Group 1 - The White House is discussing a potential meeting between U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif to address a diplomatic initiative involving the nuclear agreement and ending the conflict between Israel and Iran [1] - This meeting is part of President Trump's last diplomatic efforts to avoid war and return to negotiations, with a senior U.S. official confirming that discussions are being considered [1] - The U.S. views the destruction of Iran's Fordow underground enrichment facility as a key leverage point in negotiations, with Trump considering the use of a large "bunker buster" bomb as a critical bargaining chip [1] Group 2 - Trump believes he can reach an agreement with Iran, especially given Iran's weakened position in negotiations [2] - Reports indicate that Iranian military commanders have stated that attacks on Israel will escalate in the coming hours, with hundreds of drones set to target Israel [2] - Trump has called for Iranian civilians to evacuate Tehran, which has sparked rumors in Israeli media about U.S. involvement in the conflict [2] Group 3 - French President Macron mentioned that during the G7 summit, Trump discussed the necessity of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and that the U.S. has proposed a meeting with Iran [3]

Core Points - The "Trump Card" visa program, led by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, aims to grant legal residency in the U.S. to foreign investors for a fee of $5 million, with nearly 70,000 registrations already received [1][2] - The program is designed to attract business leaders and companies seeking U.S. residency for themselves or their employees, potentially generating significant revenue for the U.S. Treasury [1][2] - The initiative is intended to replace the existing EB-5 visa program, which has a lower investment threshold of $1.8 million, and aims to expedite the issuance of a larger number of visas [2] Group 1 - The "Trump Card" will be made of gold and is designed to appeal to investors with its aesthetic qualities, reflecting Trump's personal preferences [1] - The program's initial concept was proposed by billionaire donor John Paulson, aiming to raise funds to help address the U.S. national debt of $36 trillion [1] - The Commerce Department plans to issue tens of thousands of "Trump Cards" this summer, with the potential to generate $1 trillion in revenue from the issuance of 200,000 visas [2] Group 2 - A CEO from a global tech company expressed interest in purchasing over 100 "Trump Cards," viewing the program as a means to attract top global talent, particularly entrepreneurs, engineers, and scientists [2] - The program's success may hinge on the tax treatment offered to cardholders, as concerns about U.S. tax obligations for foreign investors have been raised [3] - The White House is still finalizing key details of the program, including the tax structure for cardholders and potential restrictions on applicants from certain countries [2]

欧洲央行行长拉加德发表最新文章表示，全球秩序正在深刻变化，美元主导地位不再稳固，欧洲迎 来"全球欧元"时刻。 要让欧元发挥其全部潜力，欧洲必须强化三大支柱：地缘政治信誉、经济韧性，以及法律与制度的完整 性。 首先，欧元的全球地位依托于欧洲在全球贸易中的角色。欧盟是世界最大的贸易体，是72个国家的首要 贸易伙伴，覆盖全球近40%的GDP。这一点也体现在欧元作为计价货币的使用比例上，约为40%。欧盟 应充分利用这一地位，推动新的贸易协定。 拉加德指出，欧元是全球第二大储备货币，但要提升其国际地位，欧洲需加强地缘政治可信度、经济韧 性和法律及制度完整性。欧盟需利用其贸易优势，推动新贸易协定，完成单一市场建设，减少监管负 担，并改革机构结构，以增强欧元的全球影响力。 拉加德文章全文 我们正见证着全球秩序的一场深刻转变：开放市场和多边规则正在破裂，甚至作为该体系基石的美元主 导地位也不再稳固。保护主义、零和思维和双边权力博弈正在取而代之。 这种不确定性正在损害欧洲经济，而欧洲经济深度嵌入全球贸易体系，3000万个就业岗位因此岌岌可 危。 但这一变局同样为欧洲提供了更多掌握自身命运的机会，也为欧元赢得全球更高地位创造了条 ...

Group 1 - Central banks are experiencing a record surge in gold accumulation, with 95% of surveyed banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking the highest level since the survey began eight years ago [1] - The proportion of central banks actively managing their gold reserves is projected to rise from 37% in 2024 to 44% in 2025, with risk management becoming the second-largest motivation for increasing gold holdings [4] - Since the end of 2022, international gold prices have doubled, with central bank purchases being a core driver of this long-term price increase [4] Group 2 - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset for central banks, accounting for approximately 20%, while the share of dollar assets has declined to 46% [5] - Over half of emerging market central banks cite gold's "no political risk" as a key reason for increasing their holdings, with 78% emphasizing its "no default risk" [6] - Despite the cautious examination of the dollar and U.S. debt markets by central banks, there is no immediate risk of the dollar losing its dominant position [6]

Group 1 - The European Commission plans to propose a law to ban imports of Russian natural gas and LNG by the end of 2027, circumventing opposition from member states like Hungary and Slovakia [1] - The proposal aims to solidify the EU's commitment to ending its long-standing energy relationship with Russia, which has been a major supplier for decades [1] - The law will prohibit imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG starting January 1, 2026, with some contracts allowed to extend their terms [1] Group 2 - Existing long-term contracts for Russian natural gas will be banned from January 1, 2028, effectively ending the use of Russian gas in the EU by that date [1] - Companies like TotalEnergies and Naturgy hold Russian LNG contracts that extend into the 2030s, and EU LNG terminals will gradually stop servicing Russian clients [3] - The proposal may be adjusted before its release, and companies can invoke "force majeure" clauses to terminate Russian gas contracts without legal disputes [3] Group 3 - Slovakia and Hungary maintain close political ties with Russia and oppose the energy sanctions, claiming that transitioning to alternative energy sources will raise electricity prices [4] - Austria has indicated that the EU should be open to resuming Russian gas imports if a peace agreement is reached regarding the Ukraine conflict [4] - The proposal will be based on a legal framework that requires a reinforced majority of member states and support from the European Parliament to bypass vetoes from certain countries [4] Group 4 - Approximately 19% of Europe's natural gas still comes from Russia, a significant decrease from 45% before 2022, with countries like Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and Spain still importing Russian LNG [5] - The French Minister of Industry expressed support for the plan, emphasizing the need for solutions that ensure maximum security for businesses [5]

市场普遍认为周四凌晨美联储会议的结果已无悬念，预测美联储维持利率不变的概率超过99%，但一些 专家担忧美联储将"错过最佳行动时机"。 罗兰和米斯金预计，美联储可能等到8月杰克逊霍尔会议才会释放明确信号，周四的会议或下调核心 PCE通胀预期但维持实际GDP预估。他们警告："依赖数据的美联储若持续观望关税影响数月，终将重 蹈政策滞后的覆辙"。 道富环球顾问首席经济学家莫库塔（Simona Mocuta）主张今夏降息以维系经济增长，当前情境与2024 年9月紧急降息前如出一辙。 她上月接受采访时指出："尽管存在关税风险，但劳动力市场和整体经济比一年前脆弱得多"。联邦雇员 裁减等负面因素尚未体现在数据中，过晚降息可能加剧衰退风险。 目前市场定价反映2025年降息1-2次、2026年再降2次，但多位市场专家对此发出警示。 文艺复兴宏观研究经济主管杜塔（Neil Dutta）表示，虽不预期通胀反弹，但劳动力市场显露的疲态更 令人忧心：失业救济申请持续增加、招聘速率放缓、薪资停滞。3月美联储预测2026年底失业率为 4.3%，如今市场共识已上调至4.6%。 杜塔周一在研讨会上强调："根据失业率走势，他们本应为2026年规划 ...

据今日俄罗斯（RT）报道，以色列驻莫斯科大使哈尔佩林（Simona Halperin）表示，以色列希望彻底摧毁伊朗的核计划，并消除其未来重启该计划的能 力。任何关于和平谈判的考虑都必须在伊朗丧失追求该项目的能力之后，现在考虑谈判还为时过早。 哈尔佩林周一在以色列大使馆的一次简报会上对媒体说："以色列正在攻击领导伊朗核计划的个人和机构、那些领导旨在摧毁以色列的核计划的人，以及所 有可能对以色列构成军事威胁的人。" 当被RT问及俄罗斯总统普京提出在西耶路撒冷和德黑兰之间进行斡旋时，这位外交官强调，以色列目前最关心的是摧毁伊朗的核计划。 哈尔佩林告诉RT，"以色列的首要任务"是消除伊朗继续推行核计划的"愿望、能力和意图"。 她补充说，现在考虑谈判还为时过早。 周二的市场情绪被各路消息反复蹂躏，亚盘关于特朗普呼吁所有人离开德黑兰、美军大规模部署中东、霍尔木兹海峡油轮起火，以及特朗普中断G7行程紧 急返回白宫并坐镇战情室的报道，让市场担忧"有大事即将发生"，但随后美媒又称特朗普已经指示副总统万斯和中东特使向伊朗提出会谈，市场的紧张情绪 随之缓解。 显然，哈尔佩林的这些狠话被报道后又会让投资者再度纠结。同时，特朗普否认了 ...

Group 1 - The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicated that approximately 15,000 centrifuges at Iran's Natanz facility are likely severely damaged or destroyed due to power outages caused by Israeli airstrikes [1] - The IAEA's assessment suggests that the external power interruption poses a critical threat to the high-speed rotating centrifuges, with at least two of Iran's operational uranium enrichment facilities rendered inoperative [1] - The Fordow enrichment facility, located deep in the mountains, reportedly showed no damage, although the IAEA has not yet conducted on-site inspections [1] Group 2 - Four buildings at the Isfahan nuclear facility were reported damaged, including a uranium conversion plant essential for producing uranium hexafluoride, which is required for centrifuges [2] - The damaged structures include a central chemistry laboratory, a uranium conversion plant, a Tehran reactor fuel manufacturing facility, and an under-construction facility for processing uranium tetrafluoride to metallic uranium [2] - There are indications that underground spaces at Isfahan, which may store a significant portion of Iran's highly enriched uranium, remain unaffected, but further inspections are needed for a comprehensive assessment [2]

Group 1 - Three vessels or oil tankers are reported to be on fire near the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the 2019 tanker attacks, which were attributed to Iran [1] - The fire is believed to have been caused by a collision between two oil tankers, ADALYNN and Front Eagle, although the exact cause remains unconfirmed [1] - Following the news, international oil prices initially rose but later fell after reports of potential negotiations between the Trump team and Iran [2] Group 2 - There has been an increase in electronic interference affecting navigation systems of commercial vessels in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, posing operational challenges [3] - The financial risks associated with the ongoing Middle East conflict are primarily linked to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would significantly impact global oil transportation [5] - Historical context indicates that Iran and its proxies have a history of targeting maritime shipping, with previous incidents leading to significant disruptions in the region [7][8] Group 3 - The U.S. Fifth Fleet may intervene to protect maritime trade if Iran and its allies escalate their actions, which could increase the risk of direct U.S. involvement in the conflict [9] - Despite the tensions, Brent crude oil prices have remained relatively stable around $75 per barrel, indicating that investors may not be overly concerned about immediate disruptions [10] - Investors may be underestimating the risks based on historical patterns, as past conflicts between Iran and Israel have often de-escalated quickly [11]

SHMET 网讯：6月17日，日本央行宣布维持目标利率在0.5%不变，符合市场预期，连续第三次会议按兵不动。 另外，该行以8比1的投票结果决定了债券缩减计划，保持现有债券缩减计划不变直至2026年3月，从2026年4月起，每个季度每月减少约2000亿日元的日 本国债购买量。 政策声明全文 1．在今天举行的货币政策会议上，日本央行政策委员会一致决定，在下次会议前的期间内，采用以下货币市场操作指引：日本央行将引导无担保隔夜 拆借利率维持在约0.5％的水平。 2．关于削减日本国债（JGB）购买规模的问题，日本央行以8比1的多数投票决定一项计划，拟将其每月日本国债的公开市场购买规模逐步削减，并在 2027年1月至3月期间将该规模降至约2万亿日元。原则上，从现在起到2026年1月至3月，每个季度削减约4000亿日元；自2026年4月至6月起，每个季度削减 约2000亿日元（详见附件）。 3．尽管局部领域仍存在疲软，日本经济整体呈现温和复苏的态势。全球经济整体也保持温和增长，但在一些地区由于各自的贸易及其他政策影响，出 现了部分疲软。 尽管受价格上涨等因素影响，消费者信心疲弱，但在就业和收入环境改善的背景下，私人消费仍维 ...