 billion this year, with SPDR Gold Trust ranking 13th in the ETF industry with nearly $7 billion in assets [1] Silver and Platinum Opportunities - Investment opportunities in silver and platinum are highlighted, with silver recently surpassing $37 per ounce, marking a new high since 2012, yet still below its historical peak of $50 per ounce in 2011 [2] - The gold-silver ratio has recently decreased from 100:1 but remains above the long-term average of 60:1, indicating potential for silver investment [2] - Silver's dual role as an industrial and safe-haven asset positions it uniquely, with demand driven by applications in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices [2] Market Trends and Demand - The demand for platinum is also on the rise due to supply shortages and increased demand for platinum jewelry, driven by high gold prices [3] - The slowdown in electric vehicle adoption is expected to prolong the presence of internal combustion engines, increasing the demand for platinum and palladium in catalytic converters [3]

Group 1 - Israel's "Arrow" missile defense system inventory is nearing depletion, posing a significant challenge to its ability to counter Iranian long-range ballistic missiles if the conflict is not resolved quickly [1] - The U.S. has been aware of Israel's defense system production issues for months and has been reinforcing Israel through multi-dimensional defense assets [1] - The Pentagon has deployed additional missile defense assets to the region since the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, but there are concerns about the rapid consumption of U.S. missile defense systems [1] Group 2 - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the use of the "Fateh-1" hypersonic missile in a recent operation, claiming it signifies the beginning of the end for Israel's legendary defense [2] - The Iranian missile strike is described as a powerful message to Israel, indicating that Iran has complete control over Israeli airspace [2] - An Iranian official reported the downing of an Israeli F-35 fighter jet, although Israel has not confirmed this incident [2]

北京时间周四凌晨2:00，美联储将公布利率决定和最新经济预测摘要（SEP），随后美联储主席鲍威尔 将于2:30举行新闻发布会。 市场普遍预期联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将把利率维持在4.25%-4.5%不变。路透社最新调查显 示，105位受访经济学家中有103位预计将维持利率不变，另有2位预计将降息25个基点。 在同一份调查中，105位经济学家中有59位预测美联储将在下个季度（可能在9月）恢复降息，而60%的 经济学家预计今年将有两次降息，这与3月的点阵图中值一致，也与货币市场定价相对吻合，后者预计 年底前将放松46个基点。 Newsquawk在其展望中指出，鉴于特朗普关税政策对经济影响的持续不确定性，美联储可能继续采 取"观望"态度，并密切关注将与利率决定一同发布的最新经济预测摘要；其中，2025年的点阵图将成为 关注焦点，目前该图预示今年将有50个基点的降息。 正如今年绝大多数委员会成员反复强调的，明确的信息是：目前没有明显的立即调整政策的必要，采取 耐心的方法是最佳选择。未来公布的数据最终将弥合在通胀和增长/就业方面存在的分歧观点。因此， 正如杰富瑞集团所指出的那样，"观望"比"先发制人"更好。 最近 ...