北京时间周四凌晨2:00，美联储将公布利率决定和最新经济预测摘要（SEP），随后美联储主席鲍威尔 将于2:30举行新闻发布会。 市场普遍预期联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将把利率维持在4.25%-4.5%不变。路透社最新调查显 示，105位受访经济学家中有103位预计将维持利率不变，另有2位预计将降息25个基点。 在同一份调查中，105位经济学家中有59位预测美联储将在下个季度（可能在9月）恢复降息，而60%的 经济学家预计今年将有两次降息，这与3月的点阵图中值一致，也与货币市场定价相对吻合，后者预计 年底前将放松46个基点。 Newsquawk在其展望中指出，鉴于特朗普关税政策对经济影响的持续不确定性，美联储可能继续采 取"观望"态度，并密切关注将与利率决定一同发布的最新经济预测摘要；其中，2025年的点阵图将成为 关注焦点，目前该图预示今年将有50个基点的降息。 正如今年绝大多数委员会成员反复强调的，明确的信息是：目前没有明显的立即调整政策的必要，采取 耐心的方法是最佳选择。未来公布的数据最终将弥合在通胀和增长/就业方面存在的分歧观点。因此， 正如杰富瑞集团所指出的那样，"观望"比"先发制人"更好。 最近 ...

Group 1 - The likelihood of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announcing a rate cut after this week's policy meeting is very low, following the pattern of his three predecessors [1] - Powell's term will end in May next year, and he aims to maintain his anti-inflation credibility and political independence as he concludes his tenure [1] - Recent data shows both inflation and the economy are cooling, with political pressure from the Trump administration being a key factor affecting the Fed's actions [1] Group 2 - The market expects the Fed to maintain stable rates in June and July, but may revise economic and rate forecasts this week [2] - Investors are keen to find clues that could lead to the next rate cut, especially given the overall health of the U.S. economy despite a slow cooling [2] - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 index has averaged a 16% increase in the last 12 months of the previous three Fed chairmen's terms [2]

Core Insights - The focus on the Federal Reserve's "dot plot" reflects uncertainty regarding interest rate predictions for 2025, with market expectations leaning towards no change in rates during the upcoming meeting [1][2] - The dot plot, which represents individual policymakers' predictions for year-end rates, may not accurately reflect economic conditions or the Fed's response to data [1][3] Group 1: Dot Plot Significance - The dot plot's median prediction for rate cuts could significantly influence market narratives, with a potential shift from two cuts to one if just two officials adjust their forecasts [2] - The dot plot has been criticized for creating confusion during unexpected economic conditions, as it cannot fully convey the inherent uncertainties faced by policymakers [3] Group 2: Potential Reforms - There is a growing sentiment among officials to reassess the dot plot's effectiveness as a communication tool, with suggestions to stop publishing it in favor of a broader range of predictions [3][4] - A compromise could involve discontinuing the dot plot while still providing a range of rate predictions and a "central tendency" value, which could mitigate overemphasis on median predictions [4] Group 3: Economic Considerations - Recent tariff policies have introduced variability into the Fed's predictions, with rising import tariffs posing new inflation risks and affecting confidence in rate cut timelines [5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff levels and labor market conditions has led to a cautious approach in maintaining rate predictions, as any adjustments could misrepresent the rapidly changing economic landscape [5]

Group 1 - Record futures bets have been accumulated by U.S. rate traders, speculating that after Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, the Federal Reserve will adopt a more dovish policy stance immediately [1] - The speculation about the successor to Powell leading immediate rate cuts stems from Trump's ongoing criticism of Powell for not lowering rates [1][2] - Futures bets have increased significantly since Trump indicated he would soon nominate a successor, with a focus on the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation [1][2] Group 2 - Standard Bank's Steven Barrow noted that Trump may choose a successor who is more in favor of loose monetary policy, which could complicate the confirmation process in Congress [2] - Analysts, including Gavekal Research's Will Denyer, suggest that Trump's early nomination of a Fed chair could lead to investor focus on the "shadow" Fed chair's statements and Powell's signals for nearly a year [2] - The futures market is seeing heavy selling of the March 2026 SOFR contracts while buying the June 2026 contracts, indicating a bet on rate cuts during that period [2][3] Group 3 - On Monday, futures position volume reached a record 108,649 contracts, with open interest for March and June 2026 contracts at their highest levels in the current policy cycle [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to focus on officials' forecasts, with the median dot plot predicting one rate cut in 2025 [3] - Traders anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will introduce approximately 43 basis points of easing by the end of the year, with the first cut likely in October [3]

Group 1: Commodity Market Insights - Citigroup predicts gold prices will fall below $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, with a target range of $2500-$2700 by mid-2026 due to weakening investment demand and improved global economic outlook [1] - Citigroup expects Brent crude oil prices to trade around $70-$80 per barrel in the near term, while maintaining a long-term forecast of $60-$65 per barrel [2] - Bank of America warns of declining foreign demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, with custodial assets dropping over $60 billion since April [3] Group 2: Economic Policy and Market Impact - Morgan Stanley suggests that the "Beautiful America" bill may increase the deficit without significantly boosting economic growth, predicting a fiscal drag on GDP in the medium term [2] - Dutch Bank analysts indicate limited upside potential for the U.S. dollar, as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices may not provide sufficient support [4] - German Bank analysts note that the recent strength of the dollar is primarily driven by rising oil prices rather than its safe-haven status [5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts continued rapid economic growth in Q2, driven by strong industrial and service sector performance, with a focus on consumer demand and investment trends [8] - CITIC Securities identifies a long-term growth trend in the controllable nuclear fusion industry, supported by favorable policies and increased financing [8] - CITIC Securities anticipates that recent policy changes in drug and medical supply procurement will benefit high-quality innovative companies in the pharmaceutical sector [8] Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - Zheshang Securities predicts a dual bull market for stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, driven by improved economic conditions and supportive policies [9] - Huatai Securities highlights the potential for a surge in oil transportation rates due to increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global shipping supply chains [10] - Tianfeng Securities recommends focusing on high-elasticity industries such as storage and AI, anticipating optimistic growth in the semiconductor sector [10]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.7%, S&P 500 down 0.84%, and Nasdaq down 0.9% [3] - European stock indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down 1.12%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.46%, and France's CAC40 down 0.76% [3] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 0.34%, closing at 23,980.3 points, with a total trading volume of 202.1 billion HKD [3] Commodity Prices - Spot gold rose by 0.14%, closing at 3,389.49 USD/ounce, while spot silver surged by 2.32%, reaching 37.13 USD/ounce [5] - WTI crude oil increased by 5.38%, closing at 73.75 USD/barrel, and Brent crude oil rose by 6.31%, closing at 77.01 USD/barrel [5] Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate passed a stablecoin bill, indicating a regulatory move towards digital currencies [11] - Trump announced that drug tariffs are imminent, which may impact pharmaceutical companies [11] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales for May were weaker than expected, but consumer spending remains supported by robust wage growth [2] - The Federal Reserve indicated that it would have been prepared to cut interest rates this week if not for the risks posed by tariffs [2] Company-Specific Movements - Tesla shares fell by 3.88%, reflecting broader market trends [3] - In Hong Kong, several new consumption concept stocks declined, while brain-computer interface stocks saw significant gains, with Nanjing Panda Electronics up 38% [3][4] Industry Trends - The innovative drug sector has been under pressure, with several stocks in this category experiencing declines [4] - The battery and port shipping sectors showed positive performance, indicating potential growth areas [4]

Group 1 - The EU's top diplomat warns that U.S. military intervention in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran could risk dragging the entire Middle East into war [1] - The EU emphasizes that diplomacy, rather than military action, is the best way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons [1] - U.S. President Trump has downplayed the possibility of a ceasefire and is focused on achieving a "real resolution" to the nuclear dispute with Iran [1] Group 2 - The EU is in contact with both Iran and Israel to help de-escalate tensions, as regional stability is in everyone's interest [2] - The EU plans to push for a reduction in the G7's price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel, particularly in light of the current tensions in the Middle East [2] - This proposal aims to further tighten restrictions on Russia's financial income, although it faces opposition from the U.S. and hesitation from some countries without Trump's support [2]

这一决策延续了3月暂停"联合反俄破坏与虚假信息行动"的趋势——当时有媒体报道称，部分国家安全 机构已停止相关协作。 尽管如此，工作组的解散并不排除特朗普转向强硬的可能性。"该小组本是为总统'若想对俄更强硬'准 备选项，"一名官员表示。 共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）等盟友一直公开呼吁对俄实施新一轮全面制裁，指责普 京拒绝美国停火提议、持续攻击平民目标，"证明其冥顽不灵"。但特朗普既称"正在考虑制裁"，又反复 批评俄乌"双方均有责任"。 在周一加拿大七国集团（G7）峰会首日，特朗普直言"十年前将俄罗斯逐出八国集团是错误"，这一表 态加剧了欧洲对其战略倾向的疑虑。消息人士称，欧洲官员私下担忧：工作组解散或预示美国将削减对 乌支持，削弱北约"集体防御"凝聚力。 而在工作组内部，成员曾探讨如何"激励或施压哈萨克斯坦等国加强制裁执行"——自2022年俄乌冲突升 级以来，这些前苏联国家被贸易商用作规避西方对俄禁运的通道。但相关方案尚未成型便随工作组解散 而搁浅。 据三名美国官员透露，特朗普政府近期搁置了其组建的跨部门工作组，该小组旨在制定策略，迫使俄罗 斯加速与乌克兰的和平谈判。 官员称，该工 ...

Group 1 - In May, U.S. retail sales experienced the largest decline of the year, primarily due to new tariff policies affecting consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector [1][3] - The retail sales month-on-month rate recorded a decrease of 0.9%, worse than the expected decline of 0.7%, with the previous value revised down from 0.1% to -0.1% [1][3] - Seven out of thirteen categories in the retail report showed declines, with significant impacts from building materials and automotive sales [3] Group 2 - Consumer confidence remains unstable due to rising living costs and high interest rates, leading to a deterioration in household financial conditions [3][4] - A recent survey indicated that 60% of respondents have cut back on spending due to concerns about a potential economic recession, particularly in dining and entertainment services [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to assess the economic impact of recent record tariff increases during their upcoming meetings, with inflation data remaining relatively mild over the past three months [4]

Group 1 - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, with significant military actions reported, including Israel's attack on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities [5] - The global oil market is on high alert due to potential supply disruptions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 20% of global oil transport [3] - The Iranian military has claimed to have launched a new round of missile attacks against Israel, indicating an intensification of hostilities [2] Group 2 - The Israeli military has reported the killing of Iran's wartime chief of staff and has conducted large-scale strikes on military targets, including weapon depots and missile launch sites [3] - Casualty reports indicate that the conflict has resulted in at least 224 deaths in Iran, primarily among civilians, while Israel has reported 24 civilian fatalities [3] - Iran's foreign minister has stated that any diplomatic efforts by the U.S. must include a demand for Israel to cease its military actions [4]