这一决策延续了3月暂停"联合反俄破坏与虚假信息行动"的趋势——当时有媒体报道称，部分国家安全 机构已停止相关协作。 尽管如此，工作组的解散并不排除特朗普转向强硬的可能性。"该小组本是为总统'若想对俄更强硬'准 备选项，"一名官员表示。 共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）等盟友一直公开呼吁对俄实施新一轮全面制裁，指责普 京拒绝美国停火提议、持续攻击平民目标，"证明其冥顽不灵"。但特朗普既称"正在考虑制裁"，又反复 批评俄乌"双方均有责任"。 在周一加拿大七国集团（G7）峰会首日，特朗普直言"十年前将俄罗斯逐出八国集团是错误"，这一表 态加剧了欧洲对其战略倾向的疑虑。消息人士称，欧洲官员私下担忧：工作组解散或预示美国将削减对 乌支持，削弱北约"集体防御"凝聚力。 而在工作组内部，成员曾探讨如何"激励或施压哈萨克斯坦等国加强制裁执行"——自2022年俄乌冲突升 级以来，这些前苏联国家被贸易商用作规避西方对俄禁运的通道。但相关方案尚未成型便随工作组解散 而搁浅。 据三名美国官员透露，特朗普政府近期搁置了其组建的跨部门工作组，该小组旨在制定策略，迫使俄罗 斯加速与乌克兰的和平谈判。 官员称，该工 ...

Group 1 - In May, U.S. retail sales experienced the largest decline of the year, primarily due to new tariff policies affecting consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector [1][3] - The retail sales month-on-month rate recorded a decrease of 0.9%, worse than the expected decline of 0.7%, with the previous value revised down from 0.1% to -0.1% [1][3] - Seven out of thirteen categories in the retail report showed declines, with significant impacts from building materials and automotive sales [3] Group 2 - Consumer confidence remains unstable due to rising living costs and high interest rates, leading to a deterioration in household financial conditions [3][4] - A recent survey indicated that 60% of respondents have cut back on spending due to concerns about a potential economic recession, particularly in dining and entertainment services [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to assess the economic impact of recent record tariff increases during their upcoming meetings, with inflation data remaining relatively mild over the past three months [4]

Group 1 - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, with significant military actions reported, including Israel's attack on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities [5] - The global oil market is on high alert due to potential supply disruptions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 20% of global oil transport [3] - The Iranian military has claimed to have launched a new round of missile attacks against Israel, indicating an intensification of hostilities [2] Group 2 - The Israeli military has reported the killing of Iran's wartime chief of staff and has conducted large-scale strikes on military targets, including weapon depots and missile launch sites [3] - Casualty reports indicate that the conflict has resulted in at least 224 deaths in Iran, primarily among civilians, while Israel has reported 24 civilian fatalities [3] - Iran's foreign minister has stated that any diplomatic efforts by the U.S. must include a demand for Israel to cease its military actions [4]

看期货热点,到 3 金十期货 Eleffa 2025 06-17 15:54 6 期市动态雷达 今日主力合约涨跌分布 今日主力合约市场中50个合约上涨,26个合 约下跌。市场呈现明显的多头情绪,更多资金 和交易活动集中在上涨品种上。 主力合约涨跌排行 (%) 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% 涨幅居前的品种： 尿素2509(+3.99%)、20号胶2507(+1.55%)、乙二醇 2509(+1.55%)。这些品种受供需影响显着。 数据透视线索 26 跌幅居前的品种： 原油2507(-2.05%)、苯乙烯2507(-1.7%)、沪金 2508(-1.46%)，可能受空头力量增强或基本面利空影响。 资金流向(亿元) 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 资金流入最多的品种： 菜油2509(7.33亿元)、十年国债2509(5.0亿 元)、豆粕2509(3.7亿元)，这些品种吸引了大量主力资金关注。 资金流出最多的品种:中证1000 2506(-35.23亿元)、沪深300 2506(-33.3亿元)、中证500 2506(-25.22亿元) ...

有"美联储传声筒"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos最新撰文表示，如果不是因为关税对物价构成的 风险，有充分的理由认为，鉴于近期通胀的改善，美联储本周本应准备降息。然而，预计美联储官员们 将在周四延续其观望姿态。 在本次会议上，美联储官员将评估经济如何应对史无前例的大规模加征关税的最初几个月。尽管过去三 个月的通胀数据一直温和，但官员们仍担心自3月份以来宣布的关税将如何扰乱经济学家所说的"通胀预 期"。 通胀预期很重要 通胀预期——即消费者和企业对未来通胀的看法是看不见也摸不着的。研究人员通过进行调查或从投资 者对未来通胀的押注中推断出这一指标。 Timiraos表示，通胀预期既难以衡量，又对美联储至关重要。经济理论表明，它在决定实际通胀方面扮 演着关键角色。 他解释道，其逻辑是这样的：如果零售商预期他们明天的成本会更高，他们今天就会提高价格以提前应 对。房东也会对租金做同样的事情。如果工人们预期他们的生活开支会上涨，他们现在就会争取更高的 工资。 "如果每个人都预期通胀会上升，那么它就真的会上升。而这正是美联储所担心的，"瑞银集团的经济学 家Alan Detmeister说。 反之亦然。如果家庭 ...

Group 1 - Israel's recent airstrikes on Iran were aimed at preventing the country from advancing its nuclear weapons program, but U.S. intelligence suggests that Iran is not actively seeking nuclear weapons and is still years away from being able to produce and deliver them [1][2] - Despite significant damage to Iran's Natanz facility, the Fordow facility remains intact, which is crucial for Iran's nuclear ambitions, and experts indicate that Israel lacks the capability to destroy it without U.S. military support [1][8] - The U.S. military and intelligence community have differing interpretations of Iran's nuclear intentions, with some U.S. officials expressing urgency regarding Iran's potential nuclear capabilities [5][6] Group 2 - The U.S. is repositioning military assets in the region to support Israel and ensure the protection of U.S. forces, with the Nimitz carrier strike group moving towards the Middle East [4][3] - There is a debate within the Trump administration regarding the level of U.S. involvement in Israel's actions against Iran, with some advisors advocating for a more isolationist approach while others push for military support [2][3] - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised concerns about Iran's accumulation of uranium, which is close to weapon-grade levels, indicating a potential for Iran to manufacture nuclear weapons if it chooses to do so [6][8]

Group 1 - The persistent rise in oil prices may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance, as it could weaken demand and impact the resilient labor market [1] - Historically, sudden spikes in oil prices have only temporarily increased inflation, and the Fed typically overlooks this; however, the current economic slowdown makes the threat to growth and employment more significant than the temporary inflation boost [1] - The market may take weeks to gain clarity on oil price trends, with baseline predictions suggesting the Fed may initiate rate cuts in December [1] Group 2 - Analysts warn that prolonged conflicts and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $130 per barrel, potentially driving U.S. inflation back to around 6% [2] - Rising gasoline prices, which have been a key factor in the recent cooling of inflation, could reverse trends, leading to a delay in the Fed's first rate cut until early 2026 [2] - Higher energy costs may trigger a chain reaction in supply chains, causing prices of other goods and services to rise, potentially resulting in a stagflation scenario [2]

美国此前与伊朗举行了多轮核谈判，但特朗普也警告称，若外交失败将考虑军事选项，而以色列已公开 推动袭击。 以色列对伊朗的突然袭击可能扰乱中东石油供应，令欧佩克+近期增产原油的决定成为焦点。 今年以来，尽管原油价格下跌，但沙特领导的产油国集团仍出人意料地加速恢复闲置产能。这引发了市 场猜测：该联盟是否受到白宫的施压，为其与伊朗的潜在冲突做准备。 知情人士称，沙特能源大臣阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼（Abdulaziz bin Salman）亲王私下表示，沙特不 会重蹈2018年覆辙——当时特朗普说服欧佩克+在打击伊朗出口前增产，但随后又向许多伊朗石油进口 国授予豁免。这些举动导致油价在2018年12月跌至每桶50美元以下，远低于许多产油国的预算盈亏平衡 点。 分析师称，以色列袭击伊朗后油价大涨，这将缩小特朗普处理其他迫在地缘问题的政策空间，并引发对 美国通胀的担忧。 ClearView能源伙伴公司负责人凯文·布克（Kevin Book）表示，"欧佩克+的供应增加为以色列袭击伊朗 可能造成的供应中断留出了缓冲，但这也为对俄新制裁创造了空间——不过无法同时应对两者，"他称 若油价持续飙升或中东供应面临中断，特朗普可能动 ...

据美国媒体NBC报道，特朗普总统曾反对以色列对伊朗采取军事行动，更倾向于通过谈判解决问题， 而不是动用武力。 此外，乌克兰总统泽连斯基上周也曾不经意地宣布，一批原本供乌使用、超过2万枚的美制反无人机导 弹已被转用于中东。 但是，在空袭开始前的大约一周内，他被说服了，认为以色列对伊朗核浓缩能力的高度警觉是有道理 的。来自以色列、美方及国际原子能机构的信息都显示，伊朗的核计划取得重大进展，特朗普不希望在 他任内让伊朗获得核武器。 在特朗普与内塔尼亚胡通话之后不久，五角大楼还曾下令欧洲司令部向以色列附近部署一艘海军驱逐 舰，以应对来自德黑兰可能的反击，与早前已部署的两艘驱逐舰及一个航母打击群会合。 特朗普一贯主张让美国摆脱海外冲突，并希望通过外交方式结束俄乌冲突和加沙地区的战事，尽管至今 未见成效。过去几个月，特朗普政府一直敦促以色列不要对伊朗采取行动，并警告称美国不会提供支 持。 但NBC的报道透露，以色列愈发焦虑，对特朗普设想的中东和平方案缺乏信心。内塔尼亚胡及其战时 内阁并不相信美国在阿曼与伊朗进行的谈判，尽管华盛顿方面公开声称协议已近在咫尺。 报道称，在听取了参谋长联席会议主席、空军上将丹·凯恩（Dan C ...

Group 1 - The White House is discussing a potential meeting between U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif to address a diplomatic initiative involving the nuclear agreement and ending the conflict between Israel and Iran [1] - This meeting is part of President Trump's last diplomatic efforts to avoid war and return to negotiations, with a senior U.S. official confirming that discussions are being considered [1] - The U.S. views the destruction of Iran's Fordow underground enrichment facility as a key leverage point in negotiations, with Trump considering the use of a large "bunker buster" bomb as a critical bargaining chip [1] Group 2 - Trump believes he can reach an agreement with Iran, especially given Iran's weakened position in negotiations [2] - Reports indicate that Iranian military commanders have stated that attacks on Israel will escalate in the coming hours, with hundreds of drones set to target Israel [2] - Trump has called for Iranian civilians to evacuate Tehran, which has sparked rumors in Israeli media about U.S. involvement in the conflict [2] Group 3 - French President Macron mentioned that during the G7 summit, Trump discussed the necessity of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and that the U.S. has proposed a meeting with Iran [3]