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中美经贸会谈,揭示了东南亚发展的第三种可能性
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-11 03:03
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving trade dynamics in Southeast Asia amid the intensifying geopolitical competition between the US and China, highlighting the region's strategic importance and the implications for its economic development [3][4][5]. Group 1: Southeast Asia's Economic Growth - Southeast Asia has emerged as a significant player in the global economy, with ASEAN being the fifth-largest economy by purchasing power parity (PPP), increasing its share of the global economy from 5.0% in 2001 to 6.4% in 2023 [4][5]. - The region's economic growth has outpaced the global average, with Southeast Asian countries averaging a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the global average of 3.0% since the 21st century [4][5]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Patterns - ASEAN's share of global goods exports has risen from 6.2% in 2001 to 7.6% in 2023, indicating its growing importance in international trade [5]. - The article notes a shift in trade patterns, with Southeast Asian countries participating in both the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) [5][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The US is actively supporting economically viable Southeast Asian nations to replace China's role in the regional production chain, reflecting a strategic shift in the geopolitical landscape [4][30]. - The article emphasizes that the geopolitical competition between the US and China is reshaping Southeast Asia's trade relationships, with countries like Vietnam benefiting from the ongoing tensions [25][29]. Group 4: Vietnam's Strategic Position - Vietnam has rapidly integrated into the regional production network since joining the WTO in 2007, with its exports increasingly comprising foreign value added, reaching over 48% in 2022 [18][20]. - The US has committed to assisting Vietnam in developing its semiconductor and rare earth industries, which are critical areas in the US-China competition [25][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that Southeast Asia is entering a new phase of trade dynamics, necessitating a new theoretical framework to understand the evolving economic relationships in the context of great power competition [28][29]. - Despite the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions, Southeast Asia's internal market development remains crucial, with China maintaining a significant role in the region's economic landscape [30][31].
电影市场这样,电影人全责
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-11 03:03
Core Viewpoint - The article critiques the current state of the film industry, highlighting a significant decline in box office performance and a lack of genuine storytelling from filmmakers, leading to a disconnection with audiences [1][2][11]. Group 1: Box Office Performance - The box office for the recent May Day holiday saw a 50% year-on-year decline, reverting to levels seen in 2017, with only two films surpassing 100 million yuan [2][11]. - The underperformance of films this year, except for "Nezha 2," is attributed to the content itself rather than external factors like marketing or star power [2][11]. Group 2: Filmmaking Trends - There is a consensus that the techniques used by veteran Hong Kong directors have become outdated, leading to poor box office results for their recent films [4][5]. - The film "Water Dumpling Queen," despite its potential for a compelling narrative, is criticized for its lack of depth and reliance on clichéd storytelling methods [5][6]. Group 3: Audience Expectations - Audiences are increasingly discerning, with a higher standard for what constitutes a worthwhile film experience, as evidenced by the stark contrast in box office performance between "Nezha" and other films [11][12]. - The article suggests that filmmakers need to move beyond superficial trends and engage with deeper societal issues to resonate with contemporary viewers [10][12]. Group 4: Impact of Short Videos - The rise of short video content has influenced filmmakers to speed up their storytelling techniques, but this has not necessarily translated into better film quality [8][9]. - Films attempting to critique the short video economy often fail to deliver a coherent message, reflecting a lack of understanding of the complexities involved [9][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The film industry may face a prolonged period of adjustment, with a continued lack of innovative content and a polarized market where only a few films achieve significant success [13][14]. - There is hope for a resurgence of quality films in the future, but this will require a shift in how stories are told and a deeper connection with audience experiences [12][14].
Labubu已经成了当代人的新佛牌
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-10 13:44
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of Labubu, a plush toy character from Pop Mart, which has become a cultural phenomenon in both Eastern and Western markets, symbolizing good luck and personal empowerment through its unique design and marketing strategies [4][40][52]. Group 1: Labubu's Cultural Impact - Labubu is described as a character that connects with both Western celebrities and Eastern cultural practices, being referred to as a "perfect match" with luxury items like the Hermès Birkin bag [4]. - The character is marketed not just as a toy but as a talisman for good fortune, with consumers associating it with positive energy and luck [12][21]. - The character's design and backstory allow consumers to project their desires and aspirations onto it, enhancing its appeal [36][37]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The article highlights a shift in consumer behavior where individuals are increasingly seeking psychological comfort through purchases, such as lucky charms and decorative items [29][64]. - The popularity of blind box toys like Labubu reflects a growing trend of consumers wanting to personalize their belongings and express individuality [58][60]. - The article notes that the demand for plush toys and decorative charms is particularly strong in East Asian cultures, contrasting with Western preferences for more rigid and direct expressions of style [61][62]. Group 3: Cultural Differences in Consumption - The article emphasizes the cultural differences in how consumers in Eastern and Western markets perceive and utilize decorative items, with Eastern consumers favoring plush and soft materials while Western consumers lean towards harder materials [60][61]. - The phenomenon of "Kidult" culture in East Asia, where adults seek comfort in childhood toys, is highlighted as a significant factor driving the popularity of characters like Labubu [62][64]. - The article also discusses how the rise of social media and influencer marketing has contributed to the rapid spread of Labubu's popularity in both markets [46][49].
看到大学生被AI检测折磨,我有话想说
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-10 13:44
以下文章来源于数字生命卡兹克 ,作者数字生命卡兹克 数字生命卡兹克 . 努力分享一些很新、很酷的AI干货,愿我们永远对世界保持好奇。 我其实一直都很赞成AI的快速发展,很少会看到,让我眉头一皱的AI应用场景。 甚至会有点出离了愤怒。 因为可能本心是好的,但是这个方法,却把好心,变成了一个让我非常痛心却又觉得无奈的事件。 这个事情就是,马上毕业季了,很多的学校, 为了整治学术不端行为,所以对学生们的论文,除了原来的查重检测之外,引入了AIGC检测。 大概就是用一些所谓的AI检测工具,来检测你的论文里,AI生成的含量有多少。 如果你的AIGC检测比例,如果高于一定的指标,就会无法毕业。 起初我以为这种只是一些造谣的图,在我实际查证之后,我发现,是真的。 已经有多所大学,启动了AIGC检测,并且有明确的指标。 本文来自微信公众号: 数字生命卡兹克 ,作者:数字生命卡兹克,原文标题:《看到现在的毕业生被AIGC查重折磨,我有话想说。》,题图来自: AI生成 比如4月9日,四川大学教务处发布的《关于开展2025届本科毕业论文(设计)学术不端行为检测工作的通知》中,就明确提到了,20%和15%这两个 比例。 不止一个,还 ...
从杂货铺到千亿巨头,三得利做对了什么?
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-10 13:44
Core Viewpoint - Suntory has successfully transformed from a small wine shop into a beverage giant with over 160 billion RMB in revenue by leveraging localization strategies and understanding consumer preferences in Japan and abroad [3][4]. Group 1: Development Stages of Suntory - The history of Suntory can be divided into four key phases: 1. 1899-1920: Establishment of Japanese wine, achieving a breakthrough from 0 to 1 2. 1920-1945: Introduction of Japanese whisky, creating a second growth curve 3. 1945-1989: Transitioning whisky from a high-end product to a mass-market item 4. 1989-present: Dual breakthroughs in both affordable and premium whisky, revitalizing the Japanese whisky category [5][23][42]. Group 2: Key Strategies for Success - Suntory's success is attributed to its ability to localize Western products, adapting them to Japanese tastes and consumption habits, which is evident in its wine and whisky offerings [4][20]. - The company identified the opportunity for "domestic substitution" during the Meiji Restoration, leading to the development of local products that catered to Japanese consumers [10][11]. - Suntory's approach included modifying recipes, enhancing packaging, and creating suitable consumption scenarios, which allowed it to penetrate the market effectively [12][16][22]. Group 3: Wine Development - The initial failure in the wine market was due to high prices and taste preferences that did not align with Japanese consumers, leading to a market share of less than 1% for wine at the time [8][9]. - Suntory's breakthrough came with the introduction of "Akadama Port Wine" in 1907, which achieved over 60% market share by being affordable and appealing to local tastes [19]. - The company utilized local ingredients and production methods to significantly reduce costs, making its products accessible to the general public [18]. Group 4: Whisky Development - The introduction of whisky faced challenges due to cultural preferences and market positioning, leading to the initial failure of the "White Label" whisky [28][29]. - Suntory's successful "Kaku Bottle" whisky launched in 1937 was characterized by a smooth taste that resonated with Japanese consumers, capturing 70% of the market by 1945 [41]. - The company shifted its strategy to make whisky a part of everyday life, promoting it in various consumption scenarios, including dining [50][59]. Group 5: Recent Challenges and Innovations - The Japanese whisky market faced a decline due to economic changes and shifting consumer preferences, leading to a 40% drop in consumption from its peak in 1983 [70][72]. - Suntory's recent strategies include the "Highball Revival Plan," which aims to position whisky as a more accessible alternative to beer by introducing ready-to-drink canned whisky products [75][76].
“软实力”理论奠基者逝世,在美国软实力危机时
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-10 10:24
软实力衰退与否,有不同视角 作为软实力概念的奠基者,他的离开正值一个微妙的时刻—— 美国的国际软实力似乎正在以一种诡异的方式,从内部被破坏。 以下文章来源于嬉笑创客 ,作者CB 嬉笑创客 . 谈创业事,谈经济,谈生活 本文来自微信公众号: 嬉笑创客 ,作者:CB,头图来自:视觉中国 国际政治的泰斗、哈佛肯尼迪学院前院长约瑟夫·奈 (Joseph Nye) 在5月6日去世,享年88岁。没有国际政治学生能够避开这位老爷子,我也一样。 但要注意,视角不同,对软实力的判读会完全不同。 对于老特的MAGA基本盘来说,美国的软实力可能正如日中天、万国来朝。对于这群人而言,原先有强大的软实力但毫不运用,就像段誉有着震古烁 今的内力储备但不知如何使用,是彻头彻尾的浪费,直到老特上台,犹如萧峰战神附体,把80%的实力打出了150%的威力,是真实软实力的大提 升。 这也是老特班子的内宣口径。 但在国关学者和其他国家来看,尽管约瑟夫·奈在历史上曾多次反思过美国的领导地位是否行将衰落,他很可能从来没像今天一样,强烈地感受到下 坡路的威胁如此迫在眉睫。在去世前,在老特的上一任期,他的看法可以用他自己的语言概括:"川普担任总统四年,对我 ...
月暗走入狭路,百度烟花影处,字节依旧跳动|AI趋势报告
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-10 10:24
以下文章来源于Xsignal AI&APP全息数据洞察 ,作者X博士 Xsignal AI&APP全息数据洞察 . Xsignal AI全息与APP全息数据平台:提供超100万个AI和APP应用的深度数据洞察,实时扫描全新应用,T+5日的数据自动更新。通过市场份 额、用户规模、用户行为、用户画像及增长趋势等关键指标,全面解析AI与APP应用的生态。 本文来自微信公众号: Xsignal AI&APP全息数据洞察 ,作者:X博士,原文标题:《季载录·春丨Xsignal 全球AI应用行业季度报告2025丨三万字完整 版丨Xsignal深度文章》,题图来自:AI生成 一、AI应用生态的数像万千 1. 季度总览 海外市场:高基数下的显著增长。 2025年第一季度, 海外AI应用月活跃用户(MAU)规模已攀升至9.80亿,单季度增长率达15.08%。 在用户基数逼 近10亿门槛的背景下,仍能实现超15%的环比增幅,印证了海外市场仍处于高速扩张周期。 当前行业呈现两大核心趋势: 一方面,AI应用正突破早期 技术受众圈层,加速向普通消费者市场渗透;另一方面,若延续当前季度增长动能, 预计2025年末全球活跃用户规模将跨越2 ...
成人杂志贩卖机末路:衰老国家血液与色情机器
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-10 10:24
Core Viewpoint - The article explores the nostalgia and cultural significance of adult magazine vending machines in Japan, highlighting their decline in the digital age and the unique memories they evoke for a generation that grew up with them [11][40]. Group 1: Cultural Significance - The adult magazine vending machines served as a rite of passage for many young Japanese, representing a gateway to the adult world and a unique youth culture characterized by collective purchasing efforts among peers [16][19]. - The machines became a symbol of a bygone era, with many individuals reminiscing about their experiences and the emotional connections formed around these vending machines [14][38]. Group 2: Historical Context - The peak of adult magazine vending machines occurred in the 1970s, with their numbers reaching 23,260 by 1976, contributing to a ¥500 billion industry at that time [57]. - The introduction of these machines coincided with Japan's economic boom and the rise of automation, marking a significant cultural shift in consumer behavior [56][57]. Group 3: Current Trends - Despite the prevalence of digital content, there is a resurgence of interest in these vending machines, particularly among older generations who find it challenging to adapt to online shopping [41][40]. - The search for these machines has become a nostalgic journey for many, reflecting a broader trend of valuing past experiences in an increasingly digital world [40][73].
中国争抢的第三座迪士尼乐园落户中东背后
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-10 03:05
Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a new Disney theme park in Abu Dhabi signifies a shift in Disney's global strategy, moving away from traditional markets like China to capitalize on emerging markets in the Middle East and South Asia [3][12][28]. Group 1: Disney's New Park in Abu Dhabi - Disney has officially partnered with Miral Group to build a new theme park in Abu Dhabi, marking it as the seventh member of Disney's global theme park portfolio [3][5]. - The park will feature a blend of classic Disney elements and new attractions tailored to the Middle Eastern climate and culture, representing a customized version for the region [5][6]. - This development comes after years of speculation about a potential third Disney park in China, which has not materialized, highlighting a missed opportunity for Chinese cities [6][8]. Group 2: Financial and Operational Model - The financial model for the Abu Dhabi park involves the local government covering all construction costs, while Disney will provide creative input and brand licensing, reflecting a shift towards a lighter asset management approach [10][11]. - This contrasts with previous Disney parks, where the company bore more financial risk, indicating a more cautious investment strategy [12][21]. - The CEO of Disney, Bob Iger, personally visited Abu Dhabi multiple times to finalize the deal, suggesting a strategic focus on profitable ventures [13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategic Implications - The decision to establish a park in Abu Dhabi aligns with Disney's broader goal of tapping into new middle-class markets, particularly in regions like the Middle East and South Asia [22][23]. - The park's location is strategically advantageous, being within a four-hour flight from one-third of the world's population, making it accessible to a large potential customer base [22]. - The emergence of Abu Dhabi as a destination for a Disney park reflects a competitive global tourism landscape, where various international IPs are vying for the attention of new middle-class consumers [34][35]. Group 4: Economic Impact and Future Prospects - The introduction of the Disney park is expected to significantly boost Abu Dhabi's tourism profile, similar to the economic impacts observed in other cities with Disney parks [30][31]. - The park is part of a larger entertainment ecosystem on Yas Island, which includes other major attractions, enhancing the overall tourist experience and economic benefits for the region [30][32]. - The competition for international middle-class tourists is intensifying, with various entertainment brands looking to establish their presence in emerging markets [35].
华为兑现了五年前的阳谋
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-10 03:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Huawei's launch of the HarmonyOS on PCs, highlighting the challenges it faces in competing with the entrenched dominance of Windows in the operating system market [3][4][9]. Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - Huawei has achieved a 11% market share in China's PC market with 4.3 million units shipped in 2024, ranking second [5]. - The push for HarmonyOS PCs is driven by the need for a consistent user experience across devices, especially after the transition of mobile and IoT devices to HarmonyOS [6][7]. - The HarmonyOS PC aims to fill a gap in the domestic "Xinchuang" (信创) product market, which focuses on self-sufficiency in technology to avoid external risks [9][12]. Group 2: Product Features and Development - The HarmonyOS PC has been developed over five years with over 10,000 engineers and 2,700 core patents [7]. - The initial product, Matebook Pro, features a user interface that combines elements from both Windows and HarmonyOS mobile systems, aiming for a more streamlined user experience [14][17]. - Huawei has adapted 300 applications for the HarmonyOS PC, with over 2,000 more in the pipeline, although it still faces a significant gap compared to the millions of applications available on Windows [19][21]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages and Challenges - The native AI capabilities of HarmonyOS may provide a competitive edge, as Windows struggles to integrate AI due to its legacy code and system complexity [26][28]. - The article notes that while HarmonyOS PCs are positioned to capture the government and enterprise market, competing in the consumer market against Windows will be a long-term challenge, potentially taking five to ten years [34][36]. - User habits established over decades with Windows present a significant barrier to adoption for HarmonyOS PCs [37]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite the challenges, the long-term potential for HarmonyOS PCs is promising, especially given the 900 million users of HarmonyOS across smartphones and IoT devices since its launch in 2019 [38].