Economic Slowdown & Inflation - The economy is slowing, with housing services inflation gently declining, non-housing services inflation coming down, and wage growth decreasing [3][4] - Consumer spending is cooling, further suggesting a slowdown in the real underlying economy [4] - The ultimate effects of tariffs on inflation are uncertain and may not be known for quarters or a year or more [4] - The average effective tariff being paid at the border is around 10%, climbing month after month, but still short of the 16% headline rate [6] - It is uncertain how high core goods inflation will get and whether it will spill over into other categories and be persistent [11] Monetary Policy - It may become appropriate to start adjusting the federal funds rate in the near term due to the slowing economy [5] - Two rate cuts this year still seem reasonable, but the actual number could vary depending on the effect of tariffs on inflation [13][14] - If tariffs have a bigger effect on inflation, the Fed could do one or more rate cuts and then pause, or even raise rates again [14] - The FOMC is aware of the potential need to adjust course (cut and then raise rates) due to the uncertain effects of tariffs [17][18] Data & Credibility - The BLS data is subject to revisions and declining survey response rates, requiring the Fed to look at other data sources [21][22] - There are concerns about the credibility of economic data following the firing of the head of the BLS, but it is difficult to fake economic reality [25][28] - Wage growth is declining, indicating a cooling labor market [22] Tariffs Impact - Companies have not taken up prices in the way they did during the pandemic, possibly due to the complexities of tariffs compared to the pandemic [7][8] - Some companies hoarded inventory to protect themselves and their customers from tariffs [9][16] - The market is discounting that the tariffs, at least as we know them today, stay that way [12]

Joining us right now, former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. He's currently a partner at Solomare Capital and vice chairman at Teneo. And it's good to see you, sir.Morning. Uh I'm curious what you make of the dialogue here as it relates to both the tariff issue and the Fed issue. We have so many former Treasury Secretaries.Everybody's trying to figure out what's really going on. Everyone's a little worried about whether the numbers are even going to be real in the future. What do you think.Well, I think we' ...

Within the next week or so, we're going to be announcing tariffs on specifically. This is a, you know, this is a separate class than the 15% tariffs on sort of everything. These are excluded classes.I call them I like to call them excluded like steel, aluminum, etc. We're going to be announcing on uh semiconductors and chips, which is a separate category because we want them made in the United States. That was President Trump uh yesterday right here on Squawkbox. The remarks uh comes just came just hours be ...

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - Recent data strengthens the case for future interest rate cuts, contingent on controlled inflation and potential labor market weakening [1][2] - The market widely anticipates interest rate cuts [2] - Concerns arise that President Trump's rationale for rate cuts, aiming to lower the cost of US debt, could compromise the Fed's independence [3][4] Current Economic State - The economy is currently in a "pretty good" state [7] - Initial GDP estimates for the year were 1.5%-2% growth [7] - S&P 500 companies experienced 6.5% revenue growth, with 80% exceeding estimates for the quarter [8] - Companies are increasing capital expenditure at a robust pace of 5% compared to last year [8] - The consumer remains strong, supported by positive consumer confidence indices [8][9] - AI is positively impacting company earnings [9] Future Economic Challenges & Opportunities - Tariffs pose a significant headwind, potentially impacting company margins as they may not continue to absorb increased costs [10][11] - Companies initially avoided immediate price increases, learning from the pandemic experience where aggressive pricing led to volume declines [12][13] - AI is already contributing positively to GDP, estimated at 0.25%-0.5% [14] - M&A activity is currently on the upswing and expected to continue in the next two quarters, potentially reaching $3.3 trillion this year [14][15] - Regulatory environment remains closer to the Biden administration [17] Banking & Media Sectors - The regulatory environment may improve for certain industries, particularly financial institutions, potentially leading to banking deals [17][18][19] - The banking sector is fragmented, with a compelling reason to responsibly have another 1 or 2 big banks [18] - Media industry consolidation will continue due to the impact of non-traditional players [19][20]

Financial Performance - McDonald's earnings per share and revenue exceeded expectations [1] - Global same store sales increased by 38%, surpassing the street's expectation of 26% [1] Menu Innovation & Strategy - McDonald's is accelerating the pace of menu news with IP tie-ins [3] - The company is pulsing value more aggressively than it has been coming out of the pandemic, with the $5 meal deal demonstrating traction [4][5] - Product momentum and product cycle continue to build, with organizational rejiggering to address this [7] - McDonald's is focusing on product innovation, hiring restaurant experience captains to focus on specific menu categories [11] - New product launches are expected, including McDonald's Land, Adult Happy Meal, and a kid's Happy Meal [13] Market & Consumer Trends - International stores outperformed US stores in growth [2] - Customers in the United States are spending more per visit [2] - Value offerings are resonating with families and individuals [6] - McDonald's is regaining its footing after a period of being "offsides" on value and lacking strong product innovation post-COVID [8][9][10] Future Outlook - The company expresses confidence that the current product cycle will persist throughout the year [12][13] - Potential future menu items include Monopoly promotions and the return of the Chicken Big Mac [14]

Company Performance - Zometry's stock price has returned to its initial public offering (IPO) price of $44, which occurred approximately four years prior in 2021 [1] - The company has more than tripled its top-line revenue since its IPO [2] - Gross margins have increased from approximately 24% to over 40% [2] - The company has transitioned from losing money to generating profit [2] Industry & Market Dynamics - Zometry operates an AI-powered marketplace connecting buyers and suppliers of custom manufacturing [4] - The custom manufacturing market is characterized as large, fragmented, opaque, lacking information, and historically analog [4] - Zometry's AI-driven marketplace approach enhances agility, speeds up production cycles, reduces costs and lead times [5] - Despite macroeconomic challenges, Zometry has continued to gain market share due to its superior marketplace model [5] - Digitization is a secular shift occurring in manufacturing, and AI is acting as a force multiplier [7] - Global geopolitical issues are accelerating the trend towards marketplace approaches and digitization [7]

How much does this story play into how you view the results coming out of Disney and what they should be saying about their future prospects and forecast. >> Yeah, I I don't I don't think it's the most meaningful piece of the puzzle. I I I think the the conversations probably two years ago that Disney was having were really trying to get the leagues to take equity stakes to sort of cement ESPN across a wide array of leagues to make ESPN sort of the de facto streaming destination for sports.That didn't happe ...

Steve, how much has this earning season so far either met, exceeded, or fell short of your personal expectations. So, I think it's met our expectations. I think it's surprising the market to the upside, right.So, the beat rates have been not just broad, but you're beating by about 8%, which is stronger than what was expected. And what's important, and this is rare this time of year, is you're seeing fullear estimates for this year and next year start to rise, which supports this idea of an economy that had ...

Disney earnings are out this morning. Uh earnings beat estimate revenue just slightly below. Joining us now is Hugh Johnson.Disney CFO Julia Borston uh is here as well. The stock um Hugh it's good to see you and I I don't know where you want to start. maybe start with earnings because I think uh on on the other news the stock was uh reacting positively is up at I think 122 now I think 117 116 uh after I guess maybe the Julia pointed out you've been beating revenue uh estimates right in recent quarters uh so ...

Financial Performance - Uber reported earnings of $063 per share, matching estimates, with revenue of $1265 billion, exceeding expectations [1] - The company authorized a $20 billion share buyback [1] - Trip growth reached 18%, totaling 33 billion trips, and gross bookings grew by 18% in constant currency, amounting to $47 billion [3] - EBITDA increased by 35% to $21 billion, marking a record for the company [3] - Free cash flow in the past year amounted to $85 billion [4] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Consumer demand remains strong in both mobility and delivery sectors in the US [5] - Uber is modulating insurance cost increases and passing savings onto consumers, which doesn't affect profitability [6] - In the US, trip growth accelerated in July compared to Q2, and Q3 trip growth in the US mobility sector is expected to be faster than Q2 [7] - Uber employs a barbell strategy, offering savings to price-sensitive consumers while also catering to the premium demographic [9] - Premium business is up over $10 billion, with 30% growth, and the reserve business is up 50% [11] Autonomous Technology and Competition - The Baidu deal is primarily focused on autonomous technology, aiming to tap into a $1 trillion total addressable market (TAM) [12] - Uber is collaborating with Waymo in Austin and Atlanta, with Waymo in Atlanta being busier than 99% of drivers in Atlanta [13] - Tesla is viewed as both a potential competitor and partner in the autonomous vehicle market [15]