证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 美国关税驳回或加速电新设备出口 电新样本公司 26E 美国收入占比 16%以内，需求刚性无惧关税波动 近年电新设备对美出口需求高增，主要由于海外供应端无法满足急迫的刚性 需求。以变压器为例，如我们此前预测（参见《2026 年度策略-电力的超级 周期》，2025/12/15），Tier1 市场变压器供需缺口至少到 27 年将持续位于 高位。我们梳理 14 家电新样本企业 26E 美国收入占比 16%以内，刚性需求 在关税压力测试下已得到验证，如果关税条件边际改善，有望进一步受益于 高毛利的美国需求。 风险提示：美国关税政策超预期变动；退税执行滞后的风险。 电力设备与新能源 增持 (维持) 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 26 年 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院判定特朗普依据《国家紧急经济权利法》 （IEEPA）征收的关税违法，而特朗普政府在当日提出替代性的 122 条例关 税方案。华泰宏观认为 IEEPA 关税被取消仅仅是开始，特朗普政府将出台 一系列的后续政策，可能使用 338、232、301 条款来进一步加征关税，或 将保持总关税水平不变（参见《 ...

证券研究报告 基础化工 美将磷系农资列入战略资源影响深远 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 基础化工 增持 (维持) | 庄汀洲 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570519040002 | zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com | | SFC No. BQZ933 | +(86) 10 5679 3939 | | 杨泽鹏* | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570525070014 | yangzepeng@htsc.com | | | +(86) 755 8249 2388 | 行业走势图 (10) 5 20 35 50 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | (当地币种) | 投资评级 | | 川恒股份 | 002895 CH | 50.73 | 买入 | | 云天化 | 600096 CH | 44.66 | 买入 | | 中海 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The satellite launch industry is entering an accelerated phase, with significant growth expected in satellite deployment plans, including over 200,000 satellites submitted by China and 1 million by SpaceX, indicating a potential increase in the global satellite market from tens of MW to hundreds of MW and GW levels [15][21][22] - The space photovoltaic market is currently valued at 30 MW, representing only 2% of the terrestrial photovoltaic market, but could expand significantly under various scenarios, potentially reaching 100 GW and generating up to 9 times the value of the terrestrial market [3][18] - The competition for orbital resources is intensifying, with low Earth orbit (LEO) communication satellites becoming the primary focus, as they offer lower latency and broader applications compared to traditional satellites [16][35] Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Growth and Satellite Launches - The global satellite launch volume is expected to reach a historical high in 2025, with a projected increase of 72.5% in new satellites launched, totaling approximately 4,330 satellites [22][21] - China's satellite deployment plans are ambitious, with a significant increase in the number of satellites expected to be launched by 2030, potentially exceeding 10,000 annually [21][27] Section 2: Space Photovoltaics Market Potential - The current space photovoltaic market is small, but three scenarios could lead to substantial growth: 1. A dense launch of communication satellites could push the market to 40% of the terrestrial photovoltaic market 2. Initial networking of computing constellations could create a demand for 10 GW of space photovoltaics, surpassing terrestrial values 3. Dominance of computing satellites could lead to a demand of 100 GW, increasing market value significantly [3][18] Section 3: Technological Developments and Supply Chain Opportunities - The report highlights the need for technological advancements in space photovoltaic systems, particularly in materials and efficiency, as traditional technologies face limitations in space environments [8][17] - The supply chain for space photovoltaics is expected to see increased demand for packaging materials, which are significantly more valuable in space applications compared to terrestrial uses [19][18] - The shift towards flexible solar wings is anticipated to replace rigid designs, creating new opportunities for materials such as UTG glass and CPI films [19][18]

证券研究报告 渣打集团 (2888 HK) 港股通 25Q4 净利息收入（NII）环比 25Q3 提升 8%，主要源自 25Q4 HIBOR 的暂 时性利好。25Q4 净息差 2.09%，环比 25Q3 提升 15bp。25Q4 生息资产收 益率 4.40%，环比 Q3 下滑 12bp，25Q4 计息负债成本率 2.16%，环比 Q3 下滑 25bp。25A 净利息收入同比上升 1%至 112 亿美元。公司指引 2026 年净利息收入或同比持平。分地区看，25A 中国香港、中国内地、新加坡、 韩国税前利润（经调口径）分别同比+40%、-24%、+39%、-24%，中国香 港及新加坡地区业绩保持快速增长。 财富管理优异，环球市场波动 25Q4 非净利息收入同比 24Q4 提升 2%，环比 25Q3 下降 21%，部分财富 方案业务及环球银行业务的增长被环球市场业务的非经常性收入减少所抵 销。 分业务看， 25Q4 环球 银行 /环球市场 /财富方 案收入分别同 比 +9%/-15%/+20%。环球市场业务波动主因偶发性项目减少。25A 非净利息 收入同比上升 13%至 97 亿美元，主要由财富方案业务、环球银行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry [1] Core Insights - The storage supercycle remains a key theme for the semiconductor industry in 2026, driven by strong demand and limited supply [20][21] - Major technology companies are increasing their capital expenditure (Capex) forecasts, which supports the positive outlook for the storage market [22] - The report highlights the importance of advanced packaging and the potential for new technologies like CPO (Chiplet Packaging Optimization) to enhance system performance [15][14] Summary by Sections Storage Market - The storage market is entering a seller's market characterized by rising prices and demand, with DRAM ASPs increasing approximately 40% for Samsung and 20% for SK Hynix in Q4 2025 [4][20] - The report anticipates that DRAM prices will continue to rise in Q1 2026, with a forecasted increase of 90-95% for conventional DRAM [25] - Supply constraints are expected to persist, with capital expenditures focused on HBM and advanced processes rather than broad capacity expansion [21][4] Advanced Packaging - Advanced packaging is becoming a critical area of focus, with companies like Intel and Samsung investing in 2.5D/3D packaging technologies [14] - The demand for advanced packaging is expected to grow as cloud service providers increase their capital expenditures and accelerate in-house chip development [15] CPO (Chiplet Packaging Optimization) - CPO is projected to gain traction, with NVIDIA showcasing its CPO solutions that significantly enhance system-level efficiency [15] - The report notes that CPO applications are expected to transition from scale-out to scale-up, improving bandwidth density and energy efficiency [15] Capital Expenditure Trends - North American tech giants are significantly increasing their Capex forecasts for 2026, with estimates reaching approximately $655 billion, a 60% year-over-year increase [22] - This increase in Capex is expected to support ongoing demand for high-performance storage solutions and AI applications [22][24]

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 25 日 庄汀洲 石油与化工行业首席研究员 座机：010-56793939 邮箱：zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 边文姣 电力设备与新能源行业联席首席研究 员 座机：0755-82776411 邮箱：bianwenjiao@htsc.com 今日热点 基础化工：美将磷系农资列入战略资源影响深远 2026 年 2 月 18 日，特朗普政府援引《国防生产法》发布行政令，正式将磷 元素与草甘膦除草剂列为美国战略资源，以保障国内供应链安全。全球近几 年 80%的磷资源下游用于磷肥，草甘膦由于转基因抗性种子需求成为全球第 一大除草剂，二者是全球农资的核心环节。据 USGS，2025 年美国磷矿石 进口依存度 16%，主要来自秘鲁及摩洛哥。美国草甘膦本土产能充足，但考 虑厂商到对欧洲及南美的供应，仍需进口中国产草甘膦。相对而言，中国磷 矿石自给率较高，而草甘膦净出口且产能略过剩。我们认为，磷系农资列入 战略物资因美国对二者供应稳定性的强调，短期在粮价低迷需求不振背景 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1.90, reflecting a valuation premium due to its leading position in the domestic livestock industry and expected profit elasticity under the dual-cycle resonance [5][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned at the core of the dairy industry's upstream sector, with a clear and steadily improving cyclical evolution path. It is expected to be at the bottom of the industry cycle in 2025, with marginal recovery in beef prices and low raw milk prices. The apparent profit losses in the company's financial statements are gradually narrowing, showcasing cash profit resilience [1][5]. - In 2026, the company is anticipated to enter a phase of cyclical recovery, with a gradual start of dairy and meat resonance. This is expected to lead to volume and price recovery, impairment improvement, and potential merger synergies, collectively enhancing performance elasticity [3][1]. - The peak of the dual-cycle resonance for dairy and meat is projected to occur in 2028, establishing a "stable milk and strong meat" pattern, with the company's profit foundation continuously solidifying and profit elasticity expected to be fully released [1][3]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 6.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The raw milk business revenue was RMB 5.07 billion, down 0.8% year-on-year. Despite the decline in average raw milk prices, the company leveraged its industry-leading annual yield to effectively counteract price drop pressures [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 was a loss of RMB 980 million, primarily due to weak raw milk prices leading to significant non-cash losses from fair value changes in biological assets. Excluding non-cash factors, cash EBITDA was RMB 1.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [10]. 2026 Outlook - Under a neutral assumption, raw milk supply and demand are expected to be in a tight balance in 2026, with milk prices stabilizing and beef prices continuing to rise. The acquisition of China Shengmu is expected to be completed in 2026, leading to profit improvement [3][10]. - The company anticipates that the raw milk business revenue will achieve mid-single-digit growth year-on-year in 2026, benefiting from the downward trend in feed costs and steady yield improvement. If the subsequent acquisition proceeds smoothly, the herd size will increase from 470,000 to over 610,000, further releasing scale effects and synergy [10][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at RMB -0.14, RMB 0.09, and RMB 0.17 respectively, reflecting increases of 14% for both 2025 and 2026, and 22% for 2027 [4]. - The estimated tax-pre profit increment from the meat and milk cycle reversal from 2025 to 2028 is approximately RMB 3.1 billion [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1.90, reflecting a valuation premium due to its leading position in the industry and expected profit elasticity under the dual-cycle resonance [5][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a core leader in the upstream dairy industry, with a clear and steadily improving cyclical evolution path. It is expected to be at the bottom of the industry cycle in 2025, with marginal recovery in beef prices and low raw milk prices. The apparent profit losses are gradually narrowing, showcasing cash profit resilience [1][5]. - In 2026, the company is anticipated to enter a phase of cyclical recovery, with a gradual initiation of dairy and meat resonance. This is expected to lead to volume and price recovery, impairment improvement, and potential merger synergies, collectively enhancing performance elasticity [3][1]. - The peak of the dual-cycle resonance for dairy and meat is projected to occur in 2028, establishing a "stable dairy and strong meat" pattern, with a solid foundation for profitability and significant profit elasticity expected to be released [3][1]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 6.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The raw milk business revenue was RMB 5.07 billion, down 0.8% year-on-year. Despite the decline in raw milk prices, the company leveraged its industry-leading annual yield to effectively counteract price drop pressures [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 was a loss of RMB 980 million, primarily due to weak raw milk prices leading to significant non-cash losses from fair value changes in biological assets [10]. 2026 Outlook - Under a neutral assumption, it is expected that raw milk supply and demand will be in a tight balance in 2026, with milk prices stabilizing and beef prices continuing to rise. The acquisition of China Shengmu is anticipated to be completed in 2026, leading to profit improvement [3][10]. - The company is expected to achieve a mid-single-digit growth in raw milk business revenue in 2026, benefiting from the downward trend in feed costs and steady yield improvements. If the acquisition proceeds smoothly, the herd size will increase from 470,000 to over 610,000, further enhancing scale effects and synergy [10][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at RMB -0.14, RMB 0.09, and RMB 0.17 respectively, reflecting increases of 14% for both 2025 and 2026, and 22% for 2027 [4]. - The estimated tax-pre profit increment from the meat and dairy cycle reversal from 2025 to 2028 is approximately RMB 3.1 billion [3].

证券研究报告 可选消费 海外看中国：高端消费复苏启示录 可选消费 增持 (维持) 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 惠普 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090006 SFC No. BSE005 孙丹阳 研究员 SAC No. S0570519010001 sundanyang@htsc.com SFC No. BQQ696 +(86) 21 2897 2038 张霜凝* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070015 zhangshuangning@htsc.com 华泰研究 复盘 2025 年海外集团在华经营表现，我们认为我国高端消费初显回暖信号。 以 LVMH 为例，FY3Q25 中国区销售额回正，录得中-高个位数同比增长 （vs1H25 亚太区：-9%），改善趋势逐步显现。品类上看，消费者重视价 值与体验，从面子走向里子，高端服务消费领先复苏，高端商品表现分化。 拉长看 ...

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 2025 年全球气电回顾与展望：增长远 超年初预期，2026 年有望再创辉煌 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 2025 回顾:美国领跑全球燃机需求增长，供电方案呈多元化趋势 根据 McCoy,4Q25 全球燃机新签订单 34GW，同/环比+134%/+42%，创十 年以来单季度新高（>10MW 口径，下同）。2025 全年全球燃机新签订单 合计 100GW，同比+75%，增速同比加快 42pct。全球燃机需求共振，2025 全年美国市场以 159%的同比增速领跑全球，订单占比 44%；非美市场亦实 现了 40%的订单同比增速，其中亚洲、中东等区域订单占比 22%、17%。 分企业看，三大主机厂商订单高增下有所分化。我们估算 GEV、西门子能 源、MHI 2025 年新增燃机订单 30、36、24GW，同比+48%、+197%、+51%， 2025 年市占率为 30%、36%、24%，同比-5、+15、-3pct，得益于均衡的 市场布局和完备的产品矩阵，西门子能源 2025 年实现了市占率大幅增长。 数据中心订单需求持续高增，推动订单销售均价提升。以 ...